New WFE Research quantifies the impact of stock exchanges on economic growth
January 6, 2025--The World Federation of Exchanges, the global industry association for exchanges and CCPs (The WFE), has published new research which analyses the link between stock market development and economic growth on a global scale.
The research analysed quarterly data from 36 countries over two decades (2003-2022).
Key findings
Short term analysis:
There is a two-way influence between economic output growth and the stock market capitalisation in the short term, but only for high-income countries.
Low and middle-income countries experience a unidirectional relationship in the short term, where stock market capitalisation positively impacts economic growth, but not vice versa.
This means that low and middle-income country exchanges aren’t seeing a positive impact on their market capitalisation as a result of economic growth, though higher market capitalisation leads to higher economic growth.
Source: WFE (World Federation of Exchanges)
5 transformational trends shaping global finance
January 6, 2025--The global economy has undergone seismic changes since the pandemic.
Major structural shifts are underway, shaped by five fundamental forces:
Deglobalization, decarbonization, debt, digitalization, and demographics.
The global economy is very different now compared with even just a few years ago.
Thanks to tectonic shifts since COVID-19, major structural changes are underway. Deglobalization, decarbonization, demographics, surging debt, and digitalization are all shaping the world’s economy and financial markets.
These five fundamental forces -the "Five D’s"- establish a multi-dimensional decision space for policymakers and investors. They require careful evaluation, as they have the potential for transformational impacts.
Source: weforum.org
7 Predictions For Crypto In 2025: Bitcoin, ETFs & Global Adoption
December 23, 2024-- The year 2024 marked a historic turning point for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. It saw the launch of the first Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, signaling genuine institutional adoption. Bitcoin shattered the $100,000 milestone for the first time, while stablecoins continued to reinforce the global dominance of the US dollar.
Adding to this momentum, the winning U.S. presidential candidate made support for Bitcoin a central pillar of his campaign.
Collectively, these milestones cemented 2024 as the year the crypto industry proved itself to be an unstoppable force on the global stage. As the industry shifts its focus to 2025, here are my seven predictions of major events we can expect to take place next year.
1) A major G7 or BRICS nation will establish and announce a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Source: forbes.com
Indxx Charts New Heights: $40 Billion in Assets Tracking Indxx Indices
December 6, 2024-Indxx, a provider of indexing solutions for exchange traded funds (ETFs), is pleased to announce that assets tracking its indices across the globe have surpassed $40 billion.
For over 15 years, Indxx has been redefining the indexing industry with end-to-end indexing solutions ranging from index development to calculation & administration and data & technology products. Currently, over 175 products track its indices with over $40 billion in assets tracking them. Products tracking Indxx Indices are listed across major geographies worldwide, including the US, Central and South America, UK, Europe, Japan, South Korea, Israel, and Australia.
Source: Indxx
Developing Countries Paid Record $1.4 Trillion on Foreign Debt in 2023
December 3, 2024--Financial Squeeze on Poorest Economies Tightened as Private Creditors Retreated
Developing countries spent a record $1.4 trillion to service their foreign debt as their interest costs climbed to a 20-year high in 2023, the World Bank's latest International Debt Report shows. Interest payments surged by nearly a third to $406 billion, squeezing the budgets of many countries in critical areas such as health, education, and the environment.
The financial strain was fiercest for the poorest and most vulnerable countries-those eligible to borrow from the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA), the data show. These countries paid a record $96.2 billion to service their debt in 2023.
Source: worldbank.org
New report examines how artificial intelligence may shape future of international trade
November 21, 2024--A new report published today (21 November) by the WTO Secretariat discusses the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on world trade. The report examines key trade-related policy considerations raised by this technology and discusses the critical role of the WTO in facilitating AI-related trade, ensuring trustworthy AI, and promoting global regulatory convergence.
The report was launched at an event at the WTO attended by representatives from government, academia and the private sector.
