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Bassanese Bites-The name is bond...corporate bond: neither shaken or stirred in past market downturns
December 19, 2018--The current equity market slump, including "Shocktober", has once again shown the value that bonds can play in investors' portfolios in terms of offering some downside protection.
While this may be obvious to some, what is perhaps less obvious is that compared to the traditional benchmark bond indices which are generally heavily weighted to low-yielding government bonds, some longer-duration and higher yielding corporate bond exposures have historically managed to offer even better protective benefits in these periods, whilst still offering greater income returns over time.
Fixed-Rate Bonds: The benefits of negative correlation with equities
One of the attractive features of owning fixed-rate bonds is that they generally tend to do best when equity markets are doing poorly, i.e. the returns of these two major asset classes tend to be negatively correlated.
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Source: BetaShares
December 2018 Indonesia Economic Quarterly: Strengthening Competitiveness
December 13, 2018--Indonesia's GDP growth during the third quarter remained broadly steady at 5.2%, driven by domestic demand. Investments rebounded on the back of stronger construction investment. While private consumption eased slightly, a surge in government consumption kept total consumption growth on an even keel.
Current account deficit widened to 2.7% of GDP in the third quarter. This was contributed by high crude oil prices through October and continued robust growth in equipment investment.
The Rupiah depreciated through October, with the currency reaching a trough of IDR 15,237 per USD on October 30. Year-to-September, the currency depreciated 8.2% in nominal terms and 7.6% real effective terms.
view the December 2018 Indonesia Economic Quarterly: Strengthening Competitiveness
Source: World Bank
Vietnam's economy grows robustly, but risks intensify
December 11, 2018--Vietnam's GDP growth is projected at 6.8 percent for 2018, accompanied by broad macroeconomic stability
Economic growth in Vietnam has proven resilient despite weakening external conditions, driven mainly by strong domestic demand and a dynamic export-oriented manufacturing sector.
According to Taking Stock, the World Bank's bi-annual economic report on Vietnam released today, the pace of expansion is forecast to remain at 6.8 percent this year, higher than the projected figure of 6.3 percent for emerging markets in the East Asia and the Pacific.
CESC Publishes its Latest Belt and Road Participation Report
December 11, 2018--China Exchanges Services Company Limited (CESC) today published the 2017 Report on
Belt and Road Initiative Participation by Listed Companies.
CESC will use the report to adjust the constituents of its CES Belt and Road Index (CES OBOR), an index designed to reflect the stock price performance of listed companies actively participating in the Belt and Road Initiative. The adjustments will be announced in
due course.
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Source: index.cesc.com
East Asia Needs to Adapt its Development Model to Sustain its Historic Transformation, World Bank Says
December 10, 2018--East Asia's remarkably successful development model-a combination of outward-oriented growth, human capital development, and sound economic governance-needs to be adjusted to effectively address emerging external and internal challenges, a new World Bank report says.
A Resurgent East Asia, Navigating a Changing World argues that the tremendous progress seen in the region is not guaranteed in the future. The development model that spurred the so-called East Asian Miracle will have to adapt to changing technologies, slowing trade growth, and changing country circumstances, if progress is to be sustained.
view the World Bank Report: A Resurgent East Asia< Navigating a Changing World
Source: World Bank
Japan Q3 GDP fall revised lower to 2.5% drop
December 9, 2018--Japan's economy shrank much more than initially reported in the third quarter, according to a revised estimate from Japan's cabinet office.
Gross domestic product fell at an annualised pace of 2.5 per cent in the three months through September, according to a second reading released on Monday.
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Source: FT.com
SGX reports market statistics for November 2018
December 7, 2018--Single-stock DLCs launched during month increased overall activity of listed structured products
Freight Derivatives volume hits record high
Securities
Total Securities market turnover value was at S$21.6 billion, down 11% month-on-month (m-o-m) and down 24% year-on-year (y-o-y), over 21 trading days.
There were 23 trading days in October 2018 and 22 in November 2017.
Securities daily average value (SDAV) was S$1.03 billion, down 3% m-o-m and down 21% y-o-y.
Market turnover value of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) was S$146 million, down 40% m-o-m and down 36% y-o-y.
Market turnover value of structured warrants and Daily Leveraged Certificates (DLCs) was S$2.02 billion, up 11% m-o-m and up 6% y-o-y.
There were 112 new bond listings, raising S$68.8 billion.
Total market capitalisation value of 739 listed companies stood at S$949.1 billion as of end-November 2018
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Source: Singapore Exchange (SGX)
IMF Working Papers -The Long-Run Trend of Residential Investment in China
December 7, 2018--In this paper we analyze the fundamental drivers of China's residential investment as a share of its GDP. Our analysis indicates that the economic structural changes that led to rebalancing toward consumption were the key driver of the rising residential investment to GDP ratio in China.
We project that residential investment would moderate from the current level of 9 percent of GDP to around 6 percent by 2024, and its contribution to real GDP growth would decline gradually from currently about half percent of GDP to slightly negative over this period, barring policy intervention. The decline in the growth contribution of residential investment reflects the projected somewhat slower pace of rebalancing going forward and the envisaged increases in labor costs due to demographic changes.
view the IMF Working Papers -The Long-Run Trend of Residential Investment in China
Source: IMF
IMF Working Paper-China's Bond Market and Global Financial Markets
December 7, 2018--Summary:
A cross-country comparative analysis shows that there is substantial room for further integration of China into global financial markets, especially in the case of the international bond market. A further successful liberalization of the Chinese bond market would encompass not only loosening bond market regulations, but also further developing of other markets, notably the foreign exchange market.
Even though the increased integration of China into international capital markets would increase its exposure to the global financial cycle, the costs in terms of monetary autonomy would not be large given China's size and especially under a well-articulated macroeconomic framework.
view the IMF Working Paper-China's Bond Market and Global Financial Markets
Source: IMF
IMF Working Papers-Macroeconomic Effects of Japan's Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them?
Yes, partly. This paper studies the potential role of structural reforms in improving Japan's outlook using the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) with newly-added demographic features.
Implementation of a not-fully-believed path of structural reforms can significantly offset the adverse effect of Japan's demographic headwinds-a declining and ageing population-on real GDP (by about 15 percent in the next 40 years), but would not boost inflation or contribute substantially to stabilizing public debt. Alternatively, implementation of a fully-credible structural reform program can contribute significantly to stabilizing public debt because of the resulting increase in inflation towards the Bank of Japan's target, while achieving the same positive long-run effects on real GDP. If no reforms are implemented, severe demographic headwinds are expected to reduce Japan's real GDP by over 25 percent in the next 40 years.
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