A Few White Papers
you are currently viewing::Impact Dynamics of Natural Disasters and the Case of Pacific Island CountriesMay 2, 2025--
Summary Although the negative impacts generally diminish within a year for most countries, PICs face disproportionately larger and rising short-term disruptions (-1.4 percent of annual potential growth) and persistent medium-term consequences. Further analysis of PIC's' fiscal, external, and real sectors following severe disasters using annual economic data reveals that weaker fiscal positions, partly driven by reduced output, may lead to an upward trend in public debt, and increased imports may deteriorate current account balances over the medium term. These findings underscore the need for robust counter-cyclical policies and proactive investments in climate resilience to mitigate the adverse effects of climate shocks and promote long-term economic stability Source: IMF.org |
IMF Note-Fund Investor Types and Bond Market Volatility
March 12, 2025-Summary
This note explores the connection between the varied investor profiles of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and open-ended mutual funds (OEMFs) and the return volatility of the securities they hold. Based on the security-level data of US ETF and OEMF holdings, the analysis suggests that, on aggregate, a higher ETF ownership share may be associated with lower bond return volatility.
IMF Working Paper-Not all Housing Cycles are Created Equal: Macroeconomic Consequences of Housing Booms
February 28, 2025-Summary
Summary
This paper shows that not all housing price cycles are alike. The nature of the housing expansion phase-especially whether a housing price boom characterized by rapid and persistent house price growth is present-plays a key role in shaping the severity of the subsequent contraction, and the net macroeconomic impact over the full cycle.
Pension Reform and Stock Market Development
February 28, 2025-Summary
We highlight the strong connection between developing fully-funded, individually-owned, collectively-managed, mandatory/incentivized (FICMI) pension schemes and the development of domestic stock markets. We do so by building a stylized model and complementing the analysis with cross-country empirical analysis and case studies.
IMF Working Paper-Understanding the Macroeconomic Effects of Natural Disasters
February 21, 2025-Summary
Climate change is causing more frequent and devastating natural disasters. The goal of this paper is two-fold. First, it examines the dynamic effects of natural disasters on the growth of output and its components. Government expenditure in advanced economies (AEs) rises immediately in the same year of the natural disaster, offsetting the decline in private investment growth and thereby mitigating the negative effect on output growth.
IMF Working Paper-Prometheus Unbound: What Makes Fintech Grow?
February 21, 2025-Summary
The rise of financial technologies-fintech-could have transformative effects on the financial landscape, expanding the reach of services beyond the confines of geography and creating new competitive sources of finance for households and firms. But what makes fintech grow? Why do some countries have more financial innovation than others?
White Paper-Monetary Policy Predicts Currency Movements
February 9, 2025--Abstract
The relative restrictiveness of a central bank's supply of money predicts the raw and risk-adjusted returns of its currency-both next month and at least three years into the future.
