Services trade growth slows in first quarter of 2025
July 31, 2025--Global services trade growth slowed in the first quarter of 2025 to 5% year-on-year, roughly half the pace recorded in both 2024 and 2023. The appreciation of the US dollar against the euro and other currencies, coupled with increased economic uncertainty, contributed to the slowdown in services trade in the early months of the year.
Services exports in Europe and North America increased by only 3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, down from 8% and 11% respectively in the first quarter of 2024. In contrast, strong growth was sustained in Asia at 9%.
The overall slowdown in services trade was mainly due to "Other commercial services," a category that encompasses a wide variety of mostly digitally deliverable services ranging from financial to professional services. In 2024, "Other commercial services" accounted for some 60% of global services trade, with Europe contributing 40% of those exports.
Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)
WTO-Trade imbalances and the limits of trade policy
July 31, 2025--Trade imbalances have long been a concern for policymakers, prompting calls for corrective trade measures. Recent tariff actions- framed in part as efforts to reduce bilateral deficits -fit this established pattern.
Notable precedents include the United States-Japan trade tensions of the 1980s and the global imbalance debates following the 2008 financial crisis. The connection is not merely anecdotal: empirical research shows that trade imbalances, particularly at the bilateral level, are strong predictors of trade action.
Interpreting trade imbalances
From an economic perspective, trade imbalances are not necessarily problematic. Sectoral imbalances arise from specialization: a country with a comparative advantage in services may run a surplus in services and a deficit in goods. Aggregate imbalances, in turn, reflect differences between national saving and investment. If a country invests more than it saves, the additional investment goods must come from abroad. From this perspective, trade imbalances are not signs of dysfunction, but channels through which economies realize the gains from trade, across sectors and over time.
While trade imbalances can therefore reflect healthy economic forces, they are not immune to policy distortion. Tariffs can alter sectoral trade patterns, reducing the deficit in a targeted sector at the expense of other sectors. They can also distort bilateral flows, narrowing the deficit with a targeted partner while widening it with others. Industrial policy, now central to many policy debates, can have similar effects. Long-run broad-based industrial policy intervention can significantly influence the allocation of resources across sectors, often promoting tradable manufacturing over non-tradable services.
Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)
World Bank Group-Development Economics-Prospects Group
July 30, 2025--Overview
The global growth outlook for 2025 remains weak as trade-related headwinds and elevated policy uncertainty continue to weigh on manufacturing and services activity.
High-frequency indicators point to decelerating economic activity in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).
Yet, global financial conditions generally eased in June and July, and risk appetite has remained robust across many advanced economies and EMDEs.
Special Focus: Macroeconomic and Development Challenges in FCS Economies
The 39 EMDEs currently classified as being in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS), home to more than one billion people, are a mix of low- and middle-income economies spread across all regions.
FCS economies have lagged other EMDEs in many measures of macroeconomic performance for decades. Growth is slower and more volatile. Capital formation and job creation are lower. Together, weak state capacity and slow, erratic growth constrain governments' ability to raise revenue, contributing to high risk of debt distress.
Global poverty and food insecurity are increasingly concentrated in FCS economies, where insufficient investment in education and health are undermining human development.
Source: worldbank.org
Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty
July 29, 2025--Global growth expected to decelerate as trade-related distortions wane
Global current account balances widened by a sizable 0.6 percentage points of world GDP in 2024.
Global growth is projected at 3.0 percent for 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, an upward revision from the April 2025 World Economic Outlook.
This reflects front-loading ahead of tariffs, lower effective tariff rates, better financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions.
Global inflation is expected to fall, but US inflation is predicted to stay above target. Downside risks from potentially higher tariffs, elevated uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions persist.
Source: IMF.org
OECD Compendium of Productivity Indicators 2025
July 25, 2025-Executive summary
Productivity growth remained subdued in 2023 and 2024 amid a shifting geopolitical and economic landscape
Productivity growth remained subdued in 2023 and 2024 amid a shifting geopolitical and economic landscape
Following a 0.2% drop in 2022 compared to 2021, labour productivity across all OECD countries rebounded modestly to 0.6% in 2023.
In the euro area, labour productivity fell sharply by 0.9% in 2023, marking the steepest decline since the 2008 financial crisis. Experimental estimates suggest that labour productivity growth is likely to have grown modestly at around 0.4% in 2024 on average across OECD countries, excluding Türkiye.
While Artificial Intelligence (AI), particularly Generative AI, is expected to positively shape future productivity trends if the right policies are in place, its impact is not yet evident in the productivity statistics.
