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Stagflation Risk Rises Amid Sharp Slowdown in Growth
June 7, 2022--War in Ukraine leading to higher inflation, tighter financial conditions
Compounding the damage from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has magnified the slowdown in the global economy, which is entering what could become a protracted period of feeble growth and elevated inflation, according to the World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects report.
This raises the risk of stagflation, with potentially harmful consequences for middle-and low-income economies alike.
Global growth is expected to slump from 5.7 percent in 2021 to 2.9 percent in 2022-significantly lower than 4.1 percent that was anticipated in January. It is expected to hover around that pace over 2023-24, as the war in Ukraine disrupts activity, investment, and trade in the near term, pent-up demand fades, and fiscal and monetary policy accommodation is withdrawn.
China's transition bonds and other environment stories you need to read this week
June 7, 2022--This weekly round-up brings you some of the key environment stories from the past seven days.
Top stories: China has unveiled low-carbon transition bonds; fewer than half of Americans support nuclear power; new committee to monitor business climate action.
China is rolling out so-called low-carbon transition bonds to help companies become greener, the country's interbank bond market regulator said on 6 June, as Beijing strives toward carbon neutrality.
Under the pilot scheme, companies in eight sectors including electric power, steelmaking, petrochemicals and civil aviation will issue bonds to fund decarbonization efforts, the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors said.
It comes after China's state planning agency unveiled a new "five-year plan" for the renewable sector on 1 June, with the aim of ensuring that its grids source about 33% of power from renewable sources by 2025, up from 28.8% in 2020.
Meanwhile, record green energy output reduced Indian dependence on coal in May, despite 23.5% growth in power demand, contributing to a rise in utilities' coal inventories, a Reuters analysis of government data showed.
Value of US and European IPOs tumbles 90% this year
June 5, 2022--First-quarter drought extends into second quarter as Ukraine war and volatility deter companies from listing
The value of initial public offerings in the US and Europe has fallen 90 per cent this year as the Ukraine war and rising inflation and interest rates have forced businesses to shelve plans to go public.
Just 157 companies raised a total of $17.9bn in the first five months of 2022, compared with 628 that raised $192bn in the same period last year, according to data from Dealogic.
Global plastic waste set to almost triple by 2060, says OECD
June 3, 2022--The amount of plastic waste produced globally is on track to almost triple by 2060, with around half ending up in landfill and less than a fifth recycled, according to a new OECD report.
Global Plastics Outlook: Policy Scenarios to 2060 says that without radical action to curb demand, increase product lifespans and improve waste management and recyclability, plastic pollution will rise in tandem with an almost threefold increase in plastics use driven by rising populations and incomes.
The report (available as a preliminary version ahead of its full publication later this year) projects global plastics consumption rising from 460 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 to 1,231 Mt in 2060 in the absence of bold new policies, a faster rise than most raw materials. Growth will be fastest in developing and emerging countries in Africa and Asia, although OECD countries will still produce much more plastic waste per person (238 kg per year on average) in 2060 than non-OECD countries (77 kg).
IMF Working Paper-Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space
June 3, 2022--Summary:
This paper presents a novel framework to estimate the elasticity between nighttime lights and quarterly economic activity. The relationship is identified by accounting for varying degrees of measurement errors in nighttime light data across countries. The estimated elasticity is 1.55 for emerging markets and developing economies, ranging from 1.36 to 1.81 across country groups and robust to different model specifications.
The paper uses a light-adjusted measure of quarterly economic activity to show that higher levels of development, statistical capacity, and voice and accountability are associated with more precise national accounts data. The elasticity allows quantification of subnational economic impacts. During the COVID-19 pandemic, regions with higher levels of development and population density experienced larger declines in economic activity.
Consumer Prices, OECD-Updated: 2 June 2022 Inflation in the OECD rises to 9.2% in April 2022 as food and services prices accelerate
June 2, 2022--June 2, 2022-- Consumer prices (CPI) in the OECD rose by 9.2% year-on-year in April 2022, compared with 8.8% in March 2022. Excluding food and energy, year-on-year inflation increased to 6.3% in April 2022, compared with 5.9% in March 2022.
Food price inflation in the OECD continued to strongly pick up, reaching 11.5% in April 2022 compared with 10.0% in March. Services prices accelerated in most OECD countries, rising by 4.4% year-on-year in April 2022 on average across 33 OECD countries, compared with 3.9% in March.
These increases in food and services prices were partly offset by a temporary deceleration in energy prices to 32.5% year-on-year in April 2022, some 1.2 percentage points lower than in March.
Price developments varied somewhat across countries. Nine OECD countries recorded double-digit inflation rates, with the highest rates experienced in Turkey and Estonia. By contrast, inflation fell in five OECD countries, including Italy, Spain and the United States.
BetaShares-Market Trends: June 2022 Global equities-stabilisation as bond yields level out
June 1, 2022---Global equities continued to weaken in May, albeit with a smaller drop than evident in April - helped by tentative signs that the lift in global inflation and bonds yields may be near a peak.
The MSCI All Country return index declined by 0.2% in local currency terms after a decline of 6.5% in April.
Reflecting a firmer Australian dollar, the decline in unhedged global equities was a little greater at 1.4%, following a decline of 2.5% in April.
Forward earnings continued to grow, rising by 0.9% in the month with current market expectations consistent with further growth of 4.6% by end-22 and 7.5% over 2023. Accordingly, it was the PE ratio that again drove equity prices lower, falling from 15.3 to 15.1- to be now broadly back in the range of the pre-COVID period since 2013.
Investing in the green economy 2022 Tracking growth and performance in green equities
June 1, 2022--Tracking growth and performance in green equities
Executive summary
Addressing climate change and environmental issues requires significant investment; estimates suggest that between USD 125 to USD 275 trillion is needed to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.1 As governments and investors seek new ways to deploy ever greater capital towards this and other global environmental challenges, there is a need to create a common language on sustainable activities through which to define, measure and invest in the green economy.
One of the main challenges to developing and implementing such a common language is the lack of in-depth data on the green economy and limited corporate reporting on green products and services.
Dollar Dominance and the Rise of Nontraditional Reserve Currencies
June 1, 2022--The US dollar has long played an outsized role in global markets. It continues to do so even as the American economy has been producing a shrinking share of global output over the last two decades.
But although the currency's presence in global trade, international debt, and non-bank borrowing still far outstrips the US share of trade, bond issuance, and international borrowing and lending, central banks aren't holding the greenback in their reserves to the extent that they once did.
Digital Asset Management Review-May 2022
May 31, 2022--Report Summary
Bitcoin and Ethereum fell by 27.3% and 38.1% respectively in May (data up to 26th), a steep decline following a turbulent month for the two largest cryptocurrencies as the collapse of LUNA and TerraUSD sent shockwaves through the sector.
May Highlights
Since April 2022, total AUM across all digital asset investment products has fallen 28.6% to $34.2bn (as of the 26th of May).
Weekly net inflows averaged $66.5mn compared to average weekly outflows of -$49.6mn in April. Weekly inflows for Bitcoin-based products averaged $63.4mn, while Ethereum experienced significant average outflows of $-13.2mn per week.
