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Emerging Markets Navigate Global Interest Rate Volatility
January 31, 2024--Major emerging markets have shown resilience to global rate gyrations, but more challenging times could be ahead
Global interest rates in recent months have gone on a rollercoaster, especially those on longer-term government bonds. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries are climbing again after pulling back from a 16-year high of 5 percent in October. Interest rate moves in other advanced economies had been equally prodigious.
Emerging market economies, however, saw much milder rate moves. We take a longer-term perspective on this in our latest Global Financial Stability Report, demonstrating that the average sensitivity to US interest rates of 10-year sovereign yield of Latin American and Asian emerging markets declined by two-thirds and two-fifths, respectively, during the current monetary policy tightening cycle compared with the taper tantrum in 2013.
While the lower sensitivity is in part due to the divergence in monetary policy between advanced economies’ and emerging markets’ central banks over the past two years, it nonetheless challenges findings in the economic literature that show large spillovers from advanced economies’ interest rates to emerging markets. In particular, major emerging markets have been more insulated from global interest rate volatility than would be expected based on historical experience, especially in Asia.
Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain
January 30, 2024--Policy focus must shift to repairing public finances and improving medium-term growth prospects
The clouds are beginning to part. The global economy begins the final descent toward a soft landing, with inflation declining steadily and growth holding up. But the pace of expansion remains slow, and turbulence may lie ahead.
Global activity proved resilient in the second half of last year, as demand and supply factors supported major economies.
On the demand side, stronger private and government spending sustained activity, despite tight monetary conditions. On the supply side, increased labor force participation, mended supply chains and cheaper energy and commodity prices helped, despite renewed geopolitical uncertainties.
This resilience will carry over. Global growth under our baseline forecast will steady at 3.1 percent this year, a 0.2 percentage point upgrade from our October projections, before edging up to 3.2 percent next year.
Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work
January 14, 2024--Summary:
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to reshape the global economy, especially in the realm of labor markets. Advanced economies will experience the benefits and pitfalls of AI sooner than emerging market and developing economies, largely due to their employment structure focused on cognitive-intensive roles.
There are some consistent patterns concerning AI exposure, with women and college-educated individuals more exposed but also better poised to reap AI benefits, and older workers potentially less able to adapt to the new technology.
Labor income inequality may increase if the complementarity between AI and high-income workers is strong, while capital returns will increase wealth inequality. However, if productivity gains are sufficiently large, income levels could surge for most workers. In this evolving landscape, advanced economies and more developed emerging markets need to focus on upgrading regulatory frameworks and supporting labor reallocation, while safeguarding those adversely affected. Emerging market and developing economies should prioritize developing digital infrastructure and digital skills
Housing Affordability Remains Stretched Amid Higher Interest Rate Environment
January 11, 2024--Prospective home buyers face high prices and elevated borrowing costs, while homeowners refrain from listing their properties
As global central banks raised interest rates to tame inflation, home prices have cooled relative to the start of the hiking cycle.
However, despite the sensitivity of the residential market to higher policy rates, prices are still above historical averages. Home prices in advanced economies, including most European Union countries, as well as Africa and the Middle East are 10 percent to 25 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Rising interest rates have passed swiftly to residential mortgage markets, impeding affordability for current and prospective home buyers. Additionally, scarce home supply is limiting purchases in some regions. In all, housing affordability is more stretched amid still-elevated home prices and higher interest rates.
WEF-Global Risks Report 2024
January 10, 2024--Global growth is projected to be in line with the April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025.
The Global Risks Report, developed in collaboration with Marsh McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group, explores some of the most severe risks we may face over the next decade, against a backdrop of rapid technological change, economic uncertainty, a warming planet and conflict.
As cooperation comes under pressure, weakened economies and societies may only require the smallest shock to edge past the tipping point of resilience.
A deteriorating global outlook
Looking back at the events of 2023, plenty of developments captured the attention of people around the world-while others received minimal scrutiny. Vulnerable populations grappled with lethal conflicts, from Sudan to Gaza and Israel, alongside record-breaking heat conditions, drought, wildfires and flooding. Societal discontent was palpable in many countries, with news cycles dominated by polarization, violent protests, riots and strikes.
Although globally destabilizing consequences - such as those seen at the initial outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war or the COVID-19 pandemic- were largely avoided, the longer-term outlook for these developments could bring further global shocks.
