ETFS Precious Metals Weekly- Gold Shows Resilience Supported by Strong Physical Demand
November 17, 2014--Gold is showing resilience as it trades close to the cost of production and physical buying
accelerates. Gold shrugged off new record high US equity prices, the strong US dollar and lower
crude oil prices last week.
Indicating strong physical demand, last week forward gold leasing rates (GOFO rates) dipped to the deepest negative level, for one and two months, since the beginning of the millennium (chart below). While gold futures short interest on the COMEX remained elevated, silver non-commercial shorts sustained near the greatest number of futures contracts ever at 47,000. For the month of November, gold is the only precious to show a gain (+0.4% London PM) despite approximately 1% respective gains in the S&P 500 and the US dollar index and the 5.6% decline in crude oil. The prospects for a rally in silver and gold are increasing. A stumble in the US equity market and/or economic growth expectations could be a catalyst.
Source: ETF Securities
IOSCO Consults on Post-Trade Transparency in the Credit Default Swaps Market
November 17, 2014--The International Organization of Securities Commissions today published the consultation report Post-Trade Transparency in the Credit Default Swaps Market, which seeks to analyze the potential impact of mandatory post-trade transparency in the credit default swaps (CDS) market.
The report's analysis is based on a review of relevant works of international standard-setting bodies and academic literature and an examination of publicly available transaction-level post-trade data about CDS transactions before and after the introduction of mandatory post-trade transparency in certain CDS markets in the United States. IOSCO also conducted a survey of market participants and other market observers regarding their use of certain publicly available post-trade data and its perceived impact on the market.
view the IOSCO consultation report-Post-Trade Transparency in the Credit Default Swaps Market
Source: IOSCO
Deutsche Borse to disseminate sovereign bond indices for Africa's most developed economies
Concerto African Bond Indices deliver transparency and objectivity to expanding local currency bond markets
November 17, 2014--Deutsche Börse Market Data + Services today announced that it will begin disseminating fixed income indices and bond pricing data from African countries starting on 24 November 2014.
Concerto African Bond Indices are the first independent index family to measure pan-African local currency sovereign bond performance. The indices are calculated and maintained by Germany-based Concerto Financial Solutions.
Source: Deutsche Börse
Shanghai Stock Buying Through Exchange Link Reaches Limit
November 17, 2014--Investors piled into Shanghai shares on the first day of exchange-link trading, buying the maximum amount allowed in a sign of global demand for mainland equities as China opens up its $4.2 trillion market.
International investors purchased 13 billion yuan ($2.1 billion) of Shanghai shares by 1:57 p.m., triggering a halt in buy orders for the rest of the day.
Source: Bloomberg
Pension funds to flock to riskier investments
November 17, 2014--Pension fund managers around the world are preparing to invest in riskier assets such as hedge funds and private equity funds as they seek higher returns and their ability to select the best managers improves.
Research by State Street, the US financial group, has found that 77 per cent of pension funds expect their appetite for alternative investments to increase over the next three years.
Source: FT.com
How to Invest in Russia
November 14, 2014--According to the latest numbers in the Financial Times, the Russian economy eked out a small positive growth of 0.7% during the months of June through September. That was more than double the projected growth of 0.3% by a consensus of economists.
The Ruble has plummeted since the downing of Malaysian Airways flight MH17 in July this year,and YTD has dropped nearly 47% against the US Dollar. In order to stem the decline of the Ruble,the Russian Central Bank decided to allow the currency to float freely against other currencies; however,the long term effectiveness of this policy is unclear.
Source: Peter Kohli, blog Nasdaq.com
Bank of China authorised as trading and clearing participant at Deutsche Borse
November 14, 2014--The Bank of China today received authorisation via its Frankfurt branch office as a trading and clearing participant on the Deutsche Börse Group cash market.
This will provide Chinese issuers and Asian investors with direct access to the German and European capital markets. The Bank of China Frankfurt Branch is the first Chinese clearing participant at Deutsche Börse based in the euro area.
Source: Deutsche Börse
SPDR Weekly Market Report -November 14, 2014
November 14, 2014--ECONOMIES: The quit rate posts a healthy rise in the US. Housing starts fall in Canada. The labor market continues to tighten in the UK.
GDP rises modestly in the Eurozone. Consumer confidence erodes again in Japan. Wage inflation remains low in Australia.
MARKETS: Equities and bonds remain mixed. Sterling and Yen are sharply lower. Oil continues to fall.
NEXT WEEK PREVIEWED
SPOTLIGHT: The Bank of Japan should make no further changes to policy at this time. Industrial production and housing starts are expected to rise moderately in the US. Inflation likely slows in the US and UK. GDP is expected to rise in Japan.
THE WEEK IN REVIEW
US
The JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER report remains encouraging. Admittedly, the number of job openings
(vacancies) slipped 118,000 to 4,735,000 in September. However, this is the second highest level so far in this recovery, and this measure of labor demand remains on a distinct and strong rising trend, which is highlighted by the robust 19.9% rise in September from a year earlier...
visit www.spdru.com to view report
Source: SSgA
IMF Working paper-Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead?
November 14, 2014--Summary: Following very strong growth during the period 2000-12, emerging market economies (EMEs) experienced a slowdown in the last couple of years. This paper examines the supply-side drivers of the strong growth performance of 63 EMEs and investigates if the recent slowdown in growth is transitory or a more permanent phenomenon.
We find that on average the recent slowdown is explained equally by structural and cyclical factors, although there are large variations across countries and regions. While the cyclical component of the slowdown can be corrected by countercyclical policies (provided that there is sufficient policy space), structural bottlenecks are harder to address. Given the expected moderation of capital accumulation and some natural constraints on labor, the strong growth momentum of 2000-12 is unlikely to be repeated going forward, unless TFP performance improves significantly via structural reforms.
view the IMF Working paper-Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead?
Source: IMF
DECPG Weekly Economic Brief-November 14, 2014
November 14, 2014--Oil prices dropped almost 20 percent between June and October 2014, and weakened to $78/bbl in mid-November, for the first time
since the 2008/09 financial crisis. The U.S. dollar appreciation, strong oil supplies and weak demand due to growth slowdown, diminished geopolitical risks, and OPEC's inaction contributed to the price weakness. A sustained decline in oil prices could result
from a greater-than-expected expansion in oil production in the U.S. and a sharper-than-expected deceleration in global oil demand.
Numerous factors contributed to the oil price weakness. These included the strengthening of the U.S. dollar against major currencies, weakening growth prospects in emerging economies (where most growth in oil demand takes place), anemic growth outlook in the euro area, and strong supplies by the U.S. and some OPEC member countries, including Libya and Iraq despite rebel insurgencies in the latter. The U.S. added more than 3 mb/d to global crude oil supplies in the past four years as new technologies-hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling-are enabling numerous small energy companies to extract quantities of crude oil from tight rock formations. OPEC's inaction may have also played a role in the price decline.
Source: World Bank