Global ETF News Older than One Year
IMF-Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth
January 2023
January 31, 2023--Overview
Global inflation will fall in 2023 and 2024 amid subpar economic growth
Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 percent in 2024. The forecast for 2023 is 0.2 percentage point higher than predicted in the October 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO) but below the historical (2000-19) average of 3.8 percent. The rise in central bank rates to fight inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to weigh on economic activity.
The rapid spread of COVID-19 in China dampened growth in 2022, but the recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery. Global inflation is expected to fall from 8.8 percent in 2022 to 6.6 percent in 2023 and 4.3 percent in 2024, still above pre-pandemic (2017–19) levels of about 3.5 percent.
The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, but adverse risks have moderated since the October 2022 WEO. On the upside, a stronger boost from pent-up demand in numerous economies or a faster fall in inflation are plausible. On the downside, severe health outcomes in China could hold back the recovery, Russia's war in Ukraine could escalate, and tighter global financing costs could worsen debt distress. Financial markets could also suddenly reprice in response to adverse inflation news, while further geopolitical fragmentation could hamper economic progress.
Source: imf.org
New study finds insider traders using ETFs
January 31, 2023--Criminals with inside knowledge of M&A deals are now using ETFs to hide their insider trading from regulators, according to experts in illegal financial market behaviour.
The same financial market researchers who found that insider trading in stocks occurs before 20 per cent of takeover deals now say criminals are using exchange-traded funds to cover their illegal trading activity.
This method of avoiding the scrutiny of regulators is called "shadow trading" and it is widespread in financial markets, according to Vinay Patel and Talis Putnins from the University of Technology Sydney.
The paper, called Using ETFs to conceal insider trading, has just been published by Patel and Putnins , and Elza Eglite and Dans Staermans from the Stockholm School of Economics.
The central finding of the paper is that before a merger and acquisition announcement, some insiders trade ETFs, which contain the company involved in the takeover deal. This avoids investing directly in the company that is the subject of the M&A announcement.
Source: afr.com
IOSCO revises its 2011 Principles for the Regulation and Supervision of Commodity Derivatives Markets to ensure market integrity
January 31, 2123--The Board of the International Organization of Securities Commissions today has published a revised version of its 2011 Principles for the Regulation and Supervision of Commodity Derivatives Markets. The aim of the revision is to ensure that these Principles continue to provide a resilient framework for the regulation and oversight of the commodity derivatives markets.
While the Principles reflected the characteristics of commodity derivatives markets in 2011, these markets have continued to evolve over the past decade, spurred by various market developments and international events in the form of external disruptions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Source: IOSCO
Countries Should Act Now to Limit Rising Risks From Corporate Distress
January 31, 2023--Sharp rises in global interest rates could spark corporate distress and pose wider problems for many economies
Corporate debt rose by more than $12 trillion in advanced and emerging economies during the pandemic as companies borrowed to strengthen their balance sheets and survive the economic shock.
But steep rises in interest rates and more expensive debt service are stretching firms' finances, even as global debt declines as a share of gross domestic product.
This build-up of risk in the corporate sector and a doubling of funding costs for even the safest issuers could pose serious problems for many economies and their financial systems. A new machine-learning model developed by IMF staff predicts the probability of corporate distress spilling over into systemic economic risk, based on lessons from previous crises in 55 advanced and emerging economies since 1995. We identify around 50 indicators-from firms' debt ratios to credit expansion and overvalued assets-that might have power to predict future crises and then train the model.
Source: imf.org
Global Economy to Slow Further Amid Signs of Resilience and China Re-opening
January 30, 2023--The fight against inflation is starting to pay off, but central banks must continue their efforts
The global economy is poised to slow this year, before rebounding next year. Growth will remain weak by historical standards, as the fight against inflation and Russia's war in Ukraine weigh on activity.
Despite these headwinds, the outlook is less gloomy than in our October forecast, and could represent a turning point, with growth bottoming out and inflation declining.
