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IMF Working Paper-The Drivers, Implications and Outlook for China's Shrinking Current Account Surplus
November 8, 2019--Summary:
China's current account surplus has declined significantly from its peak in 2008 and the external position in 2018 was in line with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies. While cyclical factors and expansionary credit and fiscal policies contributed, the trend decline has been largely structural, driven by economic rebalancing from investment to consumption, appreciation of the real effective exchange rate (REER) towards equilibrium, increase in outbound tourism, and moderation in goods surplus reflecting market saturation and China's faster growth compared with trading partners.
Policies should focus on continued rebalancing and opening up to ensure excessive surpluses do not return, and to prepare the economy and the financial system to handle more volatile capital flows. From a global perspective, the decline in China's surplus has lowered global imbalances, but with different impact across countries. The analysis is based on data as of July 2019.
HK, Taiwan divergence result of economic policies
November 5, 2019--While the effect of the ongoing unrest on the Hong Kong economy is obvious, Taiwan was already doing better before the protests started.
Hong Kong and Taiwan published their third-quarter growth figures very close in time, but the results were far apart.
The two share the same global risks insofar as both are open economies affected by the US-China trade war and are heavily dependent on the mainland, whose economy is slowing down.
And yet, while both economies grew at the same speed (2.9%), it was in opposite directions: Taiwan positively and Hong Kong negatively.
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Source: SEC.gov
China Analysts Already Calling Time on Yuan's Surge Past 7
November 5, 2019--Currency stronger than key level for first time since August
Recent rally likely to be temporary, top forecaster says
China's yuan rallied past 7 per dollar only yesterday and analysts are already warning the strength won't last.
The currency jumped as much as 0.60% to 6.9880 a dollar Tuesday, trading stronger than the key level for the first time since August. The offshore rate rose as much 0.66%. The level had been a key support for the currency for years until August, when the central bank allowed it to weaken past 7 for the first time in more than a decade
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Source: Bloomberg.com
IMF Building on South Asia's Economic Success
November 4, 2019--South Asia is poised to play a key role in the global economy, building on the steady economic progress and reform process over the last few decades. Despite the recent global economic slowdown, India remains among the fastest-growing large economies, and South Asia's contribution to global growth is set to increase, while those of more mature economies around the world decelerate.
With a population that has a median age under 27, South Asia is the youngest region in Asia. Based on demographic trends, more than 150 million people in the region are expected to enter the labor market by 2030. A large and young workforce can be South Asia's strength, if supported by a high-quality and job-rich growth strategy that leverages all sectors of the economy in a balanced way.
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Source: IMF
China issues its first euro-denominated sovereign bonds in 15 years
October 31, 2019--Beijing seeks to take advantage of low interest rates to diversify away from dollar debt
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Source: FT.com
China's fund industry suffers slowing growth
October 28, 2019--Predictions of when country's market will overtake UK's have been pushed back
The rapid growth of the Chinese asset management industry has faltered in the past two years as the country's slowing economy and choppy...
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Source: FT.com
IMF-Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook: Caught in Prolonged Uncertainty
October 22, 2019--Headwinds from prolonged global policy uncertainty, distortionary trade measures, and growth deceleration in the economies of important trading partners are influencing economic growth in Asia and the Pacific. Although the region is still the world's fastest growing major region, contributing more than two-thirds to global growth, near-term prospects have deteriorated noticeably since the April 2019 World Economic Outlook, with risks skewed to the downside.
Growth in Asia is expected to moderate to 5.0 percent in 2019 and 5.1 percent in 2020 (0.4 and 0.3 percentage point lower than projected last April, respectively). A marked deceleration in merchandise trade and investment, driven by distortionary trade measures and an uncertain policy environment, is weighing on activity, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Loosening monetary policy in key advanced economies and, correspondingly, easing financial conditions, are mitigating the impact of slower growth on Asian economies, but could add to financial vulnerabilities in the region.
IMF Departmental Papers-Facing the Tides: Managing Capital Flows in Asia view the IMF Departmental Papers-Facing the Tides: Managing Capital Flows in Asia China Braces for Economic Growth to Fall Below 6%
Data released Friday showed an economy expanding at just 6.0%, the slowest in almost three decades,and with broad investment growth too tepid to rely on an upturn down the road. view more World Bank-Growth in South Asia Slows Down, Rebound Uncertain view the World Bank South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2019: Making (De)centralization Work If you are looking for a particuliar article and can not find it, please feel free to contact us
Source: IMF
October 22, 2019--Summary:
This paper looks empirically at some economic effects of volatile exchange rates and financial conditions and examines policy responses for managing such volatility.
It also sheds light on some economic costs that stem from volatile capital flows and exchange rates and analyzes how countries deploy their policy toolkits in response. The data-driven analysis should contribute to ongoing reflections about how to manage volatile capital flows and exchange rates both in Asian EMEs and more broadly.
Source: IMF
October 20, 2019--PBOC's Yi stressed importance of stable debt at IMF meetings
Top Party officials to meet in October on long-term policies.
China's policy makers are preparing for two key meetings in the coming weeks with fresh evidence that sooner rather than later, the number for gross domestic product growth will start with a 5.
Source: Bloomberg
October 13, 2019--In line with a global downward trend, growth in South Asia is projected to slow to 5.9 percent in 2019, down 1.1 percentage points from April 2019 estimates, casting uncertainty about a rebound in the short term, says the World Bank in its twice-a-year regional economic update.
The latest edition of the South Asia Economic Focus, Making (De)centralization Work, finds that strong domestic demand, which propped high growth in the past, has weakened, driving a slowdown across the region. Imports have declined severely across South Asia, contracting between 15 and 20 percent in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. In India, domestic demand has slipped, with private consumption growing 3.1 percent in the last quarter from 7.3 percent a year ago, while manufacturing growth plummeted to below 1 percent in the second quarter of 2019 compared to over 10 percent a year ago.
Source: World Bank
