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IMF Working Papers -The Long-Run Trend of Residential Investment in China
December 7, 2018--In this paper we analyze the fundamental drivers of China's residential investment as a share of its GDP. Our analysis indicates that the economic structural changes that led to rebalancing toward consumption were the key driver of the rising residential investment to GDP ratio in China.
We project that residential investment would moderate from the current level of 9 percent of GDP to around 6 percent by 2024, and its contribution to real GDP growth would decline gradually from currently about half percent of GDP to slightly negative over this period, barring policy intervention. The decline in the growth contribution of residential investment reflects the projected somewhat slower pace of rebalancing going forward and the envisaged increases in labor costs due to demographic changes.
view the IMF Working Papers -The Long-Run Trend of Residential Investment in China
Source: IMF
IMF Working Paper-China's Bond Market and Global Financial Markets
December 7, 2018--Summary:
A cross-country comparative analysis shows that there is substantial room for further integration of China into global financial markets, especially in the case of the international bond market. A further successful liberalization of the Chinese bond market would encompass not only loosening bond market regulations, but also further developing of other markets, notably the foreign exchange market.
Even though the increased integration of China into international capital markets would increase its exposure to the global financial cycle, the costs in terms of monetary autonomy would not be large given China's size and especially under a well-articulated macroeconomic framework.
view the IMF Working Paper-China's Bond Market and Global Financial Markets
Source: IMF
IMF Working Papers-Macroeconomic Effects of Japan's Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them?
Yes, partly. This paper studies the potential role of structural reforms in improving Japan's outlook using the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) with newly-added demographic features.
Implementation of a not-fully-believed path of structural reforms can significantly offset the adverse effect of Japan's demographic headwinds-a declining and ageing population-on real GDP (by about 15 percent in the next 40 years), but would not boost inflation or contribute substantially to stabilizing public debt. Alternatively, implementation of a fully-credible structural reform program can contribute significantly to stabilizing public debt because of the resulting increase in inflation towards the Bank of Japan's target, while achieving the same positive long-run effects on real GDP. If no reforms are implemented, severe demographic headwinds are expected to reduce Japan's real GDP by over 25 percent in the next 40 years.
Cambodia Continues to Grow Despite Global Economic Challenges: World Bank
November 28, 2018-Surges in domestic consumption and exports drive the economy
While global economic prospects continue to moderate, and risks have heightened, Cambodia continues to grow, according to the latest edition of the World Bank's Cambodia Economic Update report, released today.
The growth rate is expected to be marginally higher than last year, reaching 7.1 percent in 2018, driven primarily by domestic consumption and exports.
Following a gradual recovery in the second half of 2017, Cambodia's exports surged, supported largely by strong demand in the United States and the European Union.
view the World Bank Cambodia Economic Update-Recent Economic Developments and Outlook
Source: World Bank
WAAAX vs. FAANG: How does the Aussie tech sector stack up against its US counterparts?
November 28, 2018--The Australian technology sector has enjoyed solid return performance in recent years, so much so that some of the leading companies have been given their own acronym-the so-called "WAAAX" stocks.
As this note demonstrates, however, our home grown technology boom appears somewhat frothier than is the case in the United States, where share price performance among the "FAANG" stocks has been even stronger and appears more fundamentally justified.
Australian technology vs. the NASDAQ-100 Index
The table below identifies the top companies in the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Sector and the US-based NASDAQ-100 Index* respectively.
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Source: BetaShares
IMF Working Paper-Japan: Selected Issues
November 27, 2018--THE IMPACT OF CONSUMPTION TAX INCREASES AND THEIR POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR JAPAN1
Japan's VAT rate is set to increase in October 2019 to 10 percent. Given past experiences of VAT rate increases, there are concerns regarding its impact on the economy.2 Carefully designing policy measures and communicating them clearly to the public are paramount to attenuate any negative outcomes in the short term.
A simple, single-rate VAT would efficiently raise tax revenues and support the government's objective of achieving fiscal consolidation in the medium term.
A. Introduction
Japan is gearing up for a two-percentage point increase in its value-added tax (VAT) rate in October 2019. With the world's highest debt-to-GDP ratio (over 200 percent), raising the standard VAT rate to 10 percent is critical to achieving the government's objective of a primary surplus and moving toward debt sustainability.
view the IMF Working Paper-Japan: Selected Issues
Source: IMF
IMF-Australia: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2018 Article IV Consultation Mission
November 19, 2018--Completing the Rebalancing after the End of the Mining Investment Boom
Australia's recent strong growth is expected to continue in the near term, further reducing slack in the economy and leading the way to gradual upward pressure on wages and prices.
Despite recent strong growth and declining unemployment, it is not yet the time to withdraw macroeconomic policy support given remaining slack.
While Australia benefits from a robust regulatory framework, further bolstering of financial sector systemic risk oversight and financial supervision would be helpful.
The cooling of the housing market is welcome and can be weathered in a strong economy. Housing supply reforms will be critical to restoring housing affordability.
Australia is now on the final leg of its rebalancing and adjustment after the end of the commodity price and mining investment boom. Growth has picked up strongly to well above 3 percent in 2018, driven by business investment and private consumption, while the recent rebound in the terms of trade has been sustained. The strong economic momentum has resulted in further improvements in labor market conditions. Nonetheless, wage growth has remained weak, suggesting some remaining labor market slack.
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Source: IMF
IMF Working Papers-China's Monetary Policy Communication: Frameworks, Impact, and Recommendations
November 16, 2018--Summary:
Financial markets are eager for any signal of monetary policy from the People's Bank of China (PBC). The importance of effective monetary policy communication will only increase as China continues to liberalize its financial system and open its economy.
This paper discusses the country's unique institutional setup and empirically analyzes the impact on financial markets of the PBC's main communication channels, including a novel communication channel. The results suggest that there has been significant progress but that PBC communication is still evolving toward the level of other major economies. The paper recommends medium-term policy reforms and reforms that can be adopted quickly.
view the IMF Working Papers-China's Monetary Policy Communication: Frameworks, Impact, and Recommendations
Source: IMF
Singapore, China to collaborate on fintech, regulating derivative trades
November 15, 2018--TWO agreements penned between financial agencies will pave the way for China and Singapore to collaborate on fintech innovations and cross-border supervision of futures exchanges and intermediaries.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) concluded and exchanged the cooperation agreements with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) this week during Chinese Premier Li Keqiang's visit to Singapore.
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Source: www.businesstimes.com
iSTOXX FactSet Automation & Robotics Index licensed to BlackRock
November 15, 2018--STOXX Ltd., the operator of Deutsche Börse Group's index business and a global provider of innovative and tradable index concepts, has licensed the iSTOXX(R) FactSet Automation & Robotics Index to BlackRock.
The asset manager is launching an ETF today, which is listed in Tokyo. The index is comprised of companies from selected countries exposed to the themes Automation and Robotics.
"Automation is crucial for the Japanese economy contending with an aging population and a declining workforce. iShares is leveraging the iSTOXX FactSet Automation & Robotics Index to provide investors with a product that captures opportunities automation affords, where a fourth of the companies represented are Japanese," said Jason Miller, Head of iShares Japan at BlackRock.
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Source: Stoxx
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