The Bank for International Settlements warned on Sunday that rising government debt levels amid a number of major elections this year could roil global financial markets
June 30, 2024--Dubbed the central bankers' central bank, the BIS said the world economy was on course for the "smooth landing" that many economists doubted when interest rates shot up, but said policymakers, especially politicians, needed to be careful.
BIS Annual Economic Report 2024
June 30, 2024--Introduction
So far, so good. The world economy appears to be finally leaving behind the legacy of the Covid-19 pandemic and the commodity price shock of the war in Ukraine. The worst fears did not materialise. On balance, globally, inflation is continuing to decline towards targets, economic activity and the financial system have proved remarkably resilient, and both professional forecasters and financial market participants see a smooth landing ahead.
G20 GDP growth picks up a little in the first quarter of 2024
June 12, 2024--Gross domestic product (GDP) in the G20 area grew by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2024 according to provisional estimates, slightly up from 0.7% in the previous quarter.
The economic performance of the G20 area was mainly driven by China and India in Q1 2024.[1] Both countries, along with Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Korea and Indonesia recorded higher GDP growth than the G20 as a whole.
Bassanese Bites-Breather
May 26, 2024--Global markets-week in review
After four consecutive weekly gains, global equities took a breather last week with the S&P 500 inching ahead only 0.03%. Firm US service sector data and "high for longer" Fed rhetoric saw traders take profits in both the bond and equity markets after recent gains.
ETFs shift from 'core' to 'satellite' in portfolios
May 23, 2024-- BBH survey indicates the funds are increasingly vehicles of choice for active strategies and tactical short-term use
Amundi ETF Market Strategy-Weekly Pulse
May 17, 2024--Risk assets extended gains and hovered near record highs. A further deceleration in inflation revived hopes that both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) are heading closer to a pivot in monetary policy.
Treasuries rallied across the board and the US dollar weakened. Flows were primarily directed into government
bond exposures and high yield debt.
ETF buying nearly halves in April as US rate cut hopes recede
May 9, 2024--Aversion to risk spurs sharp fall to equity ETFs while government bond ETF flows tick up
Investors pulled in their horns in April as diminishing prospects for near-term US interest rate cuts drove a broad aversion to risk, global data on exchange traded fund flows indicate.
Global Commodity Prices Level Off, Hurting Prospects for Lower Inflation
April 25, 2024--Major flare-up in Middle-East conflict could stoke global inflation
Global commodity prices are leveling off after a steep descent that played a decisive role in whittling down overall inflation last year, which could make it harder for central banks to cut interest rates quickly, according to the World Bank's latest Commodity Markets Outlook. The report also finds that a major outbreak of conflict in the Middle East could halt the inflationary decline that has occurred over the past two years.
China continues to dominate an expanded BRICS
April 12, 2024--In Brief
China's economic size and increasing assertiveness in foreign policy give it a dominant position in BRICS, which is reflected in intra-bloc trade flows and in the bloc's foreign policy positions. The future of BRICS is uncertain given its heavy dependence on China's economic future and the deteriorating sentiment towards China among its members. India's fast growth and increasing geopolitical heft also pose a challenge for the continuation of BRICS as a China-centric grouping.
Trade growth likely to pick up in 2024 in spite of challenging environment
April 12, 2024--The latest edition of the WTO's "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" foresees a gradual recovery in world merchandise trade volume in 2024 and 2025. This follows a contraction in 2023 driven by the lingering effects of high energy prices and inflation in advanced economies, particularly Europe. So, what does our forecast indicate?