World Economic Outlook (WEO), October 2014: Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties- Analytical Chapters
September 30, 2014---Chapter 3: Is It Time for an Infrastructure Push? The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment
This chapter finds that increased public infrastructure investment raises output in both the short and long term, particularly during periods of economic slack and when investment efficiency is high.
This suggests that in countries with infrastructure needs, the time is right for an infrastructure push: borrowing costs are low and demand is weak in advanced economies, and there are infrastructure bottlenecks in many emerging market and developing economies. Debt-financed projects could have large output effects without increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio, if clearly identified infrastructure needs are met through efficient investment.
Source: IMF
What Does Carbon Pricing Success Look Like? Ask These Leaders
September 18, 2014--STORY HIGHLIGHTS
British Columbia, Sweden, California and China have been pioneering carbon pricing systems to lower emissions and help shift their economies onto cleaner, greener trajectories.
Currently, nearly 40 countries and more than 20 cities, states, and provinces use a form of carbon pricing or are planning to implement it. That number is growing as more governments explore the benefits of carbon pricing for climate and economy.
Vancouver is thriving. Across the coastal Canadian city, jobs are being created, fueled by a cleaner, greener economy. Low-carbon development projects are underway, and there is a shift toward neighborhood energy strategies that cut greenhouse gas emissions and make the energy supply more resilient to storms and overloads.
This didn’t happen by accident. Six year ago, the province of British Columbia took a bold step by establishing one of the continent’s first carbon taxes. Vancouver was already ahead on environmental standards, but the tax flipped a switch, clearly incentivizing resource efficiency and spurring greater innovation in energy, industry, and policy.
Source: World Bank
IMF Working paper-Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets--An Empirical Investigation
September 17, 2014--Summary: Output growth has slowed in several emerging markets since 2011-a remarkable feature for a non-crisis period in EMs. Such synchronized slowdowns were largely unanticipated by scholars and forecasters alike.
In this paper we attempt to shed light on the main drivers of growth surprises and synchronized slowdowns in emerging markets post-global financial crisis. We find that lower trading partner demand was a key external factor in explaining these events during 2011-13, and that changes in external financing conditions have yet to play a role in EMs’ growth. On the domestic front,the withdrawal of the fiscal stimulus put in place right after the Lehman collapse is a relevant aspect in these episodes,compounding the effect of the weaker external demand. Idiosyncratic factors,such as structural bottlenecks with the potential to impair growth in a more lasting fashion,also seem to partly explain these events,as reflected in the larger residuals found in regression-based estimates for certain countries.
Source: IMF
IMF Working paper-How Much Carbon Pricing is in Countries'Own Interests? The Critical Role of Co-Benefits
September 17, 2014--Summary: This paper calculates, for the top twenty emitting countries, how much pricing of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is in their own national interests due to domestic co-benefits (leaving aside the global climate benefits). On average, nationally efficient prices are substantial, $57.5 per ton of CO2 (for year 2010), reflecting primarily health co-benefits from reduced air pollution at coal plants and, in some cases, reductions in automobile externalities (net of fuel taxes/subsidies).
Pricing co-benefits reduces CO2 emissions from the top twenty emitters by 13.5 percent (a 10.8 percent reduction in global emissions). However, co-benefits vary dramatically across countries (e.g., with population exposure to pollution) and differentiated pricing of CO2 emissions therefore yields higher net benefits (by 23 percent) than uniform pricing. Importantly, the efficiency case for pricing carbon’s co-benefits hinges critically on (i) weak prospects for internalizing other externalities through other pricing instruments and (ii) productive use of carbon pricing revenues.
Source: IMF
IMF Working paper-A Quality of Growth Index for Developing Countries: A Proposal
September 17, 2014--Summary: This paper proposes a new quality of growth index (QGI) for developing countries. The index encompasses both the intrinsic nature and social dimensions of growth, and is computed for over 90 countries for the period 1990-2011. The approach is premised on the fact that not all growth is created equal in terms of social outcomes, and that it does matter how one reaches from one level of income to another for various theoretical and empirical reasons.