The report, entitled "Trading with Intelligence: How AI Shapes and is Shaped by International Trade", discusses how AI can reduce trade costs, reshape trade in services, increase trade in AI-related goods and services, and redefine economies' comparative advantages. The report also highlights the increasing fragmentation of approaches to AI regulation, which may have a particular impact on trade opportunities for micro, small and medium-sized businesses.
The report provides an overview of government initiatives taken at the domestic, regional and international levels both to promote and to regulate AI.
Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)
OECD GDP growth remains stable in the third quarter of 2024
November 21, 2024--"Gross domestic product (GDP) in the OECD rose by 0.5% in the third quarter of 2024, slightly up from 0.4% in the previous quarter, according to provisional estimates."
Gross domestic product (GDP) in the OECD rose by 0.5% in the third quarter of 2024, slightly up from 0.4% in the previous quarter,1 according to provisional estimates (Figure 1).
The overall GDP growth rate for the G7 remained unchanged in Q3 2024, at 0.5%. This reflects a mixed picture among G7 countries. While growth in the United States remained stable in Q3 at 0.7%, it slowed in Canada and Japan (from 0.5% in Q2 to 0.2% in Q3 in both countries), the United Kingdom (from 0.5% to 0.1%) and Italy (from 0.2% to 0.0%).
The slowdown in Japan mainly reflected contractions in investment (-0.3% in Q3, compared with 1.6% in Q2) and exports of services (-4.2%, compared with 9.4%), the latter mostly due to lower tourism. In Italy, the reduction in growth was related to a negative contribution from net trade (exports minus imports) and mainly reflected a decrease of value added in agriculture, forestry and fishing, and in industry2 (see Italian statistical office). In the United Kingdom, the Q3 slowdown reflected destocking, which was the main drag on growth.
Source: OECD
G20 Economies Should Target Reforms to Boost Medium-Term Growth Prospects
November 21, 2024--Improving fiscal policy frameworks, fostering education and skills, and supporting the green transition can help ensure strong, sustainable, balanced, and inclusive growth
For most Group of Twenty economies, growth is poised to weaken over the next five years and remain well below what was typical in the two decades before the pandemic.
That's one of the biggest shared challenges for the group, which accounts for about 85 percent of global gross domestic product.
Growth is more robust across the African Union, which joined the G20 last year, but booming populations mean those economies also must create jobs for millions of young people entering the labor market.
For both groups, as well as the European Union, lifting growth is essential to improving outcomes for people, and there's a common solution: implementing priority reforms can significantly boost prospects for growth over the next five years, or medium term, as our new report to the G20 outlines. Our analysis also indicates that payoffs from structural reforms are greatest when they are carefully sequenced and reflect social consensus.
Source: imf.org
Report shows surge in G20 trade-restrictive measures amid increased unilateral policies
November 13, 2024--Trade restrictive measures introduced by G20 economies significantly increased in coverage over the past year, according to the 31st WTO Trade Monitoring Report on G20 trade measures issued on 13 November. Although G20 economies also continued to introduce wide-ranging trade facilitating measures, the report points to increasing evidence of inward-looking and unilateral trade policy decisions.
Warning that these measures are creating uncertainty for the world economy, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala called on G20 governments to refrain from adopting new restrictions that could worsen the global economic outlook.
Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)
IMF-Fiscal Monitor October 2024: Putting a Lid on Public Debt
October 23, 2024--Global public debt is elevated. It is projected to exceed US$100 trillion in 2024 and will rise over the medium term. This chapter shows that risks to the debt outlook are heavily tilted to the upside. In a severely adverse scenario, global debt is estimated to be nearly 20 percentage points of GDP higher three years ahead than the baseline projection, reaching 115 percent of GDP.
Much larger fiscal adjustments than currently planned are required to stabilize (or reduce) debt with high probability. Now is an opportune time for rebuilding fiscal buffers and delaying is costly. Rebuilding fiscal buffers in a growth-friendly manner and strengthening fiscal governance is essential to ensure sustainable public finances and financial stability.
Source: imf.org