Dubai Gold And Commodities Exchange Weekly Views-June 6, 2010
June 6, 2010--Commodities Overview
Most financial markets are likely to remain on edge this week, rattled by a growing array of political, financial, and economic issues, problems, and uncertainties. Commodities markets will not be excluded from this nervous state of agitation. Prices may move sharply higher and lower across a band of commodities, as investors and commercial market participants struggle to ascertain where the world’s economic and political futures lie. The markets may not have any respite from this volatility this week. The underlying global economic and political landscape remains too overloaded with a large number of near-term perils to allow market participants to settle on any expectations for too long.
At present, economic conditions remain positive on a global basis, although the risks to continued recovery have risen sharply. Underlying economic conditions may not be deteriorating as much as investor expectations suggest, but it will be the reactions of nervous investors that determine market trends. The bifurcation of the U.S. dollar continues meanwhile, strengthening against the euro overall in a volatile fashion while remaining vulnerable against many other currencies. Investors remain interested in commodities, but are becoming increasingly nervous longs.
Currencies Overview
Currency market trends are likely to continue this week. The euro may test support levels while the pound and rupee consolidate in their recent respective trading ranges. The U.S. dollar and the yen meanwhile may see support from investors seeking safe haven assets amid turbulent financial market conditions and speculation over sovereign debt problems affecting euro zone member nations’ economic standings. Hungary’s recent comments late last week over its financial troubles helped spur increased concern over a broader span of European nations’ finances. More investor concern actually may have been generated by comments in Europe and London suggesting that European commercial banks’ financial positions are weakening to perilous levels. There was a broad sell-off in equity markets in both Europe and the United States as the euro fell to levels not seen since 2006. The U.S. dollar and the yen received a boost as investors moved toward safe haven currencies. While the recent trend in currency markets may remain in place this week, it should not be totally unexpected if volatility surges. Investor sentiment toward a broader scope of asset classes from bonds to equities to sovereign and bank debt insurance instruments may undergo large shifts.
Saudi Arabia to allow foreigners to own property
June 3, 2010--Foreigners will be allowed to own property in Saudi Arabia for the first time in one of four new metropolitan areas under construction in the kingdom, Bloomberg has reported. King Abdullah Economic City, known as KAEC and named after the head of state, will be the first freehold city in the kingdom as the country seeks new sources of investment.
The city is being built by Emaar Economic City, a company controlled by the Saudi Arabian government and Dubai's biggest property developer. "A lot of people want to invest in the Saudi market and see it as a frontier for real estate investment because of the population explosion here," Fahd Al-Rasheed, Emaar Economic City's CEO, told the news service.
Iran converts euros to dollars, ingots
June 3, 2010--The central bank of Iran plans to convert €45bn of its euro reserves into dollar and gold ingots, Press TV has reported.
Citing a report in Jaam-e Jam newspaper, the news service said the monetary plan was to be carried out in three phases, with the first stage of the programme already underway.
Qatar exchange tops GCC markets
June 3, 2010--The Doha-based Qatar Exchange (QE) outperformed all other GCC markets (except Saudi Arabia's Tadawul market, which is closed on Thursdays). The QE Market Index ended 0.98% higher at 6,803.25 points as 30 stocks advanced, two shares declined and nine ended flat.
General Insurance posted the largest advance, climbing 7.84% at QR55.00. Qatar Telecom (up 3.01%, at QR155.00) finished among the top gainers.
Dubai market ends lower
June 3, 2010--The Dubai Financial Market (DFM) started bullish on Thursday. It eventually lost momentum and closed 0.52% lower at 1,541.80 points. Market bellwether Emaar Properties fell by 0.62% and ended at Dhs3.20.
According to the Credit Suisse "Mena Real Estate Outlook" which was published today, real estate prices in Dubai's residential segment declined to the level of 2006 and could fall by 15-20% further in 2010. The Swiss bank also revised its price target for Emaar shares down by Dhs0.6 to Dhs5.19, but still says the shares would "outperform". Turnover was up at the DFM by 19% compared to Wednesday. During the first week of June the DFM Index lost 3.08%.
Kuwait market edges 0.36% higher
June 3, 2010--Investors in the northern Gulf state joined the slight regional upswing on Thursday and lifted the Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE) Market Index by 0.36% to 6,733.50 points. Bank stocks in particular helped the market in regaining some territory, as the KSE lost 1.13% during the first trading week in June.
The financial industry's bellwether National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) added 1.69%, closing at KD1.20. Banks performed stronger after China's largest bank ICBC said it looks at acquisitions in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, Thomson-Reuters reported.
Bahrain exchange advances slightly
June 3, 2010-- For the first time this week, the Bahrain Stock Exchange (BSE) ended in the green and closed 0.09% higher at 1,416.90 points. Islamic investment bank Gulf Finance House (GFH) advanced 3.85% and finished at BD0.135
The bank announced last Sunday that it will sell a 50 per cent stake in the Bahrain Financial Harbour to Emar Bahrain in order to pay back partly a $300m loan. The stake was estimated at $175m.
Iraq forecasts $70-$80 oil price
June 3, 2010--Iraq has said it expects international oil prices to fluctuate between $70 and $80 per barrel, Reuters has reported. "The price is not decreasing very much. Our expectation is that the oil price will not decrease to less than $65 to $70," deputy oil minister, Abdul Kareem Luaibi told reporters at a conference in Baghdad.
"According to our expectation, the price will fluctuate between $70 and $80," he said. "Although we consider it unfair, it is acceptable at the current time."
DGCX trades 139,565 futures contracts in May 2010
June 2, 2010: Volume on Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange (DGCX) recorded a 30% month-on-month increase in May, but a year-on-year decline of 12%, with 139,565 contracts traded, valued at US$ 7.64 billion. Of the total volume, 79,889 contracts were traded in DGCX currency futures, an increase of 128% on last year.
May volumes grew in comparison to the previous month. Gold, Silver and WTI crude oil futures traded 43,525, 5,446 and 10,705 contracts, a rise of 40%, 119% and 63% respectively. Euro/Dollar and Sterling/Dollar also witnessed month-on-month increases of 68% and 7% respectively, with 39,787 and 24,903 contracts traded. The slight decline in May compared with the same period last year was due to lower volumes in gold and WTI crude oil futures.
Eric Hasham, Chief Executive Officer, DGCX, said, "The higher volume in May compared with the previous month demonstrates the momentum that we have achieved to date this year in attracting more trading activity and participants to the exchange. It is evidence of sustained interest in DGCX as a platform for hedging and investment. This has been especially evident during recent volatility in the commodity and currency markets. As part of our efforts to expand our product offering and meet client’s requirements, DGCX is set to launch three new currency contracts this month."
DGCX will launch the Australian Dollar/US Dollar, Canadian Dollar/US Dollar and Swiss Franc/US Dollar on June 15, 2010. The Exchange recorded growth of 58% in year-to-date volume at 742,265 contracts, driven by a YTD rise of 132% in currency futures trading.
Jordan money supply increases
June 2, 2010--Jordan's money supply rose 8% year-on-year at the end of April, and increased 0.9% from March, Reuters has reported. The broadest measure of money supply, M2 rose to JD20.474bn ($28.8bn) at the end of April from JD18.947bn in the same period last year. Money supply growth almost halved to 9% in 2009 and supply stood at JD20.013bn at the end of December as banking lending shrank due to the global downturn.
Growth in money supply, an indicator of future inflation, has decelerated rapidly since peaking at a record 17.3% in 2008 when a sharp rise in oil and commodity prices spurred high inflation, the data showed.