A Few White Papers
you are currently viewing::Navigating Trade-Offs between Price and Financial Stability in Times of High InflationApril 11, 2025-Summary In such circumstances, central banks should account for financial stress increasing downside risks to activity, allow for slower disinflation using monetary policy flexibility, and communicate that deviations from the medium-term inflation target are temporary. Countries with weak central bank credibility, high exposure to exchange rate movements, and limited fiscal space face extra challenges in managing these trade-offs and might have to rely on foreign exchange interventions, macroprudential policies, capital flow measures, and international liquidity tools. Source: IMF.org |
IMF Working Papers-Inflation Targeting and the Legacy of High Inflation
April 11, 2025-Summary
As inflation targeting (IT) turns 35, it has become a key institutional monetary framework by central banks. Yet, this paper shows that stark differences exist among inflation targeting countries in the conduct of monetary policy. Behind such heterogeneity, the legacy of a high inflation history appears as a preponderant factor.
IMF Working Papers-The Global Impact of AI: Mind the Gap
April 11, 2025-Summary
This paper examines the uneven global impact of AI, highlighting how its effects will be a function of (i) countries' sectoral exposure to AI, (ii) their preparedness to integrate these technologies into their economies, and (iii) their access to essential data and technologies.
Could Digital Currencies Lead to the Disappearance of Cash from the Market?
March 21, 2025-Summary
Private and public agents' plans and actions to introduce digital currencies and other innovative payment instruments could produce some unintended consequences, including the potential disappearance of physical cash. This study employs a two-sided market model to examine how payment systems might respond to new currencies.
IMF Note-Fund Investor Types and Bond Market Volatility
March 12, 2025-Summary
This note explores the connection between the varied investor profiles of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and open-ended mutual funds (OEMFs) and the return volatility of the securities they hold. Based on the security-level data of US ETF and OEMF holdings, the analysis suggests that, on aggregate, a higher ETF ownership share may be associated with lower bond return volatility.
IMF Working Paper-Not all Housing Cycles are Created Equal: Macroeconomic Consequences of Housing Booms
February 28, 2025-Summary
Summary
This paper shows that not all housing price cycles are alike. The nature of the housing expansion phase-especially whether a housing price boom characterized by rapid and persistent house price growth is present-plays a key role in shaping the severity of the subsequent contraction, and the net macroeconomic impact over the full cycle.
Pension Reform and Stock Market Development
February 28, 2025-Summary
We highlight the strong connection between developing fully-funded, individually-owned, collectively-managed, mandatory/incentivized (FICMI) pension schemes and the development of domestic stock markets. We do so by building a stylized model and complementing the analysis with cross-country empirical analysis and case studies.
IMF Working Paper-Understanding the Macroeconomic Effects of Natural Disasters
February 21, 2025-Summary
Climate change is causing more frequent and devastating natural disasters. The goal of this paper is two-fold. First, it examines the dynamic effects of natural disasters on the growth of output and its components. Government expenditure in advanced economies (AEs) rises immediately in the same year of the natural disaster, offsetting the decline in private investment growth and thereby mitigating the negative effect on output growth.
IMF Working Paper-Prometheus Unbound: What Makes Fintech Grow?
February 21, 2025-Summary
The rise of financial technologies-fintech-could have transformative effects on the financial landscape, expanding the reach of services beyond the confines of geography and creating new competitive sources of finance for households and firms. But what makes fintech grow? Why do some countries have more financial innovation than others?
White Paper-Monetary Policy Predicts Currency Movements
February 9, 2025--Abstract
The relative restrictiveness of a central bank's supply of money predicts the raw and risk-adjusted returns of its currency-both next month and at least three years into the future.
Social Security Reforms, Retirement and Sectoral Decisions
January 31, 2025--Summary
In many countries, the regulations governing pension systems, hiring procedures, and job contracts differ between the public and private sectors. Public sector employees tend to have longer tenures and higher wages compared to workers in the private sector.
As such, social security reforms can affect both retirement decisions and sectoral choices. We study the effects of social security reforms on retirement and sectoral behavior in an economy with multiple pension systems.
