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Dubai Gold And Commodities Exchange Weekly Views Dec 6, 2009
December 6, 2009--Commodities Overview
The precious metals and energy markets shrugged off Dubai World’s debt issues as investors perceived the brief dips as buying opportunities. Gold prices reached record highs again last week as economic anxieties persist.
Prices came off sharply on Friday 4 December amid a strong U.S. employment report, short-term liquidation, technical selling, and a strengthening U.S. dollar. Gold may continue to come under downward pressure this week as shorter term focused market participants book profits. Interest in gold by longer term investors is expected to remain strong, with the global economy yet to find firm footing. As a result, any spikes lower are expected to be perceived as buying opportunities. Prices will find some resistance at $1,120 - $1,130. Likewise for silver, short-term speculators could liquidate their long positions at current price levels but safe haven buying is expected to endure this wave of profit-taking. In the crude oil market, meanwhile, the impact of prevailing weak fundamentals has been minimal in the face of fairly robust investment demand. WTI oil could continue to trade in a narrow range, above $75, as eager investors seek exposure to the market. Bearish fundamentals remain on the horizon.
Currencies Overview
Unexpectedly bullish employment indicators in the United States boosted the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other major currencies on Friday 4 December. Non-farm payrolls fell by 11,000 in November, which surprised many market participants who were expecting a decline of 125,000. Investor confidence in the dollar re-emerged with this sign of improvement in the U.S. economy. Last week the euro fell 1.2% against the dollar while the yen depreciated 4.6%. The U.S. dollar index may strengthen moderately this week. Both more intense signs of an emerging economic recovery and investor skepticism about the economy could be beneficial for the dollar. If the signs of recovery grow more intense, the Fed may increase interest rates sooner than expected, effectively pushing the dollar higher. If this occurs over the medium term, the carry-trade also could weaken sooner than expected.
Source: Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX)
Six Dubai GREs downgraded following review of extraordinary government support; still On Watch Neg
December 3, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said it has lowered its issuer credit ratings on six Dubai-based GREs: DIFC Investments LLC, DP World Ltd., Jebel Ali Free Zone (FZE), Dubai Multi Commodities Centre Authority (DMCC), Dubai Holding Commercial Operations Group LLC (DHCOG), and Emaar Properties PJSC..
The issuer credit ratings on these six GREs remain on CreditWatch with negative implications, where they had originally been placed on Nov. 25, 2009.
Source: AME Info
Region's economic growth driven chiefly by oil sector with a barrel averaging $60 this year says National Commercial Bank's Chief Economist
December 3, 2009--Dr Said A Al Shiekh, National Commercial Bank's Chief Economist has said the GCC could "expect an improved economic outlook largely driven by the oil sector".
Al Shiekh - presenting a talk entitled 'Vision for 2010: Where are we headed? Upcoming challenges in 2010' at this year's two-day CFO Strategies Middle East event at Raffles Hotel, Dubai, UAE - was one of several key speakers from the finance sector present at the event. The theme of the 3rd annual event - held from November 22nd - 23rd, 2009 - was 'Managing through a downturn'.
According to Al Shiekh:
"There are tentative signs of improvement in 2010's outlook with diversion between. Project financing will continue to be difficult through 2009-2010, however. The region's headline growth figure will edge higher, largely due to an expected increase in hydro-carbon production."
Source: AME Info
Dubai World to meet creditors
December 3, 2009--Dubai World will meet its main creditors next week to discuss its request to delay payment on $26bn in debt, Reuters has reported.
An Abu Dhabi bank executive, who asked not to be named, said Standard Chartered, HSBC, Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland, along with local lenders Emirates NBD and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank were on the creditors panel.
Source: Online News
AlWaleed: Dubai World lenders made 'wrong assumptions'
December 3, 2009--Prince Alwaleed bin Talal has said that banks that loaned money to Dubai World should have understood the risks and differentiated between a corporate loan and a sovereign loan, Bloomberg has reported.
'When things go sour, you can't have some banks in the West going to Dubai and saying 'oops' and crying wolf and saying, 'You should have guaranteed those loans,'' the prince said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
Source: AME Info
IMF: Dubai World impact on banks 'manageable'
December 3, 2009--The director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia department has said that Dubai World's attempt to delay debt repayments, while slowing growth in the UAE, is 'contained and manageable' for banks that lent money to the state-run firm, Bloomberg has reported.
The UAE is not expected to require the IMF's financial support, as it has the resources to 'easily deal with these issues,' Masood Ahmed added.
Source: AME Info
Dubai World to restructure $26bn Nakheel, Limitless debt
December 1, 2009--Dubai World has announced that it has started constructive talks with banks to restructure $26bn of debt, including liabilities owed by units Nakheel World and Limitless World.
The process will not include Infinity World Holding, Istithmar World and Ports & Free Zone World (which includes DP World, Economic Zones World, P&O Ferries and Jebel Ali Free Zone), all of which are on a stable financial footing the company said in a statement.
Source: AME Info
Dubai ruler al-Maktoum plays up strength as Gulf markets fall
December 1, 2009--Gulf markets dropped again on Tuesday, taking little comfort from Dubai World’s plan to restructure about $26 billion of debt, while the rulers of Abu Dhabi and Dubai talked up their economic strength.
Dubai stocks fell a further 3.6 percent and the Abu Dhabi bourse lost 5.6 percent on their second trading day since Dubai last week asked creditors of Dubai World and its property arm Nakheel for a six-month delay on debt repayments. Qatar’s bourse was also more than 8 percent lower.
Source: Todays Zaman
Moody's: Dubai World restructuring unlikely to threaten sovereign credit of UAE and Abu Dhabi
December 1, 2009--Moody's Investors Service said that the recently announced restructuring of Dubai World's
liabilities is unlikely to threaten the credit quality of the government of Abu Dhabi and the federal government of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Both of these governments are rated Aa2 with a stable outlook.
Source: Middle East News Service
DP World drops almost 15% on Nasdaq Dubaiunlikely to threaten sovereign credit of UAE and Abu Dhabi
December 1, 2009--DP World, the Middle East's largest port operator and a unit of Dubai World, fell today by the maximum limit allowed by Nasdaq Dubai regulations, declining almost 15% to 37 cents.
The company said on Nov 26 that it was not part of the restructuring process announced for Dubai World.
Source: Middle East News Service
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