Goods barometer rises above trend, signalling upturn in trade volume
September 4, 2024--Global goods trade has continued to recover in the third quarter of 2024 after demand for traded goods stalled in 2023 amid high inflation and rising interest rates, according to the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer.
Despite the positive signal from the barometer index, the outlook for trade remains highly uncertain due to rising geopolitical tensions, ongoing regional conflicts, shifting monetary policy in advanced economies and weakening export orders.
The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends. Barometer values greater than 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes while barometer values less than 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below trend or will do so in the near future.
The full Goods Trade Barometer is available here.
Shenzhen and Dubai Forge Stronger Financial Ties with New Cross-Border ETF Agreement
September 3, 2024--The Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Dubai Financial Market recently signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to enhance cross-border investing between China and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), with a focus on exchange-traded funds (ETFs), per reporting by the Financial Times. This partnership marks a significant step in the growing financial relationship between China and the Middle East.
Under the MOU, the two exchanges will collaborate on several initiatives, including dual listings, shared displays of indices, and fixed-income offerings. They aim to facilitate investor access to the secondary markets in both nations. Additionally, the exchanges plan to host joint roadshows, seminars, and training sessions to bolster their capital markets, improve trading opportunities for listed companies, and develop market regulations and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices.
WTO launches new interactive tool "World Trade Statistics 2023-Key insights and trends"
July 31, 2024--The WTO issued on 31 July "World Trade Statistics 2023", a new interactive tool presenting key data and trends for international merchandise and commercial services trade in 2023. The digital platform allows users to view the latest trends in world trade, in terms of both value and volume, using filters to display the data by economy, region, selected grouping, product group and services sector.
Among the interactive charts featured are "Growth in merchandise trade value and volume", the "Top 20 exporters in merchandise trade" and "Growth in commercial services". The charts illustrate the evolution of trade while tables in Excel format complement the graphics.
IMF-The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot-Global growth broadly unchanged amid persistent services inflation
July 23, 2024--Global growth is projected to be in line with the April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025.
Services inflation is holding up progress on disinflation, which is complicating monetary policy normalization.
Upside risks to inflation have thus increased, raising the prospect of higher for even longer interest rates, in the context of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty.
The policy mix should thus be sequenced carefully to achieve price stability and replenish diminished buffers.
ETFGI reports assets invested in the global ETFs industry reached a new record high of 13.14 trillion US Dollars at the end of June
July 17, 2024--ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm covering trends in the global ETFs ecosystem,reported today the global ETFs industry gathered US$136.17 billion in net inflows in June 2024, bringing year to date net inflows to a record US$730.36 billion, according to ETFGI's June 2024 global ETFs and ETPs industry landscape insights report, the monthly report which is part of an annual paid-for research subscription service. (All dollar values in USD unless otherwise noted)
Highlights
We expect 2024 to be a record year for net inflows and for assets invested in the global ETFs industry
Assets invested in the global ETFs industry reached a new record of $13.14 Tn at the end of June beating the previous record of $12.89 Tn at the end of May 2024.
Assets have increased 12.9% YTD in 2024, going from $11.63 Tn at end of 2023 to $13.14 Tn.
Net inflows of $136.17 Bn during June.
YTD net inflows of $730.36 Bn is the highest on record, while the second highest recorded YTD net inflows was of $658.86 Bn in 2021 and the third highest recorded YTD net inflows of 462.53 Bn in 2022.
61st month of consecutive net inflows.
Tide Capital: Is the Market Bottoming Out After July's Plunge?
Market Sell-off Subsiding, Bottom Formation Underway
German Government Sell-off Pressure Absorbed
The Saxony police confiscated nearly 50,000 Bitcoins in January and gradually began selling them from mid-June, totaling over $3 billion, triggering market declines. Currently, all these Bitcoins have been transferred to exchanges, mitigating future sell-off impacts. BlockScholes X Bybit Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report Reveals Investors More Bullish on ETH Than BTC
July 15, 2024--Abstract
The German government has transferred all seized Bitcoins to exchanges, with the sell-off largely absorbed. Concurrently, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw significant net inflows in July, indicating U.S. investors are buying the dip. The Nasdaq continues to hit new highs, favoring risk assets. We believe BTC will rebound once market sentiment stabilizes.
