DECPG Weekly Economic Brief--Nov. 7, 2014
November 7, 2014--Euro Area economic indicators have deteriorated in recent months. and the possibility of secular stagnation may be increasing. Weak
growth prospects are particularly unwelcome in an environment of very low inflation and unfavorable demographics. Given strong trade and financial linkages, low growth in the Euro Area could have negative effects on both high-income and developing economies.
Euro Area economic indicators have steadily weakened in recent months, increasing concerns that the bloc may be on a path of secular stagnation. Secular stagnation-the manifestation of low or no real economic growth following a period of declining investment and saving rates-represents a significant risk in the medium term. The European Union now expects GDP growth of 0.8 percent in the Euro Area in 2014 and 1.1 percent in 2015, sharply down from 1.2 and 1.7 percent, respectively, in the May forecast. Confidence indicators have dropped. Inflation is undesirably low in both core and periphery Euro Area countries and is likely to remain so in the near term, raising the risk of outright deflation.
Unemployment has been stubbornly high in recent years and is forecast to drop only marginally, from 11.6 percent in 2014 to 11.3 percent in 2015. The Euro Area is also increasingly challenged by its demographic profile-in particular, its high and rising old-age dependency ratio. Demographics are critical in most assessments of the presence of secular stagnation, as they are a major driver of long-term trends in saving and investment.
Source: World Bank
OTC Derivatives Regulators Issue Report to the G20 Leaders
November 7, 2014--The Over-the-Counter (OTC) Derivatives Regulators Group (ODRG) issued a report today that provides an update to the G20 Leaders regarding the ODRG's continuing effort to identify and resolve cross-border issues associated with the implementation of the G20 OTC derivatives reform agenda.
The ODRG is made up of authorities with responsibility for the regulation of OTC derivatives markets in Australia, Brazil, the European Union, Hong Kong, Japan, Ontario, Quebec, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United States.
Source: CFTC.gov
Unscheduled free float adjustment in MDAX
Novemebr 7, 2014--Deutsche Börse AG has announced an unscheduled adjustment to the free float of Sky Deutschland AG in MDAX(R). Due to the takeover of Sky Deutschland AG by British Sky Broadcasting Group PLC, the free float of Sky Deutschland AG changed by more than 10 percentage points.
According to the rules in the Guide to the Equity Indices of Deutsche Börse, the company's free float will be decreased from the current 33.12 percent to 12.55 percent. The adjustment will become effective on Wednesday, Nov. 12,, 2014.
Source: Deutsche Börse
OPEC World Oil Outlook 2014
November 6, 2014--The OPEC World Oil Outlook (WOO) has been published annually since 2007. It presents
projections for the medium-term (to 2019) and long-term (this year extended
to 2040) for oil demand and supply. The main conclusions of the WOO 2014 are
that oil will continue to play a major part in satisfying world energy needs, as the
global economy more than doubles in size, population grows, prosperity expands
everywhere, and despite a strong reduction in energy intensity.
It also illustrates the growing significance of developing countries in the energy landscape and the progressive shift towards Asia as its gravity centre. Resources are amply sufficient to meet future oil needs. The WOO also emphasizes the many uncertainties associated with the global economy and non-OPEC supply.
Similar oil price assumptions to the WOO 2013: stable, around $100/b in real terms in the long-run.
The estimated cost of supplying the marginal barrel continues to be a major factor in developing expectations for oil prices in the medium-and long-term. Costs more than doubled over the years 2004-2008; downward pressures stemming from the lower demand that resulted from the recession were only temporary, and since the beginning of 2010, upstream capital costs have been rising again.
view the OPEC World Oil Outlook 2014
Source: OPEC
BlueStar Israel Equity Update-October 2014
November 5, 2014--With few exceptions, the Israeli Global companies that reported earnings in the last week of October, and as of this writing, so far this month, have exceeded market forecasts.
While not immune to global macroeconomic trends and equity market volatility and uncertainty, fundamentals of many Israeli Global companies remain strong and we expect fundamentals to drive shares prices higher...
Source: BlueStar Indexes
Bank of China targets US investors with Basel III bond
November 5, 2014--Bank of China is set to become the first mainland Chinese lender to sell US dollar bonds directly to US investors, as it begins marketing Basel III-compliant debt to global fund managers.
BoC's bond sale, from which it is planning to raise around $3bn, will meet regulatory requirements for US investors, known as "144a".
Source: FT.com
New Global Financial Disruptors Equity Index launches in advance of Lending Club's imminent IPO
November 3, 2014--Liberum and AltFi Data have launched the first equity index tracking the world's leading financial services' disruptors-the Index is called the Liberum AltFi Financial Disruptors Index (LAFDI).
"With the imminent blockbuster IPO of Lending Club,the leading Peer-to-peer lender ",says Rupert Taylor,CEO of AltFi Data,“we believe it is important that equity investors have access to an index that comprehensively tracks the world's leading financial services disruptors listed on the main exchanges of the developed world.
Source: AltFi.com
ETFS Precious Metals Weekly-US Dollar Strength Pressures Precious Metals
November 3, 2014-Gold hits sell stops below US$1,200/oz. The strengthening US dollar on the back of stronger than expected US Q3 GDP, the announcement by the FOMC of the culmination of QE in the US and surprise announcement of additional stimulus from the Bank of Japan
pressured precious metals last week.
Year-to-date, gold ended the week with a loss of 3.3%. Accentuating the increase in currency volatility, gold in Euro terms ended the week up 6.2% YTD while the US dollar index has gained 8.6% in 2014 (+9.4% since early May). Defensive assets suffer as cyclical equities regain vigour. Defensive assets like gold and closely correlated silver, suffered as US stock prices extended new highs. However, with the most precious metals trading below their all-in costs, further decline in price has to be limited without triggering a cut-back in production.
Source: ETF Securities
China Awards $4.9 Billion RQFII Quota to Qatar, Signs Swap Pact
November 3, 2014--China gave a 30 billion yuan ($4.9 billion) quota to Qatar under the Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor program, the first such award of access to its domestic capital markets for a Middle Eastern country.
China's central bank also signed a 35 billion yuan currency swap arrangement with Qatar, the People's Bank of China said in a statement yesterday. The three-year deal can be expanded on agreement by the two sides, it said.
Source: Bloomberg
2014 Legatum Prosperity Index(TM)
November 3, 2014--Now in its eighth year, the Legatum Prosperity Index(TM) is a unique and robust assessment of global wealth and wellbeing, which benchmarks 142 countries around the world in eight distinct sub-indices: Economy; Education; Entrepreneurship & Opportunity; Governance; Health; Personal Freedom; Safety & Security; and Social Capital.
The latest Legatum Prosperity Index(TM) reveals that Norway is the most prosperous country in the world, closely followed by Switzerland and New Zealand. Meanwhile, the least prosperous countries are predominantly found in sub-Saharan Africa, with the Central African Republic bottom of the rankings, followed by Chad and Congo (DR).
Other findings from the 2014 Index include:
New Zealand is the highest climber at 3rd on the Prosperity Index. The resurgence of the economy has seen it rise on the Economy sub-index, from 27th in 2012 to its highest ever rank-15th-in 2014. However, New Zealand's success is also driven by strong personal freedom and social capital. New Zealand is number one on the Personal Freedom sub-index.
view the 2014 Legatum Prosperity Index November 2014 report
Source: Legatum Institute