Meeting of 29-30 April 2026 Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank Meeting of 29-30 April 2026 Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank

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Meeting of 29-30 April 2026 Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank

May 28, 2026-1. Review of financial, economic and monetary developments and policy options-Financial market developments
Ms Schnabel started her presentation by noting that since the Governing Council's previous monetary policy meeting on 18-19 March 2026, movements in euro area financial markets had continued to be driven by developments in the Middle East and their impact on energy prices. Amid elevated volatility, markets continued to expect the oil price shock to be persistent.

Although upside risks had moderated, oil was priced significantly higher, over an extended period of time, than it had been before the start of the war in the Middle East. As a result, markets continued to price in a notable and sustained inflationary impact. Inflation fixings had increased further for both 2026 and 2027. This suggested that investors anticipated some indirect or second-round effects extending beyond the first year of the conflict, before inflation was expected to return to the target of 2% in 2028. At the same time, markets continued to expect the economy to be relatively resilient. Prices of risk assets, including equities, as well as sovereign and corporate bond spreads, and the exchange rate of the euro had moved back towards the levels observed prior to the conflict.

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Source: ecb.europa.eu


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