Global ETF News Older than One Year
IMF Working Paper-How Costly Will Reining in Inflation Be? It Depends on How Rational We Are
February 3, 2023--Summary:
We document that past highly inflationary episodes are often characterized by a steeper inflationslack relationship. We show that model-generated data from a standard small Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model can replicate this empirical finding when estimated with different expectation formation processes.
When inflation becomes de-anchored and expectations drift, we can observe high inflation even with a mildly positive output gap in response to cost-push shocks. The results imply that we should not use an unconditioned (not controlling for expectations change) Phillips curve estimated in normal times to predict the cost of reining in inflation. Our optimal policy exercises prescribe early monetary policy tightening and then easing in the context of positive output gaps and inflation far above the central bank target.
Source: imf.org
IMF-In Defense of Globalization
February 2, 2023--History suggests the path to taming inflation is through more international trade-not less
Today's surge in inflation grows out of the interplay of supply chain disruptions with large fiscal deficits. The pandemic, followed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, upended supply chains and produced scarcities.
Rich industrial countries responded to the shortages, inequalities, and social stress with large fiscal packages. In the ensuing spiral, increased spending led to more demand, which led to more shortfalls. Another vicious spiral may follow. Rising food and fuel prices could spark discontent, protests, even revolutions and government breakdowns around the world.
Source: imf.org
Latest Global Findex Data Chart 10 Years of Progress in Financial Inclusion
February 2, 2023--STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Financial accounts give people a safe way to make payments, store and save money, and access loans. As a result, financial inclusion facilitates investments in education and job opportunities, and increases resiliency to shocks.
Data from the Global Findex-launched in 2011 as the world's first and only source of data collected from users of financial services on financial account ownership, usage, and financial resilience based on nationally representative surveys of adults-show a 50 percent increase over the past decade in the worldwide share of adults with an account. Key gaps still remain, however, based on gender, income, and education level.
The COVID-19 pandemic catalyzed a rise in financial digitalization, demonstrated by millions of adults using digital payments in lieu of cash-based payments for the first time.
At a recent Policy Research Talk, World Bank Lead Economist Leora Klapper presented key findings from the Global Findex 2021-a nationally representative survey of adults that has taken place roughly every three years since 2011 and quantifies financial account ownership and usage in economies around the world. Initially delayed by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Global Findex 2021 captured data from more than 128,000 adults in 123 countries-bringing the global total of survey participants to more than half a million adults since 2011.
Source: worldbank.org
From marijuana to the metaverse: specialised ETFs underperform
February 2, 2022--New research shows investors should be wary of funds focused on specific themes or one industry
From the legalisation of marijuana to the rise of working from home, if there is a trend or theme in markets, there will be an exchange traded fund for it.
As the cost of issuance of new ETFs is low and the competition between fund issuers intense, financial innovation has flourished. Thousands of new ETFs have been launched over the past three decades. The range of recent specialised ETFs seemingly stretches as far as the imagination of investors.
Source: FT.com
Using ETFs to Conceal Insider Trading
February 1, 2023--Abstract
We show that exchange traded funds (ETFs) are used in a new form of insider trading known as "shadow trading." Our evidence suggests that some traders in possession of material non-public information about upcoming M&A announcements trade in ETFs that contain the target stock, rather than trading the underlying company shares, thereby concealing their insider trading.
Using bootstrap techniques to identify abnormal trading in treatment and control samples, we find significant levels of shadow trading in 3-6% of same-industry ETFs prior to M&A announcements, equating to at least $212 million of such trading per annum. Our findings suggest insider trading is more pervasive than just the "direct" forms that have been the focus of research and enforcement to date.
Source: ssrn.com
WTO-Exports of intermediate goods post sustained growth in second quarter of 2022
February 1, 2023--World exports of intermediate goods (IGs) grew 4% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2022 to US$ 2.5 trillion, driven by the increase in shipments of intermediate food products. The overall growth, while slower than the increase recorded in the same period a year ago, continues to indicate stable activity in global supply chains.
