Debt is Higher and Rising Faster in 80 Percent of Global Economy
May 29, 2025--Fiscal Policy under mounting uncertainty means government budgets need resilience-particularly in countries whose economic weight makes them influence global trends
Global public debt could increase to 100 percent of global gross domestic product by the end of the decade if current trends continue, according to projections in our latest Fiscal Monitor.
The rising ratio of public debt to GDP reflects renewed economic pressures as well as the consequences of pandemic-related fiscal support, according to our report. This trend raises fresh concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability as many countries face rising budget challenges.
The Chart of the Weekshows that about a third of countries, accounting for 80 percent of global GDP, have public debt that’s both higher than it was before the pandemic and rising at a faster pace. More than two-thirds of the 175 economies in our study now have heavier public debt burdens than before COVID spread in 2020.
Source: IMF.org
Chief Economists Warn Global Growth Under Strain from Trade Policy Shocks and AI Disruption
May 28, 2025--A majority of surveyed economists see current US economic policy as having a lasting global impact, with 87% expecting it to delay strategic business decisions and heighten recession risks.
The growth outlook is divided, with weak prospects in North America, resilience in Asia-Pacific and cautious optimism in Europe.
Public debt concerns are mounting as defence spending rises, with 86% of chief economists expecting increased government borrowing.
Artificial intelligence is expected to drive growth, but 47% anticipate net job losses.
The global economic outlook has worsened since the start of the year, as rising economic nationalism and tariff volatility fuel uncertainty and risk stalling long-term decision-making, according to a World Economic Forum report released today.
The latest Chief Economists Outlook reveals that a strong majority (79%) of surveyed economists view the current geoeconomic developments as signs of a significant structural shift for the global economy rather than a temporary disruption.
Source: WEF (World Economic Forum)
Fostering Core Government Bond Market Resilience
May 21, 2025--Policymakers should broaden central clearing and monitor market-making, including by nonbank financial institutions, while dealers must continue to build resilience
The smooth functioning of government bond markets is important for the safety and soundness of broader capital markets, especially amid heightened financial market volatility.
Bond markets recently adjusted sharply to an abrupt re-assessment of the global macroeconomic environment and elevated trade policy uncertainty.
Government bond market functioning demonstrated resilience despite very high volatility, and its continued stability remains essential for the financial system, as we show in the latest Global Financial Stability Report, which also assesses cross-country vulnerabilities in other financial sectors and markets.
Source: IMF.org
Asset Tokenization in Financial Markets: The Next Generation of Value Exchange
May 21, 2025--Tokenization offers a new model of digital asset ownership that enhances transparency, efficiency and accessibility. This report analyses asset class use cases in issuance, securities financing and asset management, identifying factors that enable successful tokenization implementation.
Key differentiators include a shared system of record, flexible custody, programmability, fractional ownership and composability across asset types. These features can democratize access to financial markets and modernize infrastructure.
Source: WEF (World Economic Forum)
UBS wealthy clients shift focus from U.S.-dollar assets to gold, crypto, and China
May 13, 2025--UBS says its wealthy clients are pulling money out of U.S.-dollar assets and shifting their investments to gold- crypto, and Chinese markets over trade tensions and a volatile global economy.
Investors felt safe keeping most of their wealth in U.S.-based assets for years because of the country's strong economy, stable currency, and deep financial markets. Still, recent trade disputes, new tariffs, and concerns about the long-term strength of the dollar are crushing their confidence.
Source: msn.com
Trackinsight Releases 2025 Global ETF Survey: ETF Industry on Overdrive: Shifting Gears, Breaking New Barriers
May 13, 2025--Trackinsight, in partnership with J.P. Morgan Asset Management and S&P Dow Jones Indices, is proud to announce the launch of its sixth annual global ETF survey report: ETF Industry on Overdrive: Shifting Gears, Breaking New Barriers.
Trackinsight, a global leader in ETF research and analytics, today announced the release of its Global ETF Survey 2025 Report, ETF Industry on Overdrive: Shifting Gears, Breaking New Barriers, in partnership with J.P. Morgan Asset Management and S&P Dow Jones Indices.
The global ETF engine is accelerating-and this year's report captures every twist, turn, and acceleration along the way.
Drawing on insights from over 600 professional investors managing more than $1.1 trillion in ETF assets globally, and powered by Trackinsight's extensive database of over 12,000 ETPs, the report delivers a comprehensive and forward-looking analysis of the ETF landscape.
Source: TRACKINSIGHT
New WFE Research Discovers Climate Risk Premium in Commodity Options
May 13, 2025--The World Federation of Exchanges' (WFE) new research finds that climate risks are positively priced into commodity options-meaning investors are rewarded for the climate-related risk they bear in holding these assets.
The research also highlights a relationship between climate policy uncertainty and climate risk premiums: moderate levels of policy uncertainty increase climate risk premiums by unsettling market expectations, while extreme uncertainty, beyond a certain level, reduces climate risks premiums as traders and producers adopt a "wait and see" strategy.
The paper, "Climate Risk Premium: Evidence from Commodity Options", authored by Kaitao Lin, Xin Gao, Bingxin Li, and Rui Liu, is the first to document and quantify the existence of a climate risk premium using commodity options.
Source: world-exchanges.org
Mapped: Billion Dollar Companies by Country in 2025
May 12, 2025--Key Takeaways
The U.S. is home to 1,873 billion dollar firms by market cap, more than a third of the global total.
Japan ranks in second worldwide, at 404 billion dollar publicly-listed firms.
Since 2000, the number of companies in India valued at $1 billion or more has jumped from 20 to 348.
Globally, there are 5,522 publicly-listed firms valued at $1 billion or more.
While the U.S. commands the largest share, increasingly, a growing number of large firms are emerging out of India and the broader Asia-Pacific region. Underpinning this trend is strong economic growth, rising capital inflows, and favorable demographics.
Source: visualcapitalist.com
CoinEx Research April 2025 Report: Bitcoin and Gold Dual Safe Havens in a Shifting World
May 6, 2025-CoinEx Research's April 2025 Report: In early April, Bitcoin fell to $74,500 amid escalating U.S. tariff tensions. A dramatic policy shift on April 9, with Trump announcing a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs and a 125% rate on Chinese imports, reignited market confidence.
Bitcoin surged over 14% for the month, peaking near $96,000 and outperforming major indices like the S&P 500. The appointment of Paul Atkins as SEC Chair added a regulatory tailwind, suggesting a potentially more favorable stance on crypto.
Source: CoinEx
World Bank Prospects Group Global Monthly-April 2025
April 30, 2025--Overview
In a context of rising trade tensions and heightened policy uncertainty, private sector forecasters have revised down near-term growth forecasts markedly.
Global financial market volatility spiked in April amid shifts in trade policy.
Commodity prices declined substantially, reflecting concerns about weakening demand and, in some cases, ample supply.
Special Focus: Synchronization of Business Cycles in EMDEs and the Rest of the World
Emerging market and developing economies' (EMDEs') increasing trade and financial integration with the rest of the world over recent decades has been accompanied by greater comovement of economic activity across EMDEs.
Although EMDEs' business cycles are increasingly synchronized, GDP growth in EMDEs still tends to be more correlated with growth in advanced economies (AEs).
Growth variation across economies can be attributed to three factors: a global factor capturing common cyclical movements across all economies; a group factor specific to AEs or EMDEs; and a factor specific to each economy. For EMDEs, the group factor has become increasingly important.
Source: worldbank.org