IMF Staff Climate Note-Getting on Track to Net Zero: Accelerating a Global Just Transition in This Decade
November 4, 2022--Summary:
To contain global warming to between 2°C and 1.5°C, global greenhouse gas emissions must be cut 25 to 50 percent below 2019 levels by 2030. Even if fully achieved, current country pledges would cut global emissions by just 11 percent. This Note presents illustrative options for closing this ambition gap equitably and discusses their economic impacts across countries.
Options exist to accelerate a global just transition in this decade, involving greater emission reductions by high-income countries and climate finance, but further delays in climate action would put 1.5°C beyond reach. Global abatement costs remain low under 2°C-consistent scenarios, with burdens rising with income levels. With efficient policies of carbon pricing with productive revenue use, welfare costs become negative when including domestic environmental co-benefits, before even counting climate benefits. GDP effects from global decarbonization remain uncertain, but modeling suggests they exceed abatement costs especially for carbon-ntensive and fossil-fuel-exporting countries. Ratcheting up climate finance can help make global decarbonization efforts more progressive.
Source: IMF.org
Countries Could Cut Emissions by 70% by 2050 and Boost Resilience with Annual Investments of 1.4% of GDP
November 3, 2022--Low-and middle-income countries can transition to low-carbon, resilient growth pathways if key conditions are met with international support
Investing an average of 1.4% of GDP annually could reduce emissions in developing countries by as much as 70% by 2050 and boost resilience,according to a new report from the World Bank Group.
The analysis,Climate and Development: An Agenda for Action,compiles and harmonizes results from the Bank Group's Country Climate and Development Reports,covering over 20 countries that account for 34% of the world's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It shows that investment needs are markedly higher in lower-income countries which are more vulnerable to climate risk,often exceeding 5% of GDP. P>view more
Source: worldbank.org
Inflation's paradigm shift, explained
November 3, 2022--Optimists initially described the global inflationary surge as transitory-the reality of the situation is anything but.
Increasingly, experts suggest that higher prices may prove more intransigent and volatile than expected.
Efforts to rein in the price spike are further complicated since many inflationary factors transcend the mandate of any one monetary authority.
The global economy is under attack from an insidious force: inflation. How entrenched in the psyches of consumers, corporates and investors future inflation expectations become will foretell the durability of the foe, and its corrosive impact on the global economy, for (potentially) years to come.
Economic forecasts remain sanguine about the future level of inflation: testament to the confidence maintained in central bankers’ abilities to squash it. Yet convictions can shift rapidly, shredding widely held conventions.
Source: weforum.org
OECD-Pricing Greenhouse Gas Emissions
November 3, 2022--Turning Climate Targets into Climate Action
Accelerating the transition to net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is urgently required to contain the risks of climate change. As countries seek to reduce GHG emissions, they can employ or reform a wide range of policy instruments. This report tracks how explicit carbon prices, energy taxes and subsidies have evolved between 2018 and 2021.
This is an important subset of the policy instruments available to governments. All instruments considered in this report either directly change the cost of emitting GHG or change electricity prices.
Reforming these instruments could help to meet climate targets, lead to cleaner air and water, and improve public finances. The report covers 71 countries, which together account for approximately 80% of global GHG emissions and energy use. Explicit carbon prices, as well as energy taxes and subsidies are detailed by country, sector, product and instrument. The use of a common methodology ensures comparability across countries. Summary indicators facilitate cross-country comparisons and allow policy makers and the public to keep track of progress made and identify opportunities for reform.
Source: OECD.org
Tradeweb Reports Total October 2022 Trading Volume of $21.3 Trillion and Average Daily Volume of $1.05 Trillion
November 3, 2022--Tradeweb Markets Inc. (Nasdaq: TW), a leading, global operator of electronic marketplaces for rates, credit, equities and money markets, today reported total trading volume for October 2022 of $21.3 trillion (tn). Average daily volume (ADV) for the month was $1.05tn, a decrease of 16.5 percent (%) year-over-year (YoY).
October 2022 Highlights
Rates
U.S. government bond ADV was down 14.0% YoY to $128.1 billion (bn), and European government bond ADV was up 4.2% YoY (up 23.8% YoY on a EUR-denominated basis) to $37.8bn...