Economic growth proved surprisingly resilient in the third quarter of last year, with strong labor markets, robust household consumption and business investment, and better-than-expected adaptation to the energy crisis in Europe. Inflation, too, showed improvement, with overall measures now decreasing in most countries-even if core inflation, which excludes more volatile energy and food prices, has yet to peak in many countries.
Source: imf.org
How Innovation is Revolutionizing Global Trade
January 30, 2023--Global trade, in many ways, makes the world go round. Think of any electronic good, clothing item, or perhaps a chocolate bar; all everyday items which are in consumers hands and homes because of global trade, providing countless jobs.
Mona Haddad, the Global Director for Trade, Investment and Competitiveness at the World Bank Group, explains: "Trade is an engine of growth that creates better jobs reduces poverty and increases economic opportunity."
Mona adds that trade liberalization increases GDP, and that it has, "lifted more than one billion out of poverty since 1990."
Source: worldbank.org
Crypto ETFs roar into life with eye-popping 2023 returns
January 30, 2023--Rebound has extended to tech funds such as ARKK, which has risen 25% this year
A swarm of cryptocurrency-focused equity exchange traded funds have enjoyed astonishing starts to 2023, chalking up sharp gains rarely seen by diversified stock funds.
The $3.9mn Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) has led the way with a 101 per cent return since the turn of the year, but a flock of rival funds have also chalked up gains of between 40 and 80 per cent.
Source: ft.com
IOSCO report provides new insights into global investment funds industry
January 27, 2023--The Board of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) today published the second edition of the Investment Funds Statistics Report (IFSR), which provides new insights into the global investment funds industry.
The report is based on a comprehensive collection of IOSCO members' supervisory data as of end-02021.
The IFSR is an annual exercise that aims to facilitate the regular collection and analysis of investment fund data, enabling regulators and stakeholders to share information and observe trends in the global investment funds sector. It builds on the foundations of IOSCO's previous biennial Hedge Funds Survey.
Source: IOSCO
IMF Working Paper-Gold as International Reserves: A Barbarous Relic No More?
January 27, 2023--Summary:
After moving slowly downward for the better part of four decades, central bank gold holdings have risen since the Global Financial Crisis. We identify 14 "active diversifiers," defined as countries that purchased gold and raised its share in total reserves by at least 5 percentage points over the last two decades.
In contrast to the diversification of foreign currency reserves, which has been undertaken by advanced and developing country central banks alike, active diversifiers into gold are exclusively emerging markets.
We document two sets of factors contributing to this trend. First, gold appeals to central bank reserve managers as a safe haven in periods of economic, financial and geopolitical volatility, when the return on alternative financial assets is low. Second, the imposition of financial sanctions by the United States, United Kingdom, European Union and Japan, the main reserve-issuing economies, is associated with an increase in the share of central bank reserves held in the form of gold. There is some evidence that multilateral sanctions imposed by these, and other countries have a larger impact than unilateral sanctions on the share of reserves held in gold, since the latter leave scope for shifting reserves into the currencies of other non-sanctioning countries.
Source: imf.org
ETFGI reports assets invested in the global ETFs industry extended lead over hedge fund industry to US$4.57 trillion at the end of Q3 2022
January 27, 2023-- ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm covering trends in the global ETFs and ETPs ecosystem, reported today that assets invested in the global ETFs industry extended its lead over the global hedge fund industry by US$4.57 trillion at the end of Q3 2022, based on data from ETFGI and HFR.
Highlights
Assets invested in global ETFs industry extended lead over assets in global hedge fund industry to $4.57 trillion at the end of Q3 2022.
The global hedge fund industry suffered net outflows of $26 billion during Q3 2022 while global ETFs industry gathered net inflows of $129.9 billion.
Assets invested in the global ETFs industry first surpassed those invested in the global hedge fund industry at the end of Q2 2015, as ETFGI had forecasted. Growth in assets in the ETFs industry has outpaced growth in the hedge fund industry since the financial crisis in 2008.
Source: etfgi.com