The paper finds that the quality of growth has been improving in the vast majority of developing countries over the past two decades, although the rate of convergence is relatively slow. At the same time, there are considerable cross-country variations across income levels and regions. Finally, emprirical investigations point to the fact that main factors of the quality of growth are political stability, public pro-poor spending, macroeconomic stability, financial development, institutional quality and external factors such as FDI.
view IMF Working paper-A Quality of Growth Index for Developing Countries: A Proposal>
Source: IMF
IFC Becomes Largest Issuer of London-Listed Renminbi Bonds, Supporting Internationalization of Chinese Currency
The five-year issuance marks the second time IFC has issued a benchmark-sized renminbi bond this year. The bond is also the longest-dated renminbi bond by a triple-A rated issuer on the exchange. In all, IFC has issued about 4.25 billion yuan in renminbi-denominated bonds in London.
Source: World Bank
How much does pollution cost?
Nevertheless, scientists, governments, international institutions and non--governmental organizations are analyzing formulas (some of which already exist) to "charge for polluting," or "put a price on carbon." In other words, those who pollute the most must provide monetary compensation for the harm they do to the environment. The idea is to limit and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which are responsible for global warming and climate change.
If emissions continue at the current pace, the average global temperatures will rise and seriously impact the environment, with more severe and frequent climate events affecting agriculture, among others.
Source: World Bank
IMF's 2014 Financial Access Survey Helps to Map Global Financial Inclusion
The FAS provides geographic and demographic data worldwide,offering a strong quantitative underpinning to the theoretical literature linking financial inclusion and economic growth. The positive correlation between the increase in the use of commercial banks services (a measure of financial inclusion) and the increase in GDP per capita (a measure of economic growth) is especially noteworthy when comparing financial inclusion trends. Among African countries reporting data on commercial bank depositors,for instance,depositors per 1,000 adults experienced a five-fold increase from 2004 to 2013,while simultaneously achieving a 40-percent growth in real GDP per capita.
Source: IMF
September 2014 Quarterly Review: Volatility stirs, markets unshaken
International banking activity stopped contracting in the first quarter of 2014, when BIS reporting banks lifted their cross-border claims by $580 billion, the first significant uptick since 2011.
Corporate borrowers from emerging markets have lengthened their debt maturities. This reduces their rollover risk but also makes bond prices more sensitive to yield changes, thus shifting risks from borrowers to bondholders.
Global asset managers hold a significant share of emerging market stocks and bonds. Ken Miyajima and Ilhyock Shim (BIS) point to features of the asset management industry that could force funds to sell if prices fall, thus destabilising markets. view more view the BIS Quarterly Review, September 2014
Source: BIS
UK government to issue the world's first non-Chinese sovereign offshore renminbi bond.
The government is taking these steps in recognition of the increasingly prominent role that renminbi is playing in the global economy and financial markets, including as a potential future reserve currency. The bond is intended to be a one-off issuance, with the benefit of contributing liquidity to the small but fast-growing renminbi offshore market and attracting other market players in both the private and official sectors.
Source: HM Treasury
September 17, 2014--IFC, a member of the World Bank Group, today became the largest issuer of renminbi-denominated bonds on the London Stock Exchange, issuing bonds totaling 1 billion yuan (equivalent to about $163 million) to increase foreign investment in China and support the internationalization of the Chinese currency.
September 17, 2014--How much do the emissions coming from your car's exhaust pipe cost in terms of damage to the environment? What about the gases that factories emit? Smog can be seen-and felt-in places like Beijing and Mexico City, in other words, it is tangible. But it is difficult to measure and calculate in monetary terms the damage done to the planet, nature and people by greenhouse gases.
September 16, 2014--The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released today the results of the fifth annual Financial Access Survey (FAS),the most comprehensive global source of data on access to,and use of,basic consumer financial services by households and nonfinancial corporations. For the first time,the survey includes data on mobile money indicators. The 2014 FAS round was again conducted with financial support from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of The Netherlands,while the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation provided funding to capture data on the use of mobile money services.
September 14, 2014--Volatility has settled back to exceptional lows after spiking briefly in early August. Risk premia remain compressed, as worries over geopolitical tensions had only a brief impact on financial markets against the backdrop of unusually accommodative monetary conditions.
September 12, 2014--The government announced today (12 September), as part of the conclusion of the Economic and Financial Dialogue (EFD) with China, that it intends to issue the world's first non-Chinese sovereign offshore renminbi bond and the proceeds will be used to finance the UK government's reserves of foreign currency.
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