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IMF-Hall of Mirrors: How Consumers Think about Inflation
July 19, 2022--July 19, 2022--A deeper understanding of how consumers think about the economy would help policymakers control inflation
Their answers may help them make important personal financial decisions. Should they go ahead and buy that new refrigerator, rather than wait until later and risk seeing the price go up? Should they ask their boss for a raise to make up for the loss of purchasing power?
The answers won't affect just individual households but the economy as a whole. The reason: central bankers and academic economists view inflation partly as a self-fulfilling prophecy. If consumers believe prices will rise at a faster pace, they may behave in ways-buying a refrigerator or asking for a raise-that will fuel more inflation.
OECD Handbook on Measuring the Space Economy, 2nd Edition
July 12, 2022--Executive summary
Space activities are growing globally, and the services derived from them are increasingly important to society. This second edition of the Handbook on Measuring the Space Economy responds to the needs of policymakers from multiple economic sectors that are reflecting on such changes in their measurement strategies.
It takes account of the evolving landscape of space activities, technologies and user needs surrounding two core observations:
World population to reach 8 billion this year, as growth rate slows
July 11, 2022--15 November 2022 is predicted to be the day that the global population reaches eight billion. The projection is revealed in the UN's World Population Prospects 2022 report, which also shows that India is on course to surpass China as the world's most populous country in 2023.
The latest UN projections suggest that the world's population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050, before reaching a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s.
The population is expected to remain at that level until 2100.
Slowest growth rate since 1950s
However, the annual World Population Prospect report, released on Monday to coincide with World Population Day, also notes that the global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having fallen to less that one per cent in 2020.
Fertility, the report declares, has fallen markedly in recent decades for many countries: today, two-thirds of the global population lives in a country or area where lifetime fertility is below 2.1 births per woman, roughly the level required for zero growth in the long run, for a population with low mortality.
BIS-Big tech interdependencies-a key policy blind spot
July 5, 2022--The increasingly prominent role of large technology firms (big techs) in the financial sector has raised questions about their inner workings and regulation.
Big tech business models are characterised by strong internal and external interdependencies.
Intragroup dependencies arise from the common use by big tech entities of a general payment infrastructure, technological platforms and applications; and from sharing data and insights derived from those data across the services they provide.
External interconnections arise from partnerships of big tech entities with financial institutions to provide financial services. The financial services industry and regional big techs have come to heavily rely on technological services provided by global big techs, such as data analytics and cloud computing.
Explained: How engineered crops can fight climate change
July 4, 2022--Global food systems feed a growing world population, but are a major contributor to climate change.
Scientists are developing a suite of genetically engineered crops that will more efficiently remove and store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Creation and use of engineered crops must be done in collaboration with stewards of ecosystems in order to meet the needs of the environment, local populations, and the wider global community.
Food systems account for over one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions. Any successful strategy for reaching the ambitious - and critical -emissions targets outlined in the Paris Agreement must involve changes to how we grow, process and distribute food.
The pursuit of net-zero can be divided into two parts. First, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to as close to zero as possible and second, the absorption of any remaining emissions from the atmosphere.
The Effects of Economic Shocks on Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations
July 1, 2022--Summary:
In this paper, we examine how economic shocks affect the distribution of household inflation expectations. We show that the dynamics of households' expected inflation distributions are driven by three distinctive functional shocks, which influence the expected inflation distribution through disagreement, level shift and ambiguity.
Linking these functional shocks to economic shocks, we find that contractionary monetary shocks increase the average level of inflation expectation with anchoring effects, with a reduction in disagreement and an increase in the share of households expecting future inflation to be between 2 to 4 percent. Such anchoring effects are not observed when the high inflation periods prior to the Volcker disinflation are included. Expansionary government spending shocks have inflationary effects on both short and medium-run inflation expectations, while an increase in personal income tax shocks is inflationary for mediumrun. A surprise increase in gasoline prices increases the level of inflation expectations, but lowers the share of households with 2 percent inflation expectations.
Central banks look to China's renminbi to diversify foreign currency reserves
June 30, 2022--Dollar's dominance could gradually decline as a result of geopolitical flare-ups, UBS survey shows
Central banks are looking towards the renminbi to diversify their foreign currency holdings in a sign that geopolitical flare-ups could chip away at the dollar's dominance.
Greenhouse Emissions Rise to Record, Erasing Drop During Pandemic
June 30, 202--Emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases plunged 4.6 percent in 2020, as lockdowns in the first half of the year restricted global mobility and hampered economic activity. Many hoped that this would mark the beginning of a more permanent shift downwards in emissions.
The latest data, however, dashed those hopes. As the Chart of the Week shows, annual global greenhouse gas emissions rebounded 6.4 percent last year to a new record, eclipsing the pre-pandemic peak as global economic activity resumed.
The inflation story differs across major economies
June 30, 2022--The return of inflation has touched off an unusual public debate among policymakers around the world, but there are important differences in inflation across economies that call for radically different policy responses. Inflation may be caused by a reduction in an economy's ability to supply goods and services, an increase in the demand for goods and services, or both. Reductions in supply appear to be widespread, but increases in demand are limited mainly to the United States and the United Kingdom.
Policies to increase supply are often hard to implement, but releasing oil and grain from official reserves can be a useful temporary measure. Tighter monetary and fiscal policies are needed to restrain demand, notably in the United States and the United Kingdom. So far, Japan has been the exception to the global pattern, with declines in demand and inflation. Continued easy monetary and fiscal policies are needed there.
World Economic Forum-What next for travel and tourism? Here's what the experts say
June 30, 2022-- In 2020 alone, the travel and tourism sector lost $4.5 trillion and 62 million jobs globally.
But as the world recovers from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, travel and tourism can bounce back as an inclusive, sustainable, and resilient sector.
Two experts highlight some of the key transformations in the sector going forward during the World Economic Forum's Our World in Transformation series.
The Travel & Tourism sector was one of the hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving not only companies but also tourism-driven economies severely affected by shutdowns, travel restrictions and the disappearance of international travel.
In 2020 alone, the sector lost $4.5 trillion and 62 million jobs, impacting the living standards and well-being of communities across the globe. Moreover, the halt in international travel gave both leisure and business travellers the chance to consider the impact of their choices on the climate and environment.
