Meeting of 10-11 June 2026 Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank Meeting of 10-11 June 2026 Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank

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Meeting of 10-11 June 2026 Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank

July 9, 2026-Held in Frankfurt am Main1. Review of financial, economic and monetary developments and policy options-Financial market developments
Ms Schnabel started her presentation by noting that, since the Governing Council's previous monetary policy meeting on 29-30 April 2026, euro area financial markets had been torn between two competing developments: the unresolved conflict in the Middle East and the global artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

The continued disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz had reinforced expectations that oil prices would remain higher for longer, despite markedly lower near-term oil prices. Inflation fixings had declined from their high April readings but continued to hover above 3% for 2026 and above 2% for 2027. In tandem with oil prices, ECB rate expectations had moderated somewhat. However, markets still priced in around three interest rate hikes overall, while the median response in the ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts was an expectation of only two hikes. Although the war was weighing on growth expectations in the euro area and globally, investors' risk appetite had remained strong. A key underlying factor had been renewed optimism about AI and strong momentum in AI-related investment. As a result, euro area equity markets had recovered close to pre-war levels, and corporate and sovereign bond spreads remained narrow. Overall, financial conditions had remained broadly unchanged since April 2026 but remained tighter than before the start of the Middle East war.

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Source: ecb.europa.eu


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