Disclosing Public Debt Boosts Investor Confidence, Cuts Borrowing Costs
June 12, 2025--Greater debt transparency builds investor confidence, helps reduce borrowing costs, and strengthens debt sustainability-reducing the risk of shocks that can lead to a debt crisis
Public debt is projected to reach nearly 100 percent of global gross domestic product by the end of this decade, surpassing even pandemic-level highs.
Governments, particularly those in emerging market and developing economies, face both mounting debt service costs and shrinking room to maneuver in government budgets.
The result is fewer resources for social programs or investments, reduced capacity to respond to shocks, and higher borrowing costs.
In addition to issuing more debt, countries are increasingly using complex and opaque forms of financing. New debt instruments such as guaranteed, securitized, and collateralized debt contracts linked to public-private partnerships, state-owned enterprises, or SOEs, and pension funds have appeared on the scene.
Source: IMF.org
Global Economy Set for Weakest Run Since 2008 Outside of Recessions
June 10, 2025--2025 Growth Forecasts Cut for 70 Percent of Economies
Heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty are expected to drive global growth down this year to its slowest pace since 2008 outside of outright global recessions, according to the World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects report.
The turmoil has resulted in growth forecasts being cut in nearly 70% of all economies-across all regions and income groups.
Global growth is projected to slow to 2.3 percent in 2025, nearly half a percentage point lower than the rate that had been expected at the start of the year. A global recession is not expected. Nevertheless, if forecasts for the next two years materialize, average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s will be the slowest of any decade since the 1960s.
Source: worldbank.org
Trade Reckoning
June 3, 2025--Stalled trade integration and rising tariffs are testing global economic resilience
For decades, world trade expanded rapidly as countries lowered tariffs and embraced globalization. Tariff rates fell dramatically worldwide, converging toward the low levels of the United States.
But progress has stalled. Since the 2008 financial crisis, trade openness has stopped rising and global imports have leveled off at about a third of GDP. Trade tensions have escalated this year, and some major economies are reversing course, with US tariffs in April reaching the highest level in over a century. Other countries have responded.
This new trade landscape has serious consequences for the global economy. Many smaller, trade-reliant countries are more exposed to these shifts in trade patterns. Trade policy uncertainty is off the charts, making it harder for businesses everywhere to plan ahead.
Source: IMF.org
Debt is Higher and Rising Faster in 80 Percent of Global Economy
May 29, 2025--Fiscal Policy under mounting uncertainty means government budgets need resilience-particularly in countries whose economic weight makes them influence global trends
Global public debt could increase to 100 percent of global gross domestic product by the end of the decade if current trends continue, according to projections in our latest Fiscal Monitor.
The rising ratio of public debt to GDP reflects renewed economic pressures as well as the consequences of pandemic-related fiscal support, according to our report. This trend raises fresh concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability as many countries face rising budget challenges.
The Chart of the Weekshows that about a third of countries, accounting for 80 percent of global GDP, have public debt that’s both higher than it was before the pandemic and rising at a faster pace. More than two-thirds of the 175 economies in our study now have heavier public debt burdens than before COVID spread in 2020.
Source: IMF.org
Chief Economists Warn Global Growth Under Strain from Trade Policy Shocks and AI Disruption
May 28, 2025--A majority of surveyed economists see current US economic policy as having a lasting global impact, with 87% expecting it to delay strategic business decisions and heighten recession risks.
The growth outlook is divided, with weak prospects in North America, resilience in Asia-Pacific and cautious optimism in Europe.
Public debt concerns are mounting as defence spending rises, with 86% of chief economists expecting increased government borrowing.
Artificial intelligence is expected to drive growth, but 47% anticipate net job losses.
The global economic outlook has worsened since the start of the year, as rising economic nationalism and tariff volatility fuel uncertainty and risk stalling long-term decision-making, according to a World Economic Forum report released today.
The latest Chief Economists Outlook reveals that a strong majority (79%) of surveyed economists view the current geoeconomic developments as signs of a significant structural shift for the global economy rather than a temporary disruption.
Source: WEF (World Economic Forum)
Fostering Core Government Bond Market Resilience
May 21, 2025--Policymakers should broaden central clearing and monitor market-making, including by nonbank financial institutions, while dealers must continue to build resilience
The smooth functioning of government bond markets is important for the safety and soundness of broader capital markets, especially amid heightened financial market volatility.
Bond markets recently adjusted sharply to an abrupt re-assessment of the global macroeconomic environment and elevated trade policy uncertainty.
Government bond market functioning demonstrated resilience despite very high volatility, and its continued stability remains essential for the financial system, as we show in the latest Global Financial Stability Report, which also assesses cross-country vulnerabilities in other financial sectors and markets.
Source: IMF.org
Asset Tokenization in Financial Markets: The Next Generation of Value Exchange
May 21, 2025--Tokenization offers a new model of digital asset ownership that enhances transparency, efficiency and accessibility. This report analyses asset class use cases in issuance, securities financing and asset management, identifying factors that enable successful tokenization implementation.
Key differentiators include a shared system of record, flexible custody, programmability, fractional ownership and composability across asset types. These features can democratize access to financial markets and modernize infrastructure.
Source: WEF (World Economic Forum)
UBS wealthy clients shift focus from U.S.-dollar assets to gold, crypto, and China
May 13, 2025--UBS says its wealthy clients are pulling money out of U.S.-dollar assets and shifting their investments to gold- crypto, and Chinese markets over trade tensions and a volatile global economy.
Investors felt safe keeping most of their wealth in U.S.-based assets for years because of the country's strong economy, stable currency, and deep financial markets. Still, recent trade disputes, new tariffs, and concerns about the long-term strength of the dollar are crushing their confidence.
Source: msn.com
Trackinsight Releases 2025 Global ETF Survey: ETF Industry on Overdrive: Shifting Gears, Breaking New Barriers
May 13, 2025--Trackinsight, in partnership with J.P. Morgan Asset Management and S&P Dow Jones Indices, is proud to announce the launch of its sixth annual global ETF survey report: ETF Industry on Overdrive: Shifting Gears, Breaking New Barriers.
Trackinsight, a global leader in ETF research and analytics, today announced the release of its Global ETF Survey 2025 Report, ETF Industry on Overdrive: Shifting Gears, Breaking New Barriers, in partnership with J.P. Morgan Asset Management and S&P Dow Jones Indices.
The global ETF engine is accelerating-and this year's report captures every twist, turn, and acceleration along the way.
Drawing on insights from over 600 professional investors managing more than $1.1 trillion in ETF assets globally, and powered by Trackinsight's extensive database of over 12,000 ETPs, the report delivers a comprehensive and forward-looking analysis of the ETF landscape.
Source: TRACKINSIGHT
New WFE Research Discovers Climate Risk Premium in Commodity Options
May 13, 2025--The World Federation of Exchanges' (WFE) new research finds that climate risks are positively priced into commodity options-meaning investors are rewarded for the climate-related risk they bear in holding these assets.
The research also highlights a relationship between climate policy uncertainty and climate risk premiums: moderate levels of policy uncertainty increase climate risk premiums by unsettling market expectations, while extreme uncertainty, beyond a certain level, reduces climate risks premiums as traders and producers adopt a "wait and see" strategy.
The paper, "Climate Risk Premium: Evidence from Commodity Options", authored by Kaitao Lin, Xin Gao, Bingxin Li, and Rui Liu, is the first to document and quantify the existence of a climate risk premium using commodity options.
Source: world-exchanges.org