Altcoins have undergone significant corrections, helping deflate market bubbles and fostering healthier conditions for the crypto market. Market concentration is increasing, suggesting holding BTC and ETH may continue to outperform.
July 15, 2024--Bybit, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, in partnership with BlockScholes, has released its latest < a href="https://learn.bybit.com/crypto-insights/crypto-derivatives-analytics-report-july-15/" TARGET="_blank">Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report
The report, analyzing market trends and trading signals across spot trading volume, futures, options, and perpetual contracts, underscores a growing bullish sentiment toward ETH. Key findings indicate that investors are increasingly optimistic about ETH, particularly in anticipation of the imminent launch of the first Ether Spot ETFs in the United States. This optimism is reflected in ETH's sustained volatility premium over BTC, which has persisted amid heightened market activity.
The Bank for International Settlements warned on Sunday that rising government debt levels amid a number of major elections this year could roil global financial markets
June 30, 2024--Dubbed the central bankers' central bank, the BIS said the world economy was on course for the "smooth landing" that many economists doubted when interest rates shot up, but said policymakers, especially politicians, needed to be careful.
Global government debt is already at record levels and elections ranging from the U.S. presidential vote in November, through recent polls in Mexico and South Africa, to votes in France and Britain in the coming week, all carry risks.
BIS Annual Economic Report 2024
June 30, 2024--Introduction
So far, so good. The world economy appears to be finally leaving behind the legacy of the Covid-19 pandemic and the commodity price shock of the war in Ukraine. The worst fears did not materialise. On balance, globally, inflation is continuing to decline towards targets, economic activity and the financial system have proved remarkably resilient, and both professional forecasters and financial market participants see a smooth landing ahead.
This was by no means a given a year ago. It is a great outcome.
Still, there is a "but". Challenges remain. The recent stickiness of inflation in some key jurisdictions reminds us that central banks' job is not yet done. Financial vulnerabilities have not gone away. Fragile fiscal positions cast a shadow as far as the eye can see. Subdued productivity growth clouds economic prospects. Beyond the near term, laying a more solid foundation for the future is as difficult as ever. It could not be otherwise: it is an arduous task that requires a long-term view, courage and perseverance.
G20 GDP growth picks up a little in the first quarter of 2024
June 12, 2024--Gross domestic product (GDP) in the G20 area grew by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2024 according to provisional estimates, slightly up from 0.7% in the previous quarter.
The economic performance of the G20 area was mainly driven by China and India in Q1 2024.[1] Both countries, along with Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Korea and Indonesia recorded higher GDP growth than the G20 as a whole.
Turkiye saw the highest growth at 2.4%, followed by India (1.9%), China (1.6%), Saudi Arabia (1.4%), Korea (1.3%) and Indonesia (1.2%). Growth recovered in Saudi Arabia following a contraction of 0.6% in Q4 2023. The GDP growth rate increased in China, Korea and Turkiye in Q1 compared with Q4, but fell slightly in India and Indonesia.
The remaining G20 countries experienced weaker growth than the G20 as a whole in Q1 2024. The United States saw a slowdown, with GDP growth dropping to 0.3% in Q1 from 0.8% in Q4 2023. The economy of Japan contracted by 0.5% in Q1, while South Africa experienced a contraction of 0.1%. On the other hand, Brazil, the United Kingdom and Germany recovered in Q1 after contractions in Q4, with growth reaching 0.8%, 0.6% and 0.2% respectively. Canada, Mexico and the European Union grew by 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.3% respectively in Q1 after zero growth in Q4.