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GDP growth overestimated during 2011-12 and 2016-17: Arvind Subramanian
June 11, 2019--Instead of the reported growth of 7%, actual growth was likely between 3.5% and 5.5%, says Subramanian
Arvind Subramanian has just stirred the proverbial hornet's nest. In his latest research paper, the former chief economic advisor said India's GDP growth between 2011-12 and 2016-17 was probably bumped up by about 2.5 per cent.
Instead of the reported growth of 6.9% between 2011 and 2016, actual growth was more likely to have been between 3.5% and 5.5%, says Subramanian.
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Source: economictimes.indiatimes.com
Japan's Economy Set to Shrink in Second Quarter, Top Forecaster Says
June 10, 2019--Japan's economy is set to contract in the current quarter following growth that was better than first estimated in the first three months of the year, according to one of the country's top economic forecasters.
Gross domestic product is likely to shrink by 0.5% in the second quarter, Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research, said in a note, adding that the economy was currently in poor shape despite the expansion at the start of the year.
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Source: Bloomberg
Bassanese Bites: Bad news is good news
June 10, 2019--Global Round Up
Global equities rebounded strongly last week, reflecting ongoing hopes of a US interest rate cut and signs that US trade tensions with Mexico at least would soon be resolved. And sure enough, Trump suspended planned tariffs on Mexico overnight following an apparent agreement to tackle illegal immigration. Sadly, the situation with Trump's bigger sparring partner, China, remains unresolved.
Trump yesterday threatened new tariffs if a deal with China could not be worked out at the June 28-29 G-20 meeting, though as yet President Xi Jinping hasn't even confirmed if he’ll bother to attend.
But fear not-the big story right now is not the trade war, but the Fed's likely reaction to it-with even Fed chair Powell recently hinting he's open to an interest rate cut if need be. In a classic case of "bad news is good news"' Friday's weaker than expected employment report saw stocks lift on heightened rate cut hopes.
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Source: BetaShares
ASX-Investment Products Monthly Update-May 2019
June 10, 2019--ASX Investment Products Monthly Update - May 2019
June 10, 2019--Over the month of May 2019, total Assets Under Management of Investment Products increased from $307.05bn to $314.77bn (up 2.5%).
The month of April 2019 saw growth in Assets Under Management for ETPs (up 1.5%), mFunds (up 0.7%), LICs & LITs (up 1.3%), AREITs (up 3.5%) and Infrastructure Funds (up 2.1%).
In the month of May 2019, ASX welcomed 3 new Investment Products:
AREIT (Australian Real Estate Investment Trust).
Investec Australia Property Fund (ASX: IAP) admitted on 28 May 2019
ETMF (Exchange Traded Managed Funds)
eInvest Future Impact Small Caps Fund (Managed Fund) (ASX: IMPQ) admitted on 23 May 2019
LICs/LITs (Listed Investment Companies/Listed Investment Trusts)
Perpetual Credit Income Trust (ASX: PCI) admitted on 14 May 20.
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Source: ASX
Wall Street Firms Pushing Into China Will Face Bigger Rivals
June 10, 2019--Almost a quarter of local brokerages lost money in 2018
Government has been allowing majority stakes by foreign firms
As Wall Street firms start taking control of their operations in China, they may find the competitive landscape facing them shifting significantly over the next few years.
The financial-market internationalization that opened the door for companies from JPMorgan Chase & Co. to UBS Group AG to become majority owners of local securities joint ventures has also set the stage for a more ominous change: a state-encouraged wave of consolidation among China’s 131 securities firms, which between them earned slightly less than Goldman Sachs Group Inc. last year.
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Source: Bloomberg
With the Right Policies and Investment, Southeast Asia can Take its Digital Economy to the Next Level
June 6, 2019--While the digital revolution has already brought many benefits to Southeast Asia, the region has a unique opportunity to achieve even faster progress by reinforcing the foundations of its growing digital economy. To realize this vision, a new World Bank report, The Digital Economy in Southeast Asia-Strengthening the Foundations for Future Growth, analyzes the opportunities and challenges facing the region to scale up digital development, and for ensuring the economic and social dividends of technology can reach everyone.
"Every sector of the economy in ASEAN countries can do more to use digital technologies and smarter business models. To help our private sectors governments also need to transform themselves: to use technologies such as data analytics and intelligent systems, develop our digital platforms and harmonize our approaches to regulatory procedures particular for cybersecurity, digital identity, and data management."
view the World Bank The Digital Economy in Southeast Asia Strengthening the Foundations for Future Growth report
Source: World Bank
Investors face $647bn China banking blind spot
June 5, 2019--Delays by rural and city banks in reporting results signal potential bad-debt build-up
A $647bn blind spot in financial reporting by China's city and rural commercial banks is fuelling investor concerns that more of the country's lenders face government intervention or collapse in the wake of the state takeover of Baoshang Bank.
Baoshang was one of 19 banks with a combined Rmb4.47tn ($647bn) in assets that have yet to publish 2018 financial results, according to a list compiled by Barclays.
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Source: FT.com
IMF Staff Completes 2019 Article IV Mission to China
June 5, 2019--China's economic growth stabilized in early 2019 and is expected to moderate to 6.2 percent and 6.0 percent in 2019 and 2020, respectively.
Uncertainty around trade tensions remains high and risks are tilted to the downside.
China and its international partners should work constructively to address shortcomings in the trading system and enable a system that can more readily adapt to economic changes in the international environment. China can play an important role and would benefit from further opening up and other structural reforms that enhance competition.
Progress on structural reforms has led to a further opening up of the economy and a greater role for market forces. To boost productivity and promote longer-term growth, further efforts are needed to reform state-owned enterprises (SOEs), open up the service sector, and modernize policy frameworks.
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Source: IMF
BetaShares-Market Trends: June 2019
June 5, 2019--Key Market Trends
A resumption of US-China trade tensions saw global equities pull back in May, with the MSCI All-Country World Index declining by 5.7% in local currency terms. As seen in the chart below, this continues the broadly choppy performance of equity markets since early 2018, reflecting the interaction of slowing global growth and trade fears, yet subdued inflation and an increasingly benign interest rate environment.
Indeed, bond yields continued to trend lower in May, while the "safe-haven" $US remained firm. Commodity price performance also remained choppy, with May's risk-off sentiment helping gold prices, but not oil prices.
Asset Class Performance-Aussie equities withstand global sell-off
In unhedged Australian dollar terms, global equities declined by a somewhat smaller 4.2% in May, reflecting strength in global currencies versus the Australian dollar. Contrary to the global sell-off, however, Australian equities produced a feisty 1.7% gain, which was similar to the gains by "safer-haven" asset classes like Australian bonds and gold.
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Source: BetaShares
The 'seven' ceiling: China's yuan in trade talks
June 3, 2019--Investors and the public have been looking at the renminbi with caution after the Trump administration threatened to increase duties on countries that intervene in the markets to devalue/undervalue their currency relative to the dollar. The fear is that China could weaponise its currency following the further increase in tariffs imposed by the United States in early May.
What is the likelihood of this happening and what would be the consequences for the existing tensions with the United States, as well as for the global economy?
The renminbi has been depreciating since June and is currently hovering around 7 yuan per US dollar. The current value, the lowest since December last year, raised some eyebrows as it could signal currency manipulation.
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Source: bruegel.org