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AUD/USD-where to from here?

June 27, 2018--The Australian dollar has traded a wide up-trending range against the $US since early 2016, though appears to have broken below this range more recently. This note provides an updated valuation framework to explain recent $A behavior. The model also suggests that, under reasonable assumptions, the $A could test US71c by year-end.

$A-breaking its range

As seen in the chart below, the Australian dollar has tended to push higher since early 2016, touching just over US80c in January this year. Since then the $A has tended to decline, and recently broke below trend-line support around US76c, and is now down to around US74c. What caused this decline, and will it continue?

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Source: BetaShares


SGX launches rules for listing of dual class shares companies

June 26, 2018--Singapore Exchange (SGX) today introduced rules that make possible the listing of companies with dual class shares (DCS) structures as Singapore gears up for the New Economy.

"SGX today joins global exchanges in Canada, Europe and the US where companies led by founder-entrepreneurs who require funding for a rapid ramp-up of the business while retaining the ability to execute on a long-term strategy, are able to list. Investors who understand and agree with the business model and management of DCS companies will also have more choice," said Loh Boon Chye, CEO of SGX.

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Source: SGX


China stocks officially in bear territory, lose market cap bigger than Canada's entire economy

June 26, 2018--Trade war tensions 'create bad sentiment for the market as a whole
Shanghai's benchmark stock index plunged to its lowest level in two years, driving Asia's largest equity bourse down into official bear market territory, as concerns about a trade war with the United States sent investors scurrying to extract funds from equities.

Overall, Chinese stocks have lost about US$1.6 trillion in total value-more than the size of Canada's entire economy' since a high in January,...

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Source: South China Morning Post


IMF Staff Country Reports-The People's Republic of China: Financial Sector Assessment Program; Systemic Oversight of Financial Market Infrastructures-Technical Note

June 26, 2018--EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
China's landscape for Financial Market Infrastructures (FMIs) is one of the largest and most complex in the world. It consists of a range of payment, clearing and settlement systems, including several interbank payment systems, securities settlement systems and central counterparties(CCPs).

Many of the systems have high volumes by international comparison and are systemically important at a national level. Disruptions, both operational and financial, in one of these FMIs may significantly impact the functioning of the Chinese economy. The landscape is subject to changes, following international developments, such as the establishment of a cross-border interbank payment system (CIPS) and a CCP for over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives. The development of new, innovative products, for example, in the area of internet payments, is changing the landscape further.

view the IMF Staff Country Reports-The People's Republic of China: Financial Sector Assessment Program; Systemic Oversight of Financial Market Infrastructures-Technical Note

Source: IMF


JP Morgan Asset Management adds two to Asia Beta Strategies team

June 25, 2018--JP Morgan Asset Management (JPMAM) is expanding its Asia Beta Strategies team with two Hong Kong appointments.

Albert Chuang has relocated to Hong Kong as Portfolio Manager on JPMAM's Quantitative Beta Strategies Investment team. He is focused on quantitative research, model development and portfolio management for strategic beta and alternative risk premia strategies. He manages portfolios for both Funds and Institutional clients.

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Source: institutionalassetmanager.co.uk


Lonsec issues 'Recommended' rating for BetaShares' Hybrids Active ETF (ASX: HBRD)

June 25, 2018--Lonsec commends Fund Manager on strong understanding of the complex Australian hybrid market dynamics.

BetaShares, a leading manager of Australian exchange-traded products, has today announced its Active Australian Hybrids Fund (managed fund) (ASX: HBRD) has been awarded a 'Recommended' rating from Lonsec.

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Source: BetaShares


China's yuan eases again, set for worst week since Nov...

June 22, 2018--China's yuan fell to its lowest in more than five months against the dollar on Friday, hit by weaker central bank guidance and continuous seasonal corporate demand for the greenback. The Chinese currency, set for its worst week since November 2016, has erased all the gains it made this year.

"The losses in the yuan against the dollar this week reflect declines in the yuan basket index, with the U.S. tariff announcement a trigger," a chief dealer at a Chinese bank said. The renminbi has lost more than 1,000 pips or about 1.6 percent from last Thursday's late night close, the day before U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on Chinese goods.

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Source: newstage.com.ng


IMF Working Papers-Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies

June 21, 2018--Summary:
This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters.

The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.

view the IMF Working Papers-Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies

Source: IMF


Deeper reforms in Korea will ensure more inclusive and sustainable growth

June 20, 2018--Short-term prospects for the Korean economy are good, with an uptick in world trade and fiscal policy driving growth, but productivity remains relatively low and the country faces the most rapid population ageing in the OECD area, according to a new report from the OECD.

The latest OECD Economic Survey of Korea looks at recent economic developments, as well as the challenges to ensure that the benefits are shared by all. The Survey projects growth of about 3% for the 2018-19 period, and lays out an agenda for ensuring broader-based and more inclusive growth going forward.

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Source: OECD


Australian House Price Valuation Update: What's cheap, what's expensive?

June 20, 2018--The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics Residential Property Price Report suggests house prices eased in most capital cities in the March quarter. This note provides an update on my house price valuation estimates.

It suggests that while Sydney property remains relatively overvalued, several other capital cities now appear relatively cheap. Importantly, however, overall Australian house prices are not that expensive given the current level of interest rates.

Australian House Price Valuations
According to the ABS, the nation-wide value of "established" house prices (i.e. those on their own plot of land), fell by 0.8% in the March quarter, to be up only 2.2% over the past year.

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Source: BetaShares


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