Stronger policy response needed to avoid risks to growth, especially in the euro area, says OECD in latest Economic Outlook
November 25, 2014--Modest global economic forecasts, continuing high unemployment, and downshifts in potential output should spur governments with a greater sense of urgency to fully employ monetary, fiscal and structural policy levers to support growth, notably in Europe, according to the Economic Outlook
The Economic Outlook draws attention to a global economy stuck in low gear, with growth in trade and investment under-performing historic averages and diverging demand patterns across countries and regions, both in advanced and emerging economies.
view the OECD Economic Outlook November 2014
Source: OECD
IMF Working paper-Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy
Summary: The ongoing demographic changes will bring about a substantial shift in the size and the age composition of the population, which will have significant impact on the global economy. Despite potentially grave consequences, demographic changes usually do not take center stage in many macroeconomic policy discussions or debates.
This paper illustrates how demographic variables move over time and analyzes how they influence macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation, savings and investment, and fiscal balances, from an empirical perspective. Based on empirical findings-particularly regarding inflation-we discuss their implications on macroeconomic policies, including monetary policy. We also highlight the need to consider the interactions between population dynamics and macroeconomic variables in macroeconomic policy decisions.
view the IMF Working paper-Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy
Source: IMF
ETFS Precious Metals Weekly- Silver is Just Plain Cheap
November 24, 2014--Silver leads precious metals recovery last week. Led by the 6.2% weekly gain in silver, precious metals showed resilience in the face of yet new record high US equity prices and
the strengthening US dollar.
Additional monetary stimulus from the PBOC helped to raise most boats. Gold ended the week above the much watched US$1,200/oz. level. The resilience of gold has been impressive: despite the S&P 500 up 11.5% year-to-date (YTD) and the US dollar index up 10.4% YTD, gold ended the week unchanged YTD. In Euro currency terms, gold ended the week with a gain near 9.7%. Gold forward rates (GOFO) remained negative out to six months, indicating an excess of physical demand. We maintain a positive outlook on all the precious metals, notably due to their favourable supply/demand trends and close proximity to their marginal costs of production.
Source: ETF Securities
Oil price fall challenges US shale boom
November 23, 2014--The US shale boom, which has challenged the rules of the global petroleum market, could soon face its own day of reckoning due to the supply glut it helped unleash.
The impact from the drop in US oil prices from more than $100 a barrel in June to about $75 a barrel has so far been limited. But a bigger decline would be bad for the industry, analysts say.
Sourec: FIN24
World Is Locked into ~1.5°C Warming & Risks Are Rising, New Climate Report Finds
November 23, 2014--The new "Turn Down the Heat" report explores the risks worsening climate change poses to lives and livelihoods across three regions: Latin America and the Caribbean, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and the Middle East and North Africa.
It finds that globally, warming of close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial times-up from 0.8°C today-is already locked into Earth’s atmospheric system by past and predicted greenhouse gas emissions.
Everyone will feel the impact, particularly the poor, as weather extremes become more commons and risks to food, water, and energy security increase.
view the World Bank report-Turn down the heat:confronting the new climate normal
view inforgraphic-What Climate Change Means for Latin America, Middle East & Central Asia
Source: World Bank
Jury still out on Deutsche's ETF reorganisation
November 23, 2014--Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management still has a "long way to go" before it is clear whether a recent overhaul of the division can be called a success, analysts say.
The integration of Deutsche Bank's asset and wealth management units was first announced in 2012 after a failed attempt to sell several of the bank’s asset management entities.
Source: FT.com
DECPG Weekly Economic Brief-
November 21, 2014--China's stock of credit has risen sharply in recent years, mainly reflecting public investment programs to support the economy afterthe global financial crisis.
With growth moderating, as part of policy efforts to rebalance the economy away from investment to consumption and to rein in credit excesses, risks of a disorderly unwinding of debt have emerged. Nevertheless, the likelihood of such risks appears low, not least due to the substantial capacity of the government to intervene in case of an adverse shock.
China's credit-to-GDP ratio reached 251 percent of GDP in mid-2014, up from 156 percent at the end of 2007. The amount of debt (covering government, household and corporate debt) is not unprecedented and mostly comprises domestically held corporate debt.
However, the pace of increase over the 2008-13 period is rivaled only by Ireland in runup to the global financial crisis. In addition, rising debt has been underpinned by credit-led public stimulus programs since 2007, which pushed the rate of investment to an extraordinary 45 percent of GDP in 2013.
Source: World Bank
Santander to launch investment platform
November 21, 2014--Santander UK aims to launch an investment platform next year,
which will include online guidance tools to help investors identify suitable funds without going to an adviser...
Source: FT.com
WEF-New report explores the future of direct investing
November 20, 2014--Report on Direct Investing by Institutional Investors: Implications for Investors and Policy-Makers assesses the trend towards institutional investors investing directly in private equity, infrastructure and real estate
Estimates that $700 billion is invested directly in illiquid assets by asset owners, projected to grow slightly ahead of overall institutional asset growth in the near to medium term.
Focus on motivations for and challenges related to direct investing as well as implications for asset owners, asset manager and policy-makers
The World Economic Forum today launched Direct Investing by Institutional Investors: Implications for Investors and Policy-Makers. In the report, it is estimated that about $700 billion is invested directly in illiquid assets based on estimates of total institutional assets under management and allocations to illiquid assets by sector, and then filtering for size of institutions, governance structures and motivation to invest directly.
Source: WEF (World Economic Forum)
Bitcoin Derivatives: Challenges & Opportunities
November 20, 2014--The bitcoin derivatives market is slowly developing. Lynn Strongin Dodds explores the challenges and opportunities institutional investors may encounter as this space evolves
November 20, 2014--Bitcoin may have generated a great deal of buzz recently but the bubble has been pricked with prices sliding 44% over September and
October to around $300 from last year’s $1,150 high, according to digital wallet provider coinbase.com. Threats of regulation among other reasons are spooking retail investors but ironically a tighter grip may entice the much sought after institutional crowd.
Source: DerivSource