IEA-World Energy Outlook 2022
October 26, 2022--Executive summary
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sparked a global energy crisis
The world is in the midst of its first global energy crisis- a shock of unprecedented breadth and complexity. Pressures in markets predated Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but Russia's actions have turned a rapid economic recovery from the pandemic-which strained all manner of global supply chains, including energy- into full-blown energy turmoil.
Russia has been by far the world's largest exporter of fossil fuels, but its curtailments of natural gas supply to Europe and European sanctions on imports of oil and coal from Russia are severing one of the main arteries of global energy trade. All fuels are affected, but gas markets are the epicentre as Russia seeks leverage by exposing consumers to higher energy bills and supply shortages.
Prices for spot purchases of natural gas have reached levels never seen before, regularly exceeding the equivalent of USD 250 for a barrel of oil
Source: iea.org (International Energy Agency)
Climate Plans Remain Insufficient: More Ambitious Action Needed Now
October 26, 2022--A new report from UN Climate Change shows countries are bending the curve of global greenhouse gas emissions downward but underlines that these efforts remain insufficient to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
According to the report, the combined climate pledges of 193 Parties under the Paris Agreement could put the world on track for around 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century.
Today's report also shows current commitments will increase emissions by 10.6% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels. This is an improvement over last year's assessment, which found countries were on a path to increase emissions by 13.7% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels.
Source: unfccc.int
Currency Depreciations,Risk Intensifying Food, Energy Crisis in Developing Economies
October 26, 2022-October 26, 2022--Elevated commodity prices could prolong inflationary pressures
The shrinking value of the currencies of most developing economies is driving up food and fuel prices in ways that could deepen the food and energy crises that many of them already face, according to the World Bank's latest Commodity Markets Outlook report.
In U.S. dollar terms, the prices of most commodities have declined from their recent peaks amid concerns of an impending global recession, the report documents. From the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 through the end of last month, the price of Brent crude oil in U.S. dollars fell nearly 6 percent. Yet, because of currency depreciations, almost 60 percent of oil-importing emerging-market and developing economies saw an increase in domestic-currency oil prices during this period. Nearly 90 percent of these economies also saw a larger increase in wheat prices in local-currency terms compared to the rise in U.S. dollars.
Source: worldbank.org
The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels
October 25, 2022--Executive summary
The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown is published as the world confronts profound and concurrent systemic shocks. Countries and health systems continue to contend with the health, social, and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, while Russia's invasion of Ukraine and a persistent fossil fuel overdependence has pushed the world into global energy and cost-of-living crises.
As these crises unfold, climate change escalates unabated. Its worsening impacts are increasingly affecting the foundations of human health and wellbeing, exacerbating the vulnerability of the world's populations to concurrent health threats.
Source: thelancet.com
OECD-Shedding light on the drivers of services tradability over two decades
October 25, 2022--Services have become significantly more tradable in the first two decades of the 21st century. This paper documents that trade costs for financial services, communication services and business services fell by between 30% and 60% between 2000 and 2019. Information and communication technology and growth of air traffic have acted as key drivers of this development.
While there is some variation across sectors, the analysis suggests that these two determinants jointly account for a quarter to half of the aggregate decline in trade costs for services during this 20-year period. Furthermore, services provisions in regional trade agreements (RTAs) can explain between 3% and 14% of the reduction in trade costs for communications services and financial and insurance services. These findings demonstrate the importance of whole-of-government strategies to promote services trade competitiveness, inter alia market access, regulatory reform, as well as investment in physical and digital infrastructure and adoption of new technologies.
Source: OECD
ETFGI reports actively managed ETFs listed globally gathered US$8.80 billion in net inflows in September 2022
October 25, 2022--ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm covering trends in the global ETF/ETP ecosystem, reported today that actively managed ETFs listed globally gathered net inflows of US$8.80 billion during September, bringing year-to-date net inflows to US$88.82 billion.
Assets invested in actively managed ETFs decreased by 5.5%, from US$465 billion at the end of August 2022 to US$440 billion, according to ETFGI's September 2022 Active ETF and ETP industry landscape insights report, an annual paid-for research subscription service. (All dollar values in USD unless otherwise noted.)
Highlights
Net inflows of $8.80 Bn during September 2022.
