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IMF Executive Board Concludes 2019 Article IV Consultation with India
December 23, 2019--On November 25, 2019, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation [1] with India. The staff report and the macroeconomic projections are based on data available through October 16, 2019.
India has been among the fastest-growing economies in the world over the past few years, lifting millions out of poverty. However, growth slowed to 5.0 percent in the April-June 2019 quarter (y/y), a six-year low.
The deceleration of consumption and investment was exacerbated by weaknesses in the non-bank financial sector and corporate and environmental regulatory uncertainty. Weak demand in conjunction with continued low food prices-thanks to successive normal monsoon rainfall and agricultural sector reforms-caused average inflation to moderate to a multi-year low of 3.4 percent in FY2018/19. Through August, inflation remained below the mid-point of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s medium-term inflation target band of 4 percent ± 2 percent.
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Source: IMF
China Economic Update-December 2019
December 19, 2019--Key messages
China's economy is slowing, reflecting both cyclical factors and longer-term structural trends.
Growth is estimated to decelerate to 6.1 percent in 2019, amid cooling domestic and external demand, and other external factors.
A more accommodative policy stance has helped to mitigate some of these effects.
Growth is projected to moderate further to 5.9 percent in 2020, and 5.8 percent in 2021, reflecting the deeper structural trends-declining returns to public investment, growing debt and rapid aging.
Notwithstanding the recent conclusion of the phase one agreement between China and the United States, short-term risks remain tilted to the downside amid a fragile global outlook and the lingering impact of trade tensions.
Domestically, growth may suffer from the potential adverse effects of financial de-risking, given its asymmetric impact on private sector financing and the risk of a disorderly unwinding of excessive leverage.
view the World Bank China Economic Update, December 2019: Cyclical Risks and Structural Imperatives
Source: World Bank
BetaShares Australian ETF Review-November 2019
December 18, 2019--INDUSTRY BLASTS THROUGH THE $60B BARRIER
I know, I know, you are all getting tired of me saying this, but facts are facts, it was a truly momentous month of growth in the Australian ETF industry in November! The industry broke through the $60B barrier, breaking numerous records along the way, including all-time high assets under management, largest absolute monthly growth on record and largest absolute growth over a 12-month period.
Market cap
ASX Exchange Traded Product Market Cap: $60.7B-new industry record
Market cap increase for month: 6.1%, +$3.5B-Largest absolute monthly growth on record, fastest % monthly growth in >4 years
Market cap growth for the last 12 months: 48%, + $19.6B-Greatest absolute growth over 12-mth period
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Source: BetaShares
Vietnam's Economy Expanded by 6.8 Percent in 2019 but Reforms are Needed to Unleash the Potential of Capital Markets
December 17, 2019-Vietnam's economy has performed well in 2019, with GDP expanding by an estimated 6.8 percent, public debt reduced by almost 8 percentage point of GDP since 2016, and a trade balance surplus for the fourth year in a row. These results are remarkable in the context of a slowing global economy.
The latest Taking Stock, the World Bank's bi-annual economic report on Vietnam released today, emphasizes the resilience of the Vietnamese economy. GDP growth has continued to be driven by a strong external sector with exports expanding by about 8 percent in 2019-nearly 4 times faster than the world average. The country has also remained an attractive destination for foreign investors, with foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows averaging US$3 billion per month. In addition, private consumption has emerged as an important contributor to GDP growth as the result of an expanding middle-income class and rising wages. Private firms also increased investment by 17 percent during the same period.
view theFinance in Transition: Unlocking Capital Markets for Vietnam's Future Development report
Source: World Bank
Malaysia Economic Monitor: Making Ends Meet
December 9, 2019--Malaysia's economy continues to see growth, but its pace of expansion has moderated.
In the third quarter of 2019, growth slowed to 4.4% as a result of subdued global growth and heightened uncertainty.
Private consumption remained the highest contributor to growth.
Due to weaker-than-expected business and public investment, gross fixed capital formation continued to contract.
On the supply side, growth in key sectors such as services, manufacturing and agriculture, mining and construction decelerated.
Export demand softened in line with weak global demand.
Looking ahead, Malaysia's economy is projected to expand at a relatively moderate pace of 4.5% in 2020, amid continued uncertainty and external headwinds.
Short-term policies should focus on measures to boost resilience and protect the vulnerable.
Building fiscal buffers by raising government revenue without affecting low-income households is necessary to mitigate against potential shocks. This will help create fiscal space for development and social spending to boost shared prosperity.
view the World Bank Malaysia Economic Monitor, December 2019 : Making Ends Meet
Source: World Bank
December 2019 Indonesia Economic Quarterly: Investing in People
December 9, 2019--In light of challenging global economic conditions and a substantial deterioration of its terms-of-trade, Indonesia's economic growth decelerated to 5.0 percent in the third quarter of 2019, from 5.1 percent in the second quarter.
Domestic drivers of growth slowed. Fixed investment growth weakened further in the third quarter, given the significant decline in commodity prices and political uncertainty.
Total consumption growth also slowed, with government consumption decelerating markedly. The weakness in domestic demand was mirrored by a large contraction of import volumes, which together with flat exports meant that net exports made a large contribution to growth.
The current account deficit narrowed to 2.9 percent of GDP for the four quarters through Q3 2019, compared to 3.1 percent in the first two quarters. Capital inflows rose, leading to a larger surplus in the financial account.
view the World Bank December 2019 Indonesia Economic Quarterly: Investing in People report
Source: World Bank
India: step up reform efforts to increase quality jobs and incomes
December 5, 2019--India is set for a modest recovery after a loss of momentum, as reforms to simplify taxation, lighten business regulations and upgrade infrastructure start to bear fruit. Further reforms to modernise the economy are now needed to drive the creation of high-quality jobs, as well as measures to improve public services and welfare, according to a new OECD report.
The latest OECD Economic Survey of India notes that while India has greatly expanded its participation in global trade in recent years, private investment remains relatively weak, the employment rate has declined amid a shortage of quality jobs, rural incomes are stagnating, and per-capita income varies considerably across states.
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Source: OECD
World's largest pension fund halts stock lending to short sellers
December 3, 2019--Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), the world's largest pension fund, has suspended stock lending for short selling, calling the practice inconsistent with its responsibilities as a long-term investor.
The move, announced by the GPIF on Tuesday, is a blow for short sellers, who rely on securities lending to bet against companies and who are facing renewed moves in a number of countries to curb their activities.
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Source: Reuters
India's GDP Growth Slips To 4.5% In July-September, Lowest In 6 Years
November 29, 201--The RBI had lowered the GDP growth projection for 2019-20 to 6.1 per cent from earlier forecast of 6.9 per cent.
India's economic growth slipped further to hit an over six-year low of 4.5 per cent in July-September, according to official data released on Friday.
The previous low was recorded at 4.3 per cent in the January-March period of 2012-13. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was registered at 7 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2018-19.
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Source: outlookindia.com
Hong Kong's Economy is in Danger of Further Contraction
November 21, 2019--Approaching the end of a volatile year, Hong Kong continues to face the triple whammy of slower growth in mainland China, the trade war uncertainty and social unrest.
While the former two external risks are not in the hands of Hong Kong and are subject to global development, the escalated social unrest and the lack of fiscal stimulus are bringing a higher downside risk to economic growth (Chart 1).
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Source: bruegel.org
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