Even as Global Uncertainty Surges, Economic Sentiment Remains Positive
you are currently viewing::Even as Global Uncertainty Surges, Economic Sentiment Remains PositiveNovember 10, 2025-Amid rising geopolitical rifts and trade tensions, global economic uncertainty has surged, yet sentiment about economic prospects remains positive
Uncertainty has surged to an exceptionally high level globally, and it's likely here to stay, as the IMF noted during the recent Annual Meetings. To better understand what causes this and what it reveals, we developed a new subcomponent of that measure, the World Policy Uncertainty Index, which, like its counterpart, is drawn from textual sources. Our new gauge tracks reports by the Economist Intelligence Unit by tallying country-level references to "uncertain," "uncertainty," and "uncertainties" in passages related to "policy," "policymaking," as well as words related to politics, such as "election," "government," and "vote." It covers 71 advanced countries, emerging markets, and developing economies. Source: imf.org |
April 14, 2026-The global economy faces renewed tests as the war in the Middle East threatens to disrupt growth and disinflation.
After withstanding higher trade barriers and elevated uncertainty last year, global activity now faces a major test from the outbreak of war in the Middle East. Assuming that the conflict remains limited in duration and scope, global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027.