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China Food Price Tracker: Cheaper food
April 26, 2012--Most food items saw price declines during April 11-20 due to warmer weather and restored supply. Vegetable and pork prices decreased the most, while the price for edible oil was raised by major edible oil producers.
Going forward, we see vegetable and pork prices dropping further as we enter summer. Headline CPI is expected to fall gradually during April-May and then to 2% in June/July when the high base effect kicks in.
Food prices on average have declined by 1.3% since 1 April, and vegetable prices have declined the most Food prices declined on average by 0.66% during 1-10 April and by another 0.66% during 11-20 April (Figure 1). The abnormally cold weather in early March pushed some vegetable prices higher and contributed to the CPI rebound in March. Since then, most vegetable prices have returned to their normal levels as the warmer weather helped restore the supply of greens. One exception is the celery cabbage price, which has increased by 66% since mid-February.
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Source: Mirae Asset Management
China Strategy: Entering 2Q: Cautiously optimistic
April 25, 2012--China has remained on track until now for a soft-landing scenario. However, we maintain our cautious view that growth may not have bottomed out yet, as more ambitious policy easing is not likely to start until mid-year.
With such a cautious view, we believe that in 2Q, China’s energy, property, utilities and Macau gaming sectors will likely outperform, while the outlook for the second half of the year remains unclear. Meanwhile, we have downgraded China’s Internet sector to neutral as valuation appears less attractive now.
Growth may not have bottomed yet, as more ambitious policy easing may not start until mid-year Average CPI declined in 1Q, while growth indicators are mixed, but they generally suggest weakening momentum, although accelerated construction of social housing has provided some buffer. Liquidity conditions have improved, but policy has not yet been eased significantly. Particularly, we believe the rebound in new lending in March is not sustainable, as it was mostly driven by seasonal factors. Assuming that more ambitious policy easing may start around mid-2012, when both inflation and growth would drop further, the economy may not rebound on a more sustainable basis until the second half of the year.
With a cautious view on growth in 2Q, we maintain Overweight on China’s property, energy, utilities, and Macau gaming sectors The property sector may see sales boost in May and June because of the developers’ strong new sales pipeline and stronger buyer interest. With inflation trending down, the recent domestic oil price hike and possible utility tariff hikes would benefit the energy and utility sectors. We also maintain our view that China’s more relaxed policy stance would be a potential catalyst for Macau gaming. However, we have downgraded China’s Internet sector to neutral, as valuation is less attractive now and industry fundamentals are deteriorating.
read moreview report-China Strategy: Entering 2Q: Cautiously optimistic
Source: Mirae Asset Management
China's slowdown not over
April 25, 2012--Our last issue of Macro Matters reached the conclusion it may be best to sell and reduce beta into this rally and come back when the contours of China's slowdown and the policy response become more certain.
According to our sales people some clients they spoke with didn’t agree with this view. Indeed, many felt China had bottomed or is bottoming and a pick up lies ahead. Thus, go long China and raise the beta of the portfolio.
We disagree with the notion that China has bottomed or is bottoming now (see our recent report "China: is the worst over"). In fact, China may not bottom until much later this year and the bounce may be much more modest than the market seems to expect.
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Source: Mirae Asset Management
TSE publish the index value of TSE Home Price Index for February.
April 24, 2012--TSE has published the index value of TSE Home Price Index for February on April 24, 2012.
The index value of TSE Home Price Index (Used Condominium, Composite of Tokyo Metro Area) is 79.35 points. The index value of TSE Home Price Index (Used Condominium, Tokyo) is 83.36 points.
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Source: TSE
Asia slips amid uncertainty in Europe
April 24, 2012--Most Asian shares lost ground for a fourth consecutive day as political uncertainty in France and the Netherlands, coupled with poor economic data from the region, revived concerns about the eurozone.
The MSCI Asia Pacific index slipped 0.3 per cent with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average down 0.7 per cent and South Korea’s Kospi Composite index off 0.6 per cent. But Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index inched up 0.1 per cent while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng index gained 0.3 per cent as property shares and mainland lenders rallied.
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Source: FT.com
DB-Equity Research-Asia-Pac-ETF Market Weekly Review : ETP AUM remains at $100bn level amid mixed markets
April 23, 2012--Market Review
The Asia-Pacific region had mixed markets last week. In all, Japan (Nikkei 225) lost 0.80%, Korea (KOSPI2) sank by 1.88%, China (CSI 300) advanced by 1.80%, Hong Kong (HSI) increased by 1.50%, Singapore (FSSTI) grew by 0.22%, and Australia (S&P/ASX 200) gained 1% over the previous week.
New Launch Review
There was no new listing during last week in the Asia-Pacific region.
Turnover Review
Asia-Pacific ETP turnover totaled $4.9bn for the last week, 5.8% down from the previous week’s total. South Korea continues to be on top of the turnover ranking with $1.8bn, followed by China ($1.2bn), Hong Kong ($1bn), Japan ($0.5bn), and Taiwan ($0.1bn). Among Equity ETFs, Emerging Country, Leveraged Strategy, Asia Pac Developed Country, and Short Strategy ETFs had total turnover of $2.5bn, $0.9bn, $0.7bn and $0.3bn respectively. Under the Commodity asset class, turnover in Gold ETPs totaled $60m for the last week.
Assets Under Management Review
Asia-Pacific ETP AUM ended the week with a marginal increase and ended at $100bn. On a year-to-date basis, Asia-Pacific ETP market is up by $8.5bn or 9.3% above last year’s closing.
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Source: Deutsche Bank - Equity Research - Asia Pacific
FSA extends temporary measures regarding restrictions on short selling and purchase of own stocks by listed companies
April 20, 2012--1. The following regulatory measures on short selling are currently in place, with regard to all listed stocks in Japan:
1) An "uptick rule requirement" which prohibits, in principle, short selling at the same as or prices lower than the latest market price
2) Requirements for traders to verify and flag whether or not the transactions in question are short selling; and
3) Request the exchanges to make daily announcements on their aggregate price of short selling regarding all securities and aggregate price of short selling by sector (The announcements have been made sequentially since October 14, 2008). (See the FSA press release on October 14, 2008.)
In addition, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) has put in force the following measures, as temporary measures effective until April 30,2012 (See the FSA press release on October 24, 2011.):
1) Naked short selling (short selling in which stocks are not borrowed at the time of selling) is prohibited (effective since October 30, 2008); and
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Source: FSA.go.jp
HKEx: Changes Of Designated Securities For Short Selling
April 20, 2012--The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEx), announces that with effect from 27 April 2012 (Friday), 30 additional securities will be eligible for short selling and 21 existing designated securities will be removed from the list.
The total number of designated securities for short selling will be 646after the revision.
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Source: Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited,
HKEx to offer renminbi futures
April 19, 2012--The internationalisation of the renminbi is gathering pace, with Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing to begin trading futures on the currency.
The exchange will launch a US dollar-renminbi contract in the third quarter to give investors a hedge against their exposure to the Chinese currency.
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Source: FT.com
Yen falls on monetary easing pledge
April 19, 2012--The yen fell hard on Thursday after Japan stepped up levels of verbal intervention ahead of the central bank's monetary policy decision next week and the country recorded a record trade deficit in fiscal 2011.
The yen fell 0.4 per cent to Y81.58 against the dollar, 0.5 per cent against the euro to Y107.15 and 0.6 per cent against sterling to Y130.96
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Source: FT.com
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