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Where is the global economy heading in 2024? This is what chief economists think
September 15, 2023--The global economy is likely to weaken in the coming year, according to 61% of respondents in the World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists Outlook.
A majority (86%) of chief economists are optimistic that the global inflationary surge will ease.
Economists warn that the economic outlook could undermine progress towards development goals, with 74% saying geopolitical tensions will have the same effect.
If you're looking for a one-word summary of what lies ahead for the world economy in the coming year, it could well be "volatility".
One of the biggest sources of this volatility will be geopolitics, according to the chief economists surveyed for the World Economic Forum's latest Chief Economists Outlook.
But the situation is also nuanced, the report suggests. More positive shifts appear likely, including drops in inflation and a slowdown in interest rate rises.
Global Debt Is Returning to its Rising Trend
September 13, 2023--Although global debt recorded another significant decline in 2022, it is still high, with debt sustainability remaining a concern
The global debt burden retreated for the second year in a row, even though it remains above its already-high pre-pandemic level, according to the latest update of our Global Debt Database.
The total debt stood at 238 percent of global gross domestic product last year, 9 percentage points higher than in 2019. In US dollar terms, debt amounted to $235 trillion, or $200 billion above its level in 2021.
Policymakers will need to be unwavering over the next few years in their commitment to preserving debt sustainability.
World Trade Report 2023 makes case for "re-globalization" amid early signs of fragmentation
September 12, 2023--The 2023 edition of the WTO's World Trade Report presents new evidence of the benefits of broader, more inclusive economic integration as early indications of trade fragmentation threaten to unwind growth and development.
The flagship publication, launched on 12 September, features findings on how re-globalization- or increased international cooperation and broader integration- can support security, inclusiveness, and environmental sustainability.
"The post-1945 international economic order was built on the idea that interdependence among nations through increased trade and economic ties would foster peace and shared prosperity. For most of the past 75 years, this idea guided policymakers, and helped lay the foundation for an unprecedented era of growth, higher living standards and poverty reduction," For most of the past 75 years, this idea guided policymakers, and helped lay the foundation for an unprecedented era of growth, higher living standards and poverty reduction," WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala says in her foreword to the report.
IEA Sees 'Beginning Of The End" Of Fossil Fuel Era
September 12, 2023---For the first time, world demand for oil, gas and coal is forecast to peak this decade due to the "spectacular" growth of cleaner energy technologies and electric cars, the International Energy Agency's chief said Tuesday.
The IEA's annual World Energy Outlook, due out next month, will show that "the world is on the cusp of a historic turning point", executive director Fatih Birol wrote in a column in the Financial Times.
The shift will have implications for the battle against climate change as it will bring forward the peak in greenhouse gas emissions, Birol said.
Algorithmic Trading Global Market Report 2023: Pioneering Innovations Drive Algorithmic Trading Market, Empowering Traders with Automation
September 11, 2023-The "Algorithmic Trading Global Market Report 2023" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.
The global algorithmic trading market has demonstrated remarkable growth, expanding from $16.02 billion in 2022 to $18.06 billion in 2023, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12.7%.
The algorithmic trading market is projected to continue its upward trajectory, reaching $28.59 billion by 2027, driven by a robust CAGR of 12.2%.
Worldwide Digital Asset-Based Exchange Traded Products AUM Surges 51% Year-to-Date
September 7, 2023--Fineqia International Inc. (the "Company" or "Fineqia"), a leading digital asset and fintech investment business, announces that its analysis of global Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) with digital assets as underlying collateral, revealed a 51% growth in total Assets Under Management (AUM) in the year-to-date (YTD) period amid renewed interest by investors.
Year-to-date, total crypto AUM shows a premium growth of 63.5% compared to the underlying value of digital assets, which grew slower at 31.5% since the beginning of the year. In Aug., total crypto AUM decreased 11% to $30.2 billion from $34 billion. The decrease mirrored the drop in values of digital assets during the same period. The market value of crypto assets fell 11%, to about $1.05 trillion from $1.17 trillion.
Financial system remains vulnerable to further liquidity strains, FSB warns
September 6, 2023--The progress report presents findings of work to assess and address "key amplifiers" of liquidity stress in non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI).
The report on the financial stability implications of NBFI leverage identifies pockets of high leverage in the NBFI sector and outlines the policy implications.
The March 2020 market turmoil and subsequent events, including the failure of Archegos and strains in commodities and bond markets, underscore the need to enhance the resilience of the NBFI sector.
The Financial Stability Board (FSB) published today its annual progress report to the G20 on enhancing the resilience of non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI).
The report presents findings of analytical work on vulnerabilities in particular entities and activities that may contribute to aggregate liquidity imbalances. It also describes policies being developed by the FSB and standard-setting bodies (SSBs) to reduce excessive and potentially destabilising spikes in liquidity demand, focusing on structural liquidity mismatch in open-ended funds and on margining practices.
Does Monetary Policy Have Long-Run Effects?
September 5, 2023--Monetary policy is often regarded as having only temporary effects on the economy, moderating the expansions and contractions that make up the business cycle. However, it is possible for monetary policy to affect an economy's long-run trajectory.
Analyzing cross-country data for a set of large national economies since 1900 suggests that tight monetary policy can reduce potential output even after a decade. By contrast, loose monetary policy does not appear to raise long-run potential. Such effects may be important for assessing the preferred stance of monetary policy.
Monetary policy has traditionally been regarded as being "neutral" in the long run. This means that the path of an economy over time is determined by factors other than what the central bank does, including the availability of workers and capital and how productively they can be combined. Monetary policy has generally been viewed as having a moderating influence on cyclical economic fluctuations. Its long-run effects are believed to be limited to nominal variables, such as prices and nominal interest rates.
IMF Working Paper-Unconventional Fiscal Policy in Times of High Inflation
September 1, 2023--Summary:
The surge in energy prices in 2022 has been a defining factor behind the increase in euro area inflation. We assess the impact of "unconventional fiscal policy", defined as the set of fiscal measures, possibly expansionary, motivated by a desire to mute the effects of the increase in energy prices and to lower inflation.
Overall, we find that these unconventional measures reduced euro area inflation by 1 to 2 percentage points in 2022 and may avoid an undershoot later on.
When nonlinearities in the Phillips curve are taken into account, the net effect is to reduce inflation by about 0.5 percentage points in 2021-24, and keep it nearer to its target. About one-third to one-half of the reduction in 2022 reflects the direct effects of the measures on headline inflation, with much of the remainder reflecting the lower pass-through to core inflation. The fiscal measures were deficit-financed but had limited effects on raising inflation by stimulating demand and instead modestly helped to stabilize longer-term inflation expectations. Looking ahead, the prospective decline in inflation in the euro area is partly due to fortunate circumstances, with energy prices falling from their 2022 peaks and their pass-through effects fading, and with less economic overheating than in economies such as the United States. Implementing similar measures in the face of a more persistent increase in energy prices, or in a more overheated economy, would have caused a more persistent rise in core inflation.
Buzzy ETFs Are Closing By the Hundreds
August 30, 2023-Exchange-traded fund managers have rushed to cash in on all sorts of hot investing themes with new offerings. Many of those ideas are now falling flat with investors.
Global fund closures have climbed to 929 in 2023, rising at a record pace from 373 at the same point last year, according to the research firm ETFGI.
New listings still exceed closures but have slowed 27% to 1,622.
