Inflation Remains Risk Confronting Financial Markets
July 27, 2023--Central banks may keep interest rates higher for longer than currently priced; given investors' benign inflation outlook and growing expectations for a soft landing, this could increase financial stability risks and weigh on growth
Overall inflation has moderated meaningfully in recent months in the United States and euro area, as energy and food prices have fallen significantly. Year-on-year headline inflation is now around 3 percent in the United States and below 5.5 percent in the euro area.
However, core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, has declined more slowly. Services inflation has proven to be particularly sticky.
According to market pricing, investors expect headline inflation to continue to decline quite rapidly in coming quarters. However, some market participants still see upside risks to the inflation outlook, likely reflecting recent stickiness in core inflation. Indeed, pricing from inflation options-financial instruments that offer protection against inflation moving higher or lower than its current level-shows that such upside risk is particularly pronounced in Europe, where investors assign roughly similar odds to inflation returning to the European Central Bank's 2 percent target and inflation remaining around 4 percent. In the United States, investors appear to put high odds on inflation being above target at around 3 percent.
Hottest July ever signals 'era of global boiling has arrived' says UN chief
July 27, 2023--As wildfires raged across Southern Europe and North Africa, top UN climate scientists said on Thursday that it was "virtually certain" that July 2023 will be the warmest on record.
Echoing that warning in New York, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said that "short of a mini-Ice Age" in coming days, July 2023 would likely "shatter records across the board".
"Climate change is here. It is terrifying. And it is just the beginning," said the UN chief, warning that the consequences are as clear as they are tragic: "children swept away by monsoon rains, families running from the flames (and) workers collapsing in scorching heat."
'Remarkable and unprecedented'
Tweet URL In Geneva, scientists from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the European Commission's Copernicus Climate Change Service described conditions this month as "rather remarkable and unprecedented".
They said that new data showed that so far, July has seen the hottest three-week period ever recorded and the three hottest days on record.
IMF-World Economic Outlook Update-Near-Term Resilience, Persistent Challenges July 2023
July 25, 2023--The global recovery is slowing amid widening divergences among economic sectors and regions
Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024. While the forecast for 2023 is modestly higher than predicted in the April 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO), it remains weak by historical standards.
The rise in central bank policy rates to fight inflation continues to weigh on economic activity. Global headline inflation is expected to fall from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 6.8 percent in 2023 and 5.2 percent in 2024. Underlying (core) inflation is projected to decline more gradually, and forecasts for inflation in 2024 have been revised upward.
The recent resolution of the US debt ceiling standoff and, earlier this year, strong action by authorities to contain turbulence in US and Swiss banking reduced the immediate risks of financial sector turmoil.