A Few White Papers
you are currently viewing::IMF Working Paper Fiscal-monetary Interactions: The Role of Debt MaturityOctober 13, 2026-Summary When the government relies more heavily on short-term debt, contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to large and persistent increases in public debt, more pronounced deteriorations in fiscal and financial conditions, and significantly larger declines in output, inflation, and private investment. These effects are substantially attenuated when debt maturity is longer. We rationalize the findings with a model in which a constrained intermediary holds both private credit and long-duration government debt and carries its bond portfolio at amortized cost. The intermediary's opportunity cost of lending therefore depends in part on the yield locked in when the bonds were acquired, rather than solely on their one-period holding return, allowing sovereign debt maturity to directly influence the price of private credit. Source: imf.org |
Aggregate Gains from AI and Their Distribution: Global Evidence from Usage Data
July 10, 2026-Summary
How large are the gains from AI, and how are they distributed across occupations? Using five waves of the Anthropic Economic Index (January 2025 to February 2026), we construct two novel measures from observed AI usage across countries over the world.
Gold in Central Bank Reserves: Strategic Considerations, Market Risks, and Practical Guidance
July 9, 2026-Gold has re-emerged as a prominent component of central bank reserves, largely reflecting valuation gains from higher gold prices rather than large-scale accumulation. This Note assesses gold's role from a reserve management perspective, emphasizing that while gold carries no credit risk and may support long-term balance-sheet resilience, it is highly volatile, offers only conditional hedging and diversification benefits, and is ill-suited to the liquidity tranche of reserves.
