IMF-The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot-Global growth broadly unchanged amid persistent services inflation
July 23, 2024--Global growth is projected to be in line with the April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025.
Services inflation is holding up progress on disinflation, which is complicating monetary policy normalization.
Upside risks to inflation have thus increased, raising the prospect of higher for even longer interest rates, in the context of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty.
The policy mix should thus be sequenced carefully to achieve price stability and replenish diminished buffers.
Source: imf.org
ETFGI reports assets invested in the global ETFs industry reached a new record high of 13.14 trillion US Dollars at the end of June
July 17, 2024--ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm covering trends in the global ETFs ecosystem,reported today the global ETFs industry gathered US$136.17 billion in net inflows in June 2024, bringing year to date net inflows to a record US$730.36 billion, according to ETFGI's June 2024 global ETFs and ETPs industry landscape insights report, the monthly report which is part of an annual paid-for research subscription service. (All dollar values in USD unless otherwise noted)
Highlights
We expect 2024 to be a record year for net inflows and for assets invested in the global ETFs industry
Assets invested in the global ETFs industry reached a new record of $13.14 Tn at the end of June beating the previous record of $12.89 Tn at the end of May 2024.
Assets have increased 12.9% YTD in 2024, going from $11.63 Tn at end of 2023 to $13.14 Tn.
Net inflows of $136.17 Bn during June.
YTD net inflows of $730.36 Bn is the highest on record, while the second highest recorded YTD net inflows was of $658.86 Bn in 2021 and the third highest recorded YTD net inflows of 462.53 Bn in 2022.
61st month of consecutive net inflows.
The report, analyzing market trends and trading signals across spot trading volume, futures, options, and perpetual contracts, underscores a growing bullish sentiment toward ETH. Key findings indicate that investors are increasingly optimistic about ETH, particularly in anticipation of the imminent launch of the first Ether Spot ETFs in the United States. This optimism is reflected in ETH's sustained volatility premium over BTC, which has persisted amid heightened market activity.
Source: Bybit
The Bank for International Settlements warned on Sunday that rising government debt levels amid a number of major elections this year could roil global financial markets
June 30, 2024--Dubbed the central bankers' central bank, the BIS said the world economy was on course for the "smooth landing" that many economists doubted when interest rates shot up, but said policymakers, especially politicians, needed to be careful.
Global government debt is already at record levels and elections ranging from the U.S. presidential vote in November, through recent polls in Mexico and South Africa, to votes in France and Britain in the coming week, all carry risks.
Source: money.usnews.com
BIS Annual Economic Report 2024
June 30, 2024--Introduction
So far, so good. The world economy appears to be finally leaving behind the legacy of the Covid-19 pandemic and the commodity price shock of the war in Ukraine. The worst fears did not materialise. On balance, globally, inflation is continuing to decline towards targets, economic activity and the financial system have proved remarkably resilient, and both professional forecasters and financial market participants see a smooth landing ahead.
This was by no means a given a year ago. It is a great outcome.
Still, there is a "but". Challenges remain. The recent stickiness of inflation in some key jurisdictions reminds us that central banks' job is not yet done. Financial vulnerabilities have not gone away. Fragile fiscal positions cast a shadow as far as the eye can see. Subdued productivity growth clouds economic prospects. Beyond the near term, laying a more solid foundation for the future is as difficult as ever. It could not be otherwise: it is an arduous task that requires a long-term view, courage and perseverance.
Source: bis.org
G20 GDP growth picks up a little in the first quarter of 2024
June 12, 2024--Gross domestic product (GDP) in the G20 area grew by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2024 according to provisional estimates, slightly up from 0.7% in the previous quarter.
The economic performance of the G20 area was mainly driven by China and India in Q1 2024.[1] Both countries, along with Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Korea and Indonesia recorded higher GDP growth than the G20 as a whole.
Turkiye saw the highest growth at 2.4%, followed by India (1.9%), China (1.6%), Saudi Arabia (1.4%), Korea (1.3%) and Indonesia (1.2%). Growth recovered in Saudi Arabia following a contraction of 0.6% in Q4 2023. The GDP growth rate increased in China, Korea and Turkiye in Q1 compared with Q4, but fell slightly in India and Indonesia.
The remaining G20 countries experienced weaker growth than the G20 as a whole in Q1 2024. The United States saw a slowdown, with GDP growth dropping to 0.3% in Q1 from 0.8% in Q4 2023. The economy of Japan contracted by 0.5% in Q1, while South Africa experienced a contraction of 0.1%. On the other hand, Brazil, the United Kingdom and Germany recovered in Q1 after contractions in Q4, with growth reaching 0.8%, 0.6% and 0.2% respectively. Canada, Mexico and the European Union grew by 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.3% respectively in Q1 after zero growth in Q4.
Source: oecd.org
Bassanese Bites-Breather
May 26, 2024--Global markets-week in review
After four consecutive weekly gains, global equities took a breather last week with the S&P 500 inching ahead only 0.03%. Firm US service sector data and "high for longer" Fed rhetoric saw traders take profits in both the bond and equity markets after recent gains.
Probably the main highlight in a data-light week was the strength in the US services sector PMI. The S&P US service sector index blew past market expectations, rising to 54.4 from 51.1. Also concerning was a lift in input costs. The result ran counter to a run of recent softer reports for employment growth and retail sales. Overall, the US economy remains firm, though whether this necessarily implies inflation will prove stubbornly firm remains to be seen.
Source: betashares.com.au
ETFs shift from 'core' to 'satellite' in portfolios
May 23, 2024-- BBH survey indicates the funds are increasingly vehicles of choice for active strategies and tactical short-term use
Exchange traded funds are increasingly vehicles of choice for active strategies and for tactical short-term use, a new study reveals, underlining how much has changed from their buy-and-hold, broad market historical origins.
Actively managed ETFs that guarantee protection against losses, leveraged or inverse strategies that reset daily and cryptocurrency investments, topped the list of ETF strategies that appealed most to investors in the US, Europe, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, according to the latest Brown Brothers Harriman survey of more than 300 institutional investors globally.
Source: ft.com
Amundi ETF Market Strategy-Weekly Pulse
May 17, 2024--Risk assets extended gains and hovered near record highs. A further deceleration in inflation revived hopes that both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) are heading closer to a pivot in monetary policy.
Treasuries rallied across the board and the US dollar weakened. Flows were primarily directed into government
bond exposures and high yield debt.
Japan and EM exposures were favoured within equities.
PREDICTABILITY WITH FIXED MATURITY
Navigating the ECB's future policy rates path:
The final inflation release for April indicated continued disinflation in the euro area, clearing the way for the
central bank to start cutting rates in June.
Source: amundi.com