ETF Securities Commodity Research: US natural gas-international demand unlikely to absorb domestic glut
May 3, 2017--Summary
Expansion of natural gas production in the US at a time when output of other fuels is also expected to increase will
mean that the US will become more reliant on exports.
The US is reliant on NAFTA members for export demand. The risk of disappointment at a time of trade frictions seem high. An increase in inventory over the next six months seems a likely outcome.
Source: etfsecurities.com
12 Types of Technical Indicators Used by Stock Traders
May 2, 2017--If you're planning to hold a portfolio of blue chip stocks well into retirement, then short-term movements in the market are not likely your biggest worry.
However, if you dabble in the stock market on a day-to-day basis, or if you simply want to know what drives the thinking of other market participants, it can be very beneficial to understand the basics of technical indicators.
Source: visualcapitalist.com
BetaShares-Global Market Outlook: May 2017- Earnings Uplift
May 2, 2017--Global stocks rose further in April, reflecting solid earnings results in the United States and reduced political risks in Europe.
The outlook for equity markets remains encouraging: importantly, earnings growth is lifting in several markets, and global bond yields and the $US remains well contained.
Source: BetaShares
ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis-Profit taking in precious metals continues
May 2, 2017--Profit taking in precious metals continued with outflow in gold totalling US$113m last week
Crude ETP inflows of US$62m as recent oil price weakness seen as a buying opportunity
Continued inflows into agri-commodities, potential bargain hunting given recent price weakness
Bearish EUR positioning after dovish ECB comments
Profit taking in Precious Metals continued with gold outflows totalling US$113m last week. Following the first round of the French Presidential elections, the worst case in terms of market concerns, a Melenchon/Le Pen second round, was averted. Consequently risk assets rallied and defensive assets sold off, with gold bearing the brunt of this with US$125 of outflows last week.
Source: etfsecurities.com
DECPG Global Monthly-April 2017
April 27, 2017--Monthly Highlights
Global industrial production and goods trade growth continued to recover from pronounced weakness in the first half of 2016.
Consumer spending hit a soft patch in the United States, but consumer and business confidence generally remains high across advanced economies.
Activity continued to be strong in China, and appears to have gained momentum in major commodity exporters.
Policy uncertainty and geopolitical concerns dampened market sentiment early April, but global equity prices and capital flows to emerging markets remained solid.
Oil prices dropped back to around $50/bbl as data showed U.S. crude oil production recovering in April to its highest level since August 2015.
Source: World Bank
IMF Working Paper-Long-Run Biological Interest Rate for Pay-As-You-Go Pensions in Advanced and Developing Countries
April 26, 2017--How much of an internal rate of return would a sustainable pay-as-you-go pension system offer current and future generations equally? The answer is the sum of the Long-Run Biological Interest Rates (LBIR), the real-world equivalent of Samuelson's (1958) biological interest rate, and future productivity growth. Reflecting global population ageing, the median LBIR across 172 countries is as low as 1 percent per year.
The LBIRs are particularly low in advanced countries, estimated to be negative in many of them, and require ample financial reserves today or future productivity growth to maintain participation in pension schemes. On the other hand, the LBIRs in less developed regions, such as in sub-Saharan Africa, are relatively high, indicating a potential to use a pay-as-you-go scheme to expand the coverage of public pensions. Raising the retirement age by five years brings up the LBIR by 40 basis points, significantly improving the long-run budget constraint of a pension scheme.
Source: IMF
Industrial Commodity Prices to Rise in 2017: World Bank
April 26, 2017--Oil prices to average $55 per barrel in 2017, rise next year
The World Bank is forecasting higher prices for industrial commodities, principally energy and metals, in 2017 and next year.
The World Bank in its April Commodity Markets Outlook is holding steady its crude oil price forecast for this year at $55 per barrel, increasing to an average of $60 per barrel in 2018. Rising oil prices, supported by production cutbacks by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC states, will allow markets to gradually rebalance.
view the World Bank April 2017 Commodity Markets Outlook
Source: World Bank
ETFs/ETPs listed globally gathered record inflows of US$66 billion and assets reached a new high of US$3.913 trillion at the end of Q1 2017
April 25, 2017-ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm on trends in the global ETF/ETP ecosystem, reported today following on from the strong start to the year assets invested in ETFs/ETPs listed globally reached a new record high of US$3.913 trillion at the end Q1 2017 surpassing the prior record of US$3.844 trillion set at the end of February 2017 according to preliminary data from ETFGI's Q1 2017 global ETF and ETP industry insights report.
Source: ETFGI
Twelfth progress report on adoption of Basel III standards published by the Basel Committee
April 25, 2017--The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has today issued the Twelfth progress report on adoption of the Basel regulatory framework.
This report sets out the adoption status of Basel III standards for each BCBS member jurisdiction as of end-March 2017. It updates the Committee's previous progress reports which have been published on a semiannual basis since October 2011 under the Committee's Regulatory Consistency Assessment Programme (RCAP).
Source: BIS
ETF Securities-Profit taking in precious metals but contrarian inflows into cocoa and oil
April 24, 2017--Profit taking on precious metals after last week's strong rally
Opportunistic inflows into crude oil ETPs as oil prices corrected last week
8th straight week into cocoa ETPs as spot prices hit a 4-year low
USD shorts are building
Profit taking in precious metals. With gold almost reaching our target price for the year (US$1,300/oz by mid-year), we saw outflows of US$-30 mn from gold ETPs.
The escalation of tensions in Syria, North Korea as well as uncertainty of the outcome of the French elections have driven inflows in previous weeks. Year-to-date, we have seen more than US$600mn into our gold ETPs, with almost US$80mn in the last month.
Source: etfsecurities.com