DECPG Global Monthly-April 2017
April 27, 2017--Monthly Highlights
Global industrial production and goods trade growth continued to recover from pronounced weakness in the first half of 2016.
Consumer spending hit a soft patch in the United States, but consumer and business confidence generally remains high across advanced economies.
Activity continued to be strong in China, and appears to have gained momentum in major commodity exporters.
Policy uncertainty and geopolitical concerns dampened market sentiment early April, but global equity prices and capital flows to emerging markets remained solid.
Oil prices dropped back to around $50/bbl as data showed U.S. crude oil production recovering in April to its highest level since August 2015.
Source: World Bank
IMF Working Paper-Long-Run Biological Interest Rate for Pay-As-You-Go Pensions in Advanced and Developing Countries
April 26, 2017--How much of an internal rate of return would a sustainable pay-as-you-go pension system offer current and future generations equally? The answer is the sum of the Long-Run Biological Interest Rates (LBIR), the real-world equivalent of Samuelson's (1958) biological interest rate, and future productivity growth. Reflecting global population ageing, the median LBIR across 172 countries is as low as 1 percent per year.
The LBIRs are particularly low in advanced countries, estimated to be negative in many of them, and require ample financial reserves today or future productivity growth to maintain participation in pension schemes. On the other hand, the LBIRs in less developed regions, such as in sub-Saharan Africa, are relatively high, indicating a potential to use a pay-as-you-go scheme to expand the coverage of public pensions. Raising the retirement age by five years brings up the LBIR by 40 basis points, significantly improving the long-run budget constraint of a pension scheme.
Source: IMF
Industrial Commodity Prices to Rise in 2017: World Bank
April 26, 2017--Oil prices to average $55 per barrel in 2017, rise next year
The World Bank is forecasting higher prices for industrial commodities, principally energy and metals, in 2017 and next year.
The World Bank in its April Commodity Markets Outlook is holding steady its crude oil price forecast for this year at $55 per barrel, increasing to an average of $60 per barrel in 2018. Rising oil prices, supported by production cutbacks by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC states, will allow markets to gradually rebalance.
view the World Bank April 2017 Commodity Markets Outlook
Source: World Bank
ETFs/ETPs listed globally gathered record inflows of US$66 billion and assets reached a new high of US$3.913 trillion at the end of Q1 2017
April 25, 2017-ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm on trends in the global ETF/ETP ecosystem, reported today following on from the strong start to the year assets invested in ETFs/ETPs listed globally reached a new record high of US$3.913 trillion at the end Q1 2017 surpassing the prior record of US$3.844 trillion set at the end of February 2017 according to preliminary data from ETFGI's Q1 2017 global ETF and ETP industry insights report.
Source: ETFGI
Twelfth progress report on adoption of Basel III standards published by the Basel Committee
April 25, 2017--The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has today issued the Twelfth progress report on adoption of the Basel regulatory framework.
This report sets out the adoption status of Basel III standards for each BCBS member jurisdiction as of end-March 2017. It updates the Committee's previous progress reports which have been published on a semiannual basis since October 2011 under the Committee's Regulatory Consistency Assessment Programme (RCAP).
Source: BIS
ETF Securities-Profit taking in precious metals but contrarian inflows into cocoa and oil
April 24, 2017--Profit taking on precious metals after last week's strong rally
Opportunistic inflows into crude oil ETPs as oil prices corrected last week
8th straight week into cocoa ETPs as spot prices hit a 4-year low
USD shorts are building
Profit taking in precious metals. With gold almost reaching our target price for the year (US$1,300/oz by mid-year), we saw outflows of US$-30 mn from gold ETPs.
The escalation of tensions in Syria, North Korea as well as uncertainty of the outcome of the French elections have driven inflows in previous weeks. Year-to-date, we have seen more than US$600mn into our gold ETPs, with almost US$80mn in the last month.
Source: etfsecurities.com
Earth Day 2017-Five Facts for Your Environmental and Climate Literacy
April 22, 2017--1. A healthy environment is fundamental to poverty reduction. Environmental income accounts for about 28 percent of income worldwide, with particular importance for low-income households.
Three-quarters of this income comes from natural forests, and one in eleven people are lifted out of extreme poverty thanks to forests- Without policies and action to address the climate challenge- an estimated 100 million more people will move into poverty by 2030.
2. Getting it right on climate change is also an opportunity to create jobs, economic growth and other benefits. Last year the number of U.S. jobs in solar energy overtook those in fossil fuel extraction for the first time-solar jobs grew 12 times faster than overall job creation. In China,there are 35 percent more people working in clean energy than in oil and gas.
Source: World Bank
IMF Fiscal Monitor: Achieving More with Less, April 2017
April 21, 2017--Fiscal policy has recently gained prominence, both in public debate and in governments' policy. A reassessment of fiscal policy is taking place, stressing its greater role in fostering sustainable and inclusive growth and smoothing the economic cycle.
At the same time, the high uncertainty surrounding the outlook and high levels of public debt require a better understanding and managing of fiscal risks. Therefore, fiscal policy has the difficult task of achieving more and better in a more constrained environment. This issue of the Fiscal Monitor shows how the evolution of the debate on fiscal policy can shed new light on fiscal developments and help frame policy recommendations to countries.
view the IMF Fiscal Monitor: Achieving More with Less, April 2017
Source: IMF
Guidance for Monetary Authorities on the recommended practice in accounting for gold
April 20, 2017--Monetary authorities hold gold in the performance of their official functions, typically as part of the country's official reserves.
This functional purpose differs from the objectives of other entities who hold gold. Monetary authorities also commonly hold gold in much larger quantities than other entities. General purpose financial reporting frameworks lack appropriate guidance on accounting for gold, in particular for the gold classified as monetary gold, held by monetary authorities.
Source: World Gold Council
Global Blockchain Market to Grow to $5.4 Billion within Six Years
April 20, 2017--Blockchain ledger usage is expected to grow by leaps and bounds over the next six years, according to a new study
The growth is expected to be greatest in North America and followed by Asia.
Source: tradersmagazine.com