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Reading tea leaves from China's two sessions: Large monetary and fiscal stimulus and still no growth guarantee
May 25, 2020--The announcement of a large stimulus without a growth target indicates that China's recovery is far from complete.
It was hard to think of a more important gathering than last week's 'Two Sessions', during which Chinese political leaders were to guide all of us as to the way ahead for the Chinese economy. While this yearly event is always important, this year's was crucial.
2020 marks the end of two key cycles of economic planning: the current Five-Year Plan, and the end of the 10-year period during which the country aimed at doubling its income, which is the operational target to measure President's Xi Great Rejuvenation plan. Expectations were running all the higher that the Chinese economy is reeling from unprecedented levels of uncertainties due to coronavirus epidemic-including delaying the event itself-compounded by the fact that China had shown a rather hesitant approach to stimulus since January.
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Source: bruegel.org
Fidelity International applies to set up China mutual fund unit
May 19, 2020--Fidelity International, the U.S. asset management giant, said on Tuesday it has applied to set up a wholly owned mutual fund unit in China, taking a major step toward tapping the country's retail fund market.
Fidelity submitted the application to China's securities regulator after Beijing scrapped foreign ownership caps in the mutual fund sector on April 1.
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Source: Reuters
Australian companies head to stock market in biggest rush .
May 3, 2020--Australian companies head to stock market in biggest rush since '09.
Companies lean heavily on equity in effort to dent blow from coronavirus.
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Source: FT.com
BetaShares-Look out below: U.S. and Australian earnings update
April 29, 2020--Along with global markets, Australian equities have enjoyed a rebound in recent weeks even as the earnings outlook has deteriorated. This note provides an outlook on both U.S. and local earnings and market valuations, and attempts to gauge the extent to which the 'bad news' is already priced in.
A mighty market rebound
As seen in the table below, equity markets have enjoyed a solid rebound following the heavy decline over February to late March. After a peak-to-trough decline of 34%, the S&P 500 has since rebounded by almost 30%-leaving a net decline since the peak of around 15%. In this time, however, forward earnings estimates have declined by almost 20%, meaning the market's price-to-forward earnings ratio (PE ratio) has in fact edged higher to around 20. At the recent market low, the S&P was trading at a PE ratio of 13.8.
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Source: BetsShares
Franklin Templeton winds up $3bn of India funds after market turmoil
April 24, 2020--Franklin Templeton winds up $3bn of India funds after market turmoil.
US investment group halts withdrawals in move that could rock asset..view more
Source: FT.com
A Post-Coronavirus Recovery in Asia—Extending a "Whatever it Takes" Lifeline to Small Businesses
April 23, 2020--Asia was hit hard by the first wave of the coronavirus, as the sudden stop in activity struck households and firms simultaneously-first in China, then elsewhere in Asia, and now globally. Policymakers responded swiftly with aggressive spending to support the medical response and vulnerable households and firms. And central banks took swift actions to expand liquidity.
While this helped support financial markets and sentiment, we may be on the cusp of a new, more dangerous phase of "economic deleveraging" as firms struggle to repay loans and pay workers in the face of a sudden collapse in cashflow and tighter credit.
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Source: IMF
China suffers historic economic slump with hard recovery ahead
April 17, 2020--The coronavirus pushed China's economy into its first contraction in decades in the first quarter, with the spread of the disease around the world now leaving the nation reliant on fragile domestic demand to spur a recovery.
Gross domestic product shrank 6.8% from a year ago, the worst performance since at least 1992 when official releases of quarterly GDP started and missing the median forecast of a 6% drop. China’s economy hasn’t contracted on a full-year basis since the end of the Mao era in the 1970s.
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Source: bangkokpost.com
Depression, and not stagflation, could haunt China in 2020
April 17, 2020--This opinion piece was originally published in Asia Times and Medium
China's GDP in the first quarter of the year has surprised nobody but the devil is in the details. Local retail sales continued to fall in March (-16%), marginally better than during the peak of the Covid19 outbreak in January and February.
The continuation of the slump in domestic demand clearly stands out when compared with the return to production in March. In fact, industrial production hardly declined in March (1.1%) after a collapse in January-February. More importantly, the vanishing demand cannot be explained by external factors only. In fact, export growth in March was negative (-12.5%) but less than that domestic retail sales.
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Source: bruegel.org
BetaShares Australian ETF Review-March 2020
April 15, 2020--The Australian ETF industry suffered a second consecutive month of negative growth in March, as sharemarkets around the world were savaged by the COVID-19 crisis. However trading volumes exploded, with turnover hitting an all-time high of ˜$18B, shattering the previous monthly record of $7.2B.
Market cap
ASX Exchange Traded Product Market Cap: $57.2B
Market cap change for month: -10.6%, -$6.8B -biggest % monthly fall since the GFC, largest $value fall on record
Market cap growth for the last 12 months: 24%, + $11.1B
Comment: Industry FuM fell by $6.8B (-10.6% MoM decline) to end March at $57.2B. This represents the largest monthly FuM decline in dollar terms on record as well as the biggest % monthly fall since the global financial crisis
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Source: betashares.com.au
BlackRock. Neuberger Berman apply to set up China mutual fund unit-China securities regulator
April 1, 2020---BlackRock and Neuberger Berman have applied to set up mutual fund units in China, according to China's securities regulator.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has accepted applications from the two asset managers, according to CSRC's official website.
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Source: FT.com
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