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China's Economic Outlook in Six Charts
August 9, 2019--China's economic growth is moderating and is projected to be 6.2 percent in 2019. In its latest annual assessment of China's economy, the IMF found the quality of growth had improved in three ways in 2018. First, the pace of debt accumulation had slowed. Second, the financial system is better regulated and supervised.
Finally, the current account surplus is no longer excessive. But trade tensions cloud the outlook, and reforms need to deepen if this progress is to be continued.
After slowing last year, debt accumulation accelerated in the first quarter of 2019. By avoiding further stimulus measures, China would help check the pace of debt accumulation. However, some modest fiscal stimulus would be appropriate to offset the negative impact to the economy of higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.
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Source: IMF
Japan preliminary Q2 GDP: 0.4% q/q (vs. expected 0.1%
August 8, 2019--Japanese economic growth data for the second quarter of 2019
GDP (seasonally adjusted) for Q2, preliminary, 0.4% q/q ...a big beat, at least on this early indication
expected 0.1%, prior 0.6%
GDP Annualized (seasonally adjusted) for Q2, preliminary 1.8% y/y
expected 0.5%, prior 2.2%
GDP Nominal (seasonally adjusted) for Q2, preliminary 0.4% q/q
expected 0.1%, prior 0.8%
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Source: forexlive.com
China's new renminbi level set to pressure Asia currencies
August 8, 2019--China's central bank set the midpoint for the renminbi's trading band above seven to the dollar on Thursday for the first time since the global financial crisis, allowing further weakness in a move that could drag down currencies across the Asia-Pacific region.
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Source: FT.com
Pension funds to invest $500m in Indian infrastructure
August 6, 2019--Two of the world's largest retirement funds are to invest at least $500m in Indian infrastructure, in a boost for Narendra Modi's efforts to attract foreign investment even as India's economy faces a slowdown.
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Source: FT.com
Japanese pension funds put record amounts into alternatives
August 4, 2019--Allocation to domestic government bonds falls to 18.3%
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Source: FT.com
Chinese Yuan Skids to 2019 Low as Trump Ramps Up Trade Conflict
August 2, 2019--Threat of more tariffs further clouds Beijing’s efforts to manage its currency
China's yuan slid to its weakest level of the year, nearing the symbolic level of 7 per dollar, after President Trump threatened to impose more tariffs on Chinese imports.
The prospect that tariffs could be extended to essentially all Chinese imports has further clouded China's efforts to manage its currency. A weaker yuan makes it cheaper for U.S. buyers to purchase Chinese goods, helping offset the impact of higher tariffs. But China doesn't want to prompt an exodus of capital, which in turn could prompt further currency...
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Source: wsj.com
IMF Working Paper-Labor Market Slack and the Output Gap: The Case of Korea
August 2, 2019--Summary:
Output gap estimates are widely used to inform macroeconomic policy decisions, including in Korea. The main determinant of these estimates is the measure of labor market slack. The traditional measure of unemployment in Korea yields an incomplete estimate of labor market slack, given that many workers prefer involuntary part-time jobs or leaving the labor force rather than registering as unemployed.
This paper discusses a way in which the measure of unemployment can be broadened to yield a more accurate measure of labor market slack. This broader measure is then used to estimate the output gap using a multivariate filter, yielding a more meaningful measure of the output gap.
view the IMF Working Paper-Labor Market Slack and the Output Gap: The Case of Korea
Source: IMF
IMF Staff Country Report-Indonesia: Selected Issues
July 31, 2019--EXCHANGE RATE AND TRADE DYNAMICS IN INDONESIA: CONNECTING THE DOTS1
This paper provides an overview of the exchange rate and trade dynamics in Indonesia. Using data on monthly export and import price and volume at the sectoral level, the paper estimates pass-through effects of exchange rate changes to trade price and volume. Results indicate adjustment frictions that depend on the source of the exchange rate fluctuation and the degree of integration in global value chains.
Overall, combining price and volume effects, we find that a 10 percent depreciation in the exchange rate is associated with a rise in the goods net-exports of up to 1.6 percent of GDP.
A. Exchange Rate and Trade Balance: Recent Trends
1. Movements in exchange rates play an important role in determining how a country's trade balance adjusts in response to both external and domestic shocks. Exchange rates typically act as a shock absorber, in the sense that in response to an external shock, a depreciation
should boost exports through the competitiveness channel and reduce imports as they become more expensive relative to domestic goods.2
view the IMF Staff Country Report-Indonesia: Selected Issues
Source: IMF
Japan says GDP growth could slow to 0.9% on weakening global demand
July 29, 2019--Japan's government slashed its economic growth forecast for this year largely due to weaker exports, in a sign the protracted U.S.-China trade war is taking a bigger toll on the world's third-largest economy.
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Source: Reuters
Malaysia has achieved high levels of growth, but must do more to address governance and social challenges
July 24, 2019-- Malaysia's economic performance has been very successful, but public policy can do more to address social and governance challenges while making growth stronger, greener and more inclusive, according to a new report from the OECD.
The latest OECD Economic Survey of Malaysia discusses how boosting productivity and implementing new structural reforms can help Malaysia move up global value chains and reach its goal of achieving high-income country status by 2024. The Survey projects the economy will remain resilient, with growth just under 5% this year and next, but cautions that trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties and weaker advanced economies are downside risks.
view the OECD Malaysia Economic Snapshot
Source: OECD
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