Year-to-date net inflows of $88.82 Bn in 2022 are the second highest on record, after year-to-date net inflows in 2021 of $110.65 Bn.
30th month of consecutive net inflows.
Assets of $440 Bn invested in actively managed ETFs and ETPs industry at the end of September 2022.
Source: ETFGI
ETFGI reports global ETFs industry gathered net inflows of US$33.45 billion during September 2022
October 19, 2022--ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm covering trends in the global ETFs/ETPs ecosystem, reported today that the global ETFs industry gathered net inflows of US$33.45 billion during September, bringing year-to-date net inflows to US$593.20 billion.
During September 2022, assets invested in the global ETFs industry decreased by 8.3%, from US$9.11 trillion at the end of August to US$8.35 trillion, according to ETFGI's September 2022 global ETFs and ETPs industry landscape insights report, the monthly report which is part of an annual paid-for research subscription service. (All dollar values in USD unless otherwise noted.)
Highlights
Global ETFs industry gathered $33.45 Bn of net inflows during September.
YTD net inflows of $593.20 Bn are 2nd highest on record, after 2021 YTD net inflows of $923.84 Bn.
40th month of consecutive net inflows.
Assets of $8.35 Tn invested in global ETFs industry at the end of September 2022.
Assets decreased 18.6% YTD in 2022, going from $10.27 Tn at end of 2021 to $8.35 Tn.
Source: ETFGI
IMF-Latest Global Growth Forecasts Show Challenges Facing Economies
October 19, 2022--The global deceleration will be broad-based, with many economies poised to contract, and the outlook remains uncertain
The IMF's World Economic Outlook released last week forecasts that global economic growth will slow from 3.2 percent this year to 2.7 percent next year. The 2022 projection was unchanged from the last estimate, in July, but next year's was cut by 0.2 percentage point.
The global deceleration will be broad-based, and the 2023 projection is less than half of last year's 6 percent expansion. Countries accounting for about a third of the global economy are estimated to have a two-quarter contraction in real gross domestic product this year or next.
The outlook is also fraught with uncertainty. We estimate there is a one-in-four probability global growth will fall below 2 percent next year and that there is a likelihood of 10 percent to 15 percent that it will drop below 1 percent.
Source: imf.org
Sanctioning a cryptocurrency protocol: What does that mean for Web3?
October 17, 2022--The US OFAC has recently sanctioned a cryptocurrency "mixer" for alleged use in money-laundering.
It is the first time the OFAC has sanctioned a software protocol, rather than an individual or legal entity.
The decision has implications for the development of Web3.
In August 2022, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the United States Treasury Department sanctioned a cryptocurrency "mixer"-programmes used to increase the anonymity of crypto transactions-for its alleged use in money-laundering. It also blacklisted a number of Ethereum addresses associated with the protocol. The sanctioning and the corresponding response by affected actors stirred up intense debate in cryptocurrency circles and beyond about how permissionless protocols should be regulated.
What are the OFAC sanctions?
The OFAC administers trade and economic sanctions on countries and persons (both natural and legal) involved in activities that threaten the security or financial stability of the US- such as terrorism, drug trafficking and money-laundering. < href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/10/cryptocurrency-regulation-sanctions-web3/" TARGET="_blank">view more
Source: weforum.org
IMF-How Countries Should Respond to the Strong Dollar
October 14, 2022--Policy responses to currency depreciation pressures should focus on the drivers of the exchange-rate moves and signs of market disruptions
The dollar is at its highest level since 2000, having appreciated 22 percent against the yen, 13 percent against the Euro and 6 percent against emerging market currencies since the start of this year.
Such a sharp strengthening of the dollar in a matter of months has sizable macroeconomic implications for almost all countries, given the dominance of the dollar in international trade and finance.
While the US share in world merchandise exports has declined from 12 percent to 8 percent since 2000, the dollar's share in world exports has held around 40 percent. For many countries fighting to bring down inflation, the weakening of their currencies relative to the dollar has made the fight harder. On average, the estimated pass-through of a 10 percent dollar appreciation into inflation is 1 percent. Such pressures are especially acute in emerging markets, reflecting their higher import dependency and greater share of dollar-invoiced imports compared with advanced economies.
Source: IMF.org