OECD Economic Outlook. Volume 2025 Issue 2 Resilient Growth but with Increasing Fragilities
you are currently viewing::OECD Economic Outlook. Volume 2025 Issue 2 Resilient Growth but with Increasing FragilitiesDecember 2, 2025-The global economy has proved more resilient than expected this year, supported by improved financial conditions, rising AI-related investment and trade, and macroeconomic policies. However, underlying fragilities are increasing. Labour markets are showing first signs of weakening despite the OECD unemployment rate steady at 4.9%, with job vacancies falling below their 2019 average in many countries and confidence softening. Risks around the outlook remain significant, including the prospect of further trade barriers, a potential sharp repricing of risk in financial markets, potentially amplified by stresses in leveraged non-bank financial institutions and volatile crypto-asset markets. Lingering fiscal concerns could lead to further increases in long-term bond yields, which may tighten financial conditions and elevate debt-service burdens, potentially weighing on economic growth. Source: oecd.org |
April 14, 2026-The global economy faces renewed tests as the war in the Middle East threatens to disrupt growth and disinflation.
After withstanding higher trade barriers and elevated uncertainty last year, global activity now faces a major test from the outbreak of war in the Middle East. Assuming that the conflict remains limited in duration and scope, global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027.