IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties-October 2014
October 7, 2014--Despite setbacks, an uneven global recovery continues. Largely due to weaker-than-expected global activity in the first half of 2014, the growth forecast for the world economy has been revised downward to 3.3 percent for this year, 0.4 percentage point lower than in the April 2014 World Economic Outlook (WEO). The global growth projection for 2015 was lowered to 3.8 percent.
Downside risks have increased since the spring. Shortterm risks include a worsening of geopolitical tensions and a reversal of recent risk spread and volatility compression in financial markets. Medium-term risks include stagnation and low potential growth in advanced economies and a decline in potential growth in emerging markets.
Given these increased risks, raising actual and potential growth must remain a priority. In advanced economies, this will require continued support from monetary policy and fiscal adjustment attuned in pace and composition to supporting both the recovery and longterm growth. In a number of economies, an increase in public infrastructure investment can also provide support to demand in the short term and help boost potential output in the medium term. In emerging markets, the scope for macroeconomic policies to support growth if needed varies across countries and regions, but space is limited in countries with external vulnerabilities.
view the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties-October 2014
Source: IMF
WEF-Mainstreaming Impact Investing: A practical guide
September 16, 2014--Charting the Course: How Mainstream Investors can Design Visionary and Pragmatic Impact Investing Strategies, is the culmination of a year-long research effort with investors to demonstrate concrete strategies for how for-profit companies can create transformational positive social impact.
Impact investing-an investment approach which creates both financial returns and positive impact that is actively measured-is continuing to be a focus in high-level circles as seen through recent convenings hosted by the Pope, the White House and the G8, while at the same time receiving increased interest from the millennial generation which is set to inherit some USD $30 trillion over the coming decades.
Source: WEF (World Economic Forum)
BIS-Proposals to improve the operational risk capital frame work released by the Basel Committee
October 6, 2014--The Basel Committee has today released for consultation a revised standardised approach for measuring operational risk capital. The existing framework sets out different approaches that banks may use to calculate their operational risk capital requirement.
Once finalised, a new unitary standardised approach will replace the current non-model-based approaches, which comprise the Basic Indicator Approach (BIA) and the Standardised Approach (TSA), including its variant the Alternative Standardised Approach (ASA). In addition to streamlining the framework, the new approach will address weaknesses identified in the existing approaches.
view the Consultative Document-Operational risk-Revisions to the simpler approaches
Source: BIS
Nigeria: As U.S. Shuts Its Door On Nigeria's Oil Exports
October 3, 2014--Nigeria has become the first country to completely stop selling oil to the United States of America, the world's largest oil producer and consumer,
due to the impact of the shale revolution-an astounding reversal-as the country was only four years ago one of the top five oil suppliers to America.
According to the US Department of Energy, Nigeria did not export a single barrel of crude to US-based refiners in July for the first time since records started in 1973.view more
Source: allAfrica.com
IMF-Emerging Market Volatility: Lessons from The Taper Tantrum
October 3, 2014-- Summary: Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discussed its plans for tapering unconventional monetary policies, these emerging markets have experienced financial turbulence at the same that their domestic economic activity has slowed.
This paper examines their experiences and policy responses and draws broad policy lessons. For emerging markets, good macroeconomic fundamentals matter, and early and decisive measures to strengthen macroeconomic policies and reduce vulnerabilities help dampen market reactions to external shocks. For advanced economies, clear and effective communication about the exit from unconventional monetary policy can and did help later to reduce the risk of excessive market volatility. And for the global community, enhanced global cooperation, including a strong global financial safety net, offers emerging markets effective protection against excessive volatility.
view theIMF-Emerging Market Volatility: Lessons from The Taper Tantrum paper
Source: IMF
IOSCO Launches Second Securities Markets Risk Outlook
October 1. 2014--The International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) today published the IOSCO Securities Markets Risk Outlook 2014-2015. The Outlook is a forward-looking report focusing on identifying potential risks in securities markets.
The Outlook has been prepared during a transformative period for global financial markets. As the initial impact of the 2008 financial crisis recedes, securities markets are an increasingly important financing channel for the economy. At the same time, innovation is re-entering the markets, while accommodative monetary policies continue to bolster securities markets. Consequently, the identification and analysis of the build-up of systemic risk in securities markets is of growing significance.
view the IOSCO Securities Markets-Risk Outlook-2014-15
Source: IOSCO
Risk Taking, Liquidity, and Shadow Banking: Curbing Excess While Promoting Growth
October 1, 2014--The October 2014 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) finds that six years after the start of the crisis, the global economic recovery continues to rely heavily on accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies.
Monetary accommodation remains critical in supporting the economy by encouraging economic risk taking in the form of increased real spending by households and greater willingness to invest and hire by businesses.
Source: IMF
IMF Survey-Shadow Banking Is Boon, Bane for Financial System
October 1, 2014--Shadow banking differs between countries,shares same underlying drivers
Shadow banking contributes substantially to financial risks in United States,much less in Europe
Regulators should work together to avoid risks migrating
Shadow banking is both a boon and a bane for countries,and to reap its benefits,policymakers should minimize the risks it poses to the overall financial system.
Shadow banks act similarly to regular banks by taking money from investors and lending it to borrowers,but are not governed by the same rules or supervised. Shadow banks can include financial institutions such as money market mutual funds,hedge funds,finance companies,and broker/dealers,among others.
view the SHADOW BANKING AROUND THE GLOBE: HOW LARGE, AND HOW RISKY? report
Source: IMF
Emirates REIT to join FTSE Global Emerging Markets Index
October 1, 2014--Emirates REIT said on Wednesday it has been selected to join the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Emerging Markets Index, becoming the fourth UAE company to join the index.
"Inclusion in the index will further support the development of the stock as investors buy the index constituents to build and run a rage of investment products," said Magali Mouquet, executive director of Emirates REIT Management.
Source: Zawya
World Economic Outlook (WEO), October 2014: Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties- Analytical Chapters
September 30, 2014---Chapter 3: Is It Time for an Infrastructure Push? The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment
This chapter finds that increased public infrastructure investment raises output in both the short and long term, particularly during periods of economic slack and when investment efficiency is high.
This suggests that in countries with infrastructure needs, the time is right for an infrastructure push: borrowing costs are low and demand is weak in advanced economies, and there are infrastructure bottlenecks in many emerging market and developing economies. Debt-financed projects could have large output effects without increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio, if clearly identified infrastructure needs are met through efficient investment.
Source: IMF