U.S. ETF ADV was up 55.4% YoY to $7.7bn and European ETF ADV was down 6.8% YoY (up 10.7% YoY on a EUR-denominated basis) to $2.1bn.
An increase of 43.2% YoY in global institutional client activity was driven by record U.S. trading activity and reflects further adoption of Tradeweb's request-for-quote (RFQ) protocol.
Source: tradeweb.com
Methane Emissions Must Fall for World to Hit Temperature Targets
November 2, 2022--Fees are a promising and practical solution, especially those that build off existing business taxes common for extractive industries and agriculture
Countries must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases substantially to keep global temperature targets in reach and limit risks of destabilizing the world's climate.
Most attention has focused on carbon dioxide produced by burning fossil fuels, but it is also critical to cut methane emissions-not least because methane has a more powerful near-term warming effect than CO2 and cutting methane emissions would have a more immediate impact on the climate.
As the Chart of the Week shows, global greenhouse gases must be cut by 25 percent to 50 percent from 2019 levels by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5-2 degrees Celsius-the central goal of the Paris Agreement. Reducing methane emissions could lower the stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and cut the very scary risks of "tipping points"-when climate change becomes self-perpetuating. This is because methane stays in the atmosphere for only 12 years on average compared with up to a thousand years for CO2.
Source: imf.org
Cold hard (digital) cash: The economics of central bank digital currency
October 1, 2022--Central banks around the world are exploring the case for central bank digital currency. This column outlines the economic forces that shape the rise of digital money and motivate the current debate, looks at the implications for monetary policy and financial stability as well as the policy issues and challenges, and highlights several areas where our understanding of digital money could be improved by further research.
Central banks around the world are exploring the case for central bank digital currency (CBDC) - essentially a digital version of cash (Nielpelt 2021). In a new paper (Ahnert et al. 2022a), we provide an overview of the economics of CBDC. First, we outline the economic forces that shape the rise of digital money and motivate the current debate. We then look at the implications for monetary policy and financial stability before discussing policy issues and challenges. Finally, we highlight several areas where our understanding of digital money could be improved by further research.
Source: cepr.org
IMF Working Paper-Digitalization and Resilience
October 28, 2022--Summary:
This paper investigates the role of digitialization in improving economic resilience. Using balance sheet data from 24,000 firms in 75 countries, and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that firms in industries that are more digitalized experience lower revenue losses following recessions.
Early data since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic suggest an even larger effect during the resulting recessions. These results are robust across a wide range of digitalization measures-such as ICT input and employment shares, robot usage, online sales, intangible assets and digital skills listed on online profiles-and several alternative specifications.
Source: imf.org
Five of the worst ETF first-year performances are crypto-related
October 28, 2022--The cryptocurrency and blockchain funds launched in 2021 just before prices tumbled
Crypto exchange traded funds account for five of the worst seven debuts in the history of the ETF industry.
The funds were launched in the heady days of 2021 - just in time for them for them to face the full force of 2022's market fury, Morningstar Direct data show.
The findings, from data provided exclusively for the Financial Times, exclude the performance of leveraged and inverse funds, which are not designed to be held over the long term.
Source: ft.com
IMF Working Paper-How Persistent are Climate-Related Price Shocks? Implications for Monetary Policy
October 28, 2022--Summary:
Climate change is likely to lead to more frequent and more severe supply and demand shocks that will present a challenge to monetary policy formulation. The main objective of the paper is to investigate how climate shocks affect consumer prices in a broad range of countries over a long period using local projection methods. It finds that the impact of climate shocks on inflation depends on the type and intensity of shocks, country income level, and monetary policy regime.
Specifically, droughts tend to have the highest overall positive impact on inflation, reflecting rising food prices. Interestingly, floods tend to have a dampening impact on inflation, pointing to the predominance of demand shocks in this case. Over the long run, the dominant monetary policy paradigm of flexible inflation targeting faced with supply-induced climate shocks may become increasingly ineffective, especially in LIDCs. More research is needed to find viable alternative monetary policy frameworks.
Source: IMF.org