The share of IGs in total trade (excluding fuels) remained at 50% in the second quarter of 2022, a ratio that has remained constant over the last decade. IGs refer to inputs used to produce a final product and are an indicator of the activity in global supply chains. In comparison, world IG exports grew by 47% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2021.
Source: WTO (World Trade Organization)
IMF-Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth
January 2023
January 31, 2023--Overview
Global inflation will fall in 2023 and 2024 amid subpar economic growth
Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 percent in 2024. The forecast for 2023 is 0.2 percentage point higher than predicted in the October 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO) but below the historical (2000-19) average of 3.8 percent. The rise in central bank rates to fight inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to weigh on economic activity.
The rapid spread of COVID-19 in China dampened growth in 2022, but the recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery. Global inflation is expected to fall from 8.8 percent in 2022 to 6.6 percent in 2023 and 4.3 percent in 2024, still above pre-pandemic (2017–19) levels of about 3.5 percent.
The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, but adverse risks have moderated since the October 2022 WEO. On the upside, a stronger boost from pent-up demand in numerous economies or a faster fall in inflation are plausible. On the downside, severe health outcomes in China could hold back the recovery, Russia's war in Ukraine could escalate, and tighter global financing costs could worsen debt distress. Financial markets could also suddenly reprice in response to adverse inflation news, while further geopolitical fragmentation could hamper economic progress.
Source: imf.org
New study finds insider traders using ETFs
January 31, 2023--Criminals with inside knowledge of M&A deals are now using ETFs to hide their insider trading from regulators, according to experts in illegal financial market behaviour.
The same financial market researchers who found that insider trading in stocks occurs before 20 per cent of takeover deals now say criminals are using exchange-traded funds to cover their illegal trading activity.
This method of avoiding the scrutiny of regulators is called "shadow trading" and it is widespread in financial markets, according to Vinay Patel and Talis Putnins from the University of Technology Sydney.
The paper, called Using ETFs to conceal insider trading, has just been published by Patel and Putnins , and Elza Eglite and Dans Staermans from the Stockholm School of Economics.
The central finding of the paper is that before a merger and acquisition announcement, some insiders trade ETFs, which contain the company involved in the takeover deal. This avoids investing directly in the company that is the subject of the M&A announcement.
Source: afr.com
IOSCO revises its 2011 Principles for the Regulation and Supervision of Commodity Derivatives Markets to ensure market integrity
January 31, 2123--The Board of the International Organization of Securities Commissions today has published a revised version of its 2011 Principles for the Regulation and Supervision of Commodity Derivatives Markets. The aim of the revision is to ensure that these Principles continue to provide a resilient framework for the regulation and oversight of the commodity derivatives markets.
While the Principles reflected the characteristics of commodity derivatives markets in 2011, these markets have continued to evolve over the past decade, spurred by various market developments and international events in the form of external disruptions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Source: IOSCO
Countries Should Act Now to Limit Rising Risks From Corporate Distress
January 31, 2023--Sharp rises in global interest rates could spark corporate distress and pose wider problems for many economies
Corporate debt rose by more than $12 trillion in advanced and emerging economies during the pandemic as companies borrowed to strengthen their balance sheets and survive the economic shock.
But steep rises in interest rates and more expensive debt service are stretching firms' finances, even as global debt declines as a share of gross domestic product.
This build-up of risk in the corporate sector and a doubling of funding costs for even the safest issuers could pose serious problems for many economies and their financial systems. A new machine-learning model developed by IMF staff predicts the probability of corporate distress spilling over into systemic economic risk, based on lessons from previous crises in 55 advanced and emerging economies since 1995. We identify around 50 indicators-from firms' debt ratios to credit expansion and overvalued assets-that might have power to predict future crises and then train the model.
Source: imf.org