High demand for energy-related critical minerals creates supply chain pressures
January 10, 2024--Critical minerals, such as cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel and rare earths, play a crucial role in the production of clean energy technologies, from wind turbines to electric cars. Over the past 20 years, annual trade in energy-related critical minerals has increased from US$ 53 billion to US$ 378 billion. However, the high demand for clean technology goods is putting pressure on the supply chains for these minerals.
Critical minerals are particularly in demand for the production of batteries for electric cars, with each battery requiring as much as 200kg of critical minerals. The battery sector is responsible for 70 per cent of the global demand for cobalt. It also requires aluminium, copper, lithium, nickel and rare earths. Electrolysers-crucial for green hydrogen production-rely on a variety of critical minerals, including platinum and iridium, two of the world’s rarest and most expensive metals. Rare earth elements are needed in particular for magnets, a vital component in many electrical machines, especially the most energy-efficient ones.
Global Economy Set for Weakest Half-Decade Performance in 30 Years
January 9, 2024---As the world nears the midpoint of what was intended to be a transformative decade for development, the global economy is set to rack up a sorry record by the end of 2024-the slowest half-decade of GDP growth in 30 years, according to the World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospectsreport.
By one measure, the global economy is in a better place than it was a year ago: the risk of a global recession has receded, largely because of the strength of the U.S. economy. But mounting geopolitical tensions could create fresh near-term hazards for the world economy.
Meanwhile, the medium-term outlook has darkened for many developing economies amid slowing growth in most major economies, sluggish global trade, and the tightest financial conditions in decades. Global trade growth in 2024 is expected to be only half the average in the decade before the pandemic . Meanwhile, borrowing costs for developing economies-especially those with poor credit ratings-are likely to remain steep with global interest rates stuck at four-decade highs in inflation-adjusted terms.
Global Economy Set for Weakest Half-Decade Performance in 30 Years
January 9, 2024--Reforms to boost investment and strengthen fiscal policy could help turn the tide
As the world nears the midpoint of what was intended to be a transformative decade for development, the global economy is set to rack up a sorry record by the end of 2024-the slowest half-decade of GDP growth in 30 years, according to the World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects report.
By one measure, the global economy is in a better place than it was a year ago: the risk of a global recession has receded, largely because of the strength of the U.S. economy. But mounting geopolitical tensions could create fresh near-term hazards for the world economy.
Meanwhile, the medium-term outlook has darkened for many developing economies amid slowing growth in most major economies, sluggish global trade, and the tightest financial conditions in decades. Global trade growth in 2024 is expected to be only half the average in the decade before the pandemic . Meanwhile, borrowing costs for developing economies-especially those with poor credit ratings-are likely to remain steep with global interest rates stuck at four-decade highs in inflation-adjusted terms.
ETF investors jumped into a host of lossmaking trades in 2023
January 8, 2024--The unusual behaviour hit returns but also challenges theory that buy-high-sell-low mentality tends to prevail
Exchange traded fund investors pumped money into a host of lossmaking trades last year while pulling money out of a range of better-performing assets.
The unusual move, challenge the received wisdom that investors all too often jump on passing bandwagons and buy whatever is rising in value, typically at the wrong point in the cycle.
In the short term, at least, though, the divergences between performance and flows will have hit ETF investors in the pocket.
Protracted period of low growth looms large, undermining progress on sustainable development, warns UN flagship economic report
January 4, 2023-- Weakening global trade, high borrowing costs, elevated public debt, persistently low investment, and mounting geopolitical tensions put global growth at risk
Global economic growth is projected to slow from an estimated 2.7 per cent in 2023 to 2.4 per cent in 2024, trending below the pre-pandemic growth rate of 3.0 per cent, according to the United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2024, launched today. This latest forecast comes on the heels of global economic performance exceeding expectations in 2023.
However, last year's stronger-than-expected GDP growth masked short-term risks and structural vulnerabilities.
The UN's flagship economic report presents a sombre economic outlook for the near term. Persistently high interest rates, further escalation of conflicts, sluggish international trade, and increasing climate disasters, pose significant challenges to global growth.
The prospects of a prolonged period of tighter credit conditions and higher borrowing costs present strong headwinds for a world economy saddled with debt, while in need of more investments to resuscitate growth, fight climate change and accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
view the United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2024 report