Source: oecd.org
ETFGI reports that assets invested in the actively managed ETFs listed globally reached a new record of US$1.48 trillion at the end of June
July 22, 2025-ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm renowned for its expertise in subscription research, consulting services, events, and ETF TV on global ETF industry trends, reported today that assets invested in the actively managed ETFs industry globally reached a new record of US$1.48 trillion at the end of June.
During June the actively managed ETFs industry globally gathered net inflows of US$46.77 billion, bringing year-to-date net inflows to a record US$267.02 billion, according to ETFGI's June 2025 Active ETF and ETP industry landscape insights report, an annual paid-for research subscription service. (All dollar values in USD unless otherwise noted.)
Global Actively Managed ETF Industry Update-June 2025
Record-High Assets: Assets invested in the global actively managed ETFs industry reached a new all-time high of $1.48 trillion at the end of June 2025, surpassing the previous record of $1.39 trillion set in May 2025.
Strong Year-to-Date Growth: Assets have grown by 26.7% year-to-date, rising from $1.17 trillion at the end of 2024 to $1.48 trillion by June 2025.
Robust Monthly Inflows: The industry recorded $46.77 billion in net inflows during June 2025.
Record-Breaking YTD Inflows: Year-to-date net inflows stand at $267.02 billion, the highest on record.
This surpasses the previous YTD records of $153.46 billion in 2024 and $80.03 billion in 2021.
Sustained Momentum: June marked the 63rd consecutive month of net inflows into actively managed ETFs.
Source: ETFGI
Global Current Account Balances Widen, Reversing Narrowing Trend
July 22, 2025--Growing imbalances in largest economies underscore need for concerted adjustment in domestic macroeconomic policies
Global current account balances widened by a sizable 0.6 percentage points of world GDP in 2024.
When adjusted to account for the volatility around the pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine,, the widening is a notable reversal of the narrowing since the global financial crisis and may signal a significant structural shift.
Our just released 2025 External Sector Report (ESR) presents the latest assessment of these imbalances for the 30 largest economies, representing about 90 percent of world output. This assessment constitutes a key part of the IMF's mandate to encourage the balanced expansion of trade and economic growth and promote international monetary cooperation.
Source: IMF.org
Visualizing the World's Biggest Oil Producers by Country
July 16, 2025-Key Takeaways
The U.S. tops global oil production with nearly one-fifth of daily output.
Five countries produce over half of the world's oil every day.
The global oil landscape is dominated by a handful of powerhouse producers whose output shapes energy markets,prices,and geopolitics.
This graphic breaks down daily production in thousands of barrels and the share each country holds of total supply. From North American shale fields to Middle Eastern giants,this chart offers a clear snapshot of how oil flows from well to world.
Source: visualcapitalist.com
WTO issues new edition of World Tariff Profiles
July 7, 2025-The WTO published on 7 July the 2025 edition of World Tariff Profiles, which provides comprehensive data on the tariffs and non-tariff measures imposed by over 170 economies. It is a joint publication of the WTO, the International Trade Centre (ITC) and UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
The publication provides summary tables listing the average "bound" (maximum) tariffs and applied tariffs for each economy for both agricultural and non-agricultural products as of end-2024.
One-page profiles offer more detailed tariff data broken down by product groups for each economy based on the WTO's Multilateral Trade Negotiations (MTN) categories, the product classification system used by the WTO for trade statistics and policy analysis.
Also shown are the tariffs imposed on its exports by its main trading partners. Summaries of the import and export tariffs for each economy are also provided. These are complemented by statistics on non-tariff measures (NTMs) by economy and product group.
Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)
Flow Traders-Tokenization in Capital Markets: A Market Maker's Perspective
July 3, 2025-Tokenization unlocks efficiencies like instant settlement, 24/7 trading, and fractional ownership-but real-world adoption depends on solving infrastructure and regulatory challenges, not just technology.
Market makers face key friction points in tokenized markets: fragmented liquidity requiring pre-funding across blockchains, lack of product-market fit without real demand, and operational complexity from 24/7 trading.
Stablecoins succeeded because of simplicity, open access, and clear use cases in payments and crypto trading; tokenized money market funds are slower to grow due to compliance burdens and less obvious utility.
A common misconception is that market makers can manufacture liquidity out of thin air-when in reality, they rely on demand, legal clarity, and reliable settlement rails to operate effectively.
Tokenization's future hinges on fixing infrastructure-cross-chain interoperability, legal certainty, investor access, and better tooling-before it can meaningfully scale in capital markets.
Source: flowtraders