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Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange Weekly Market Commentary- July 31, 2011
July 31, 2011-- Economic Data Overview
The August 1 week has two high points: the July employment report on Friday, and the Treasury's quarterly refunding package on Wednesday.
There are a number of major central bank monetary policy announcements on the calendar, although the FOMC meeting is not until the following week so the coming week includes the traditional press blackout period for one week in advance of Committee discussions.
Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release its statement in the overnight hours of Monday-Tuesday. The Bank's policy is currently on hold.
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets in a two-day session on Wednesday and Thursday but is not expected to change the current overnight rate of 0.50% or the level of assets purchased at GBP 200 billion.
The ECB Governing Council will release its decision on Thursday. It is possible there will be another hike to the current refi rate of 1.50%, most probably 25 basis points if the Bank opts to increase the rate.
The Bank of Japan's Policy Board meets on Thursday and Friday. No change is expected in the current highly accommodative policy.
The second quarter earnings season also continues with a large number of releases on the calendar. These will include a number of companies in the insurance industry and from utilities providers.
The report on the employment situation in July is due on Friday and may answer the question as to whether the slowing in economic activity was temporary or will persist as the summer progresses. After two months of quite disappointing numbers, payrolls are expected to show more substantial gains. However, these are still going to be consistent with subpar increases for this stage in a recovery. The unemployment rate probably will not reflect any fundamental improvement.
Labor market data in the days leading up to the employment report will include the ADP National Employment Report for July on Wednesday. The data did a good job signaling the size of the change in payrolls in May, but had a big miss in June. As a result, analysts will be cautious in taking the ADP report at face value.
The Challenger report on layoff intentions in July on Wednesday will probably take a turn higher. A few companies -- among them Goldman-Sachs, Credit Suisse, HSBC, Cisco and Lockheed Martin -- have made some big announcements this month. Government layoffs also continue as state and local authorities are still cutting budgets. However, some of these will be in the form of positions not filled and voluntary retirements, and some will happen over a period of months.
The Monster Worldwide Employment Index for July will be released in the early hours on Thursday morning. The index has made some steady gains for most of the last six months. The reading of 146 in June was the highest since 150 in October 2008, and index levels are moving above those that marked the trough of the recession. There is still a way to go before returning to pre-recession conditions.
Initial claims for the week ended July 30 on Thursday should show that levels remain somewhat elevated, but are starting to move lower. However, recent layoff announcements in some industries suggest that claims levels are going to remain high for some time yet.
The ISM indexes for manufacturing and non-manufacturing for July are due Monday and Wednesday. The performance for some of the regional surveys of factory activity in July sent mixed signals, but on balance it looks like manufacturing is starting to regain its footing. The available data for service sector revenues also suggest that non-manufacturing activity will start to look a bit firmer as the second half of 2011 starts off. Still, there is room for improvement in both sectors.
Factory orders for June on Thursday will...Read more
Source: DGCX
UAE central bank says dollar peg 'steady and consistent'
July 30, 2011--The UAE central bank has said the country's policy of pegging the dirham to the US dollar is "steady and consistent" even as US lawmakers remained deadlocked over the country's debt limit, Bloomberg has reported.
Saturday, "No fear on the US dollar, although it is exposed to price fluctuations as it happens with all the major currencies," the apex bank said. "Despite the fact that the central bank foreign reserves are mostly denominated in US dollars, they are invested mostly in non-US assets."
Source: AME Info
DGCX Sets New Daily Volume Record on July 27
July 28, 2011-Exchange Trades 21,980 contracts on July 27, valued at US $ 1.033 billion
Daily Indian Rupee recorded the highest ever volume of 19,596 contracts on July 27, valued at US $886.4 million
Total open interest of 23,489 achieved on July 27, 2011 is the highest ever since inception
Trading on the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX) surged to a new daily volume high of 21,980 contracts, valued at US $1.033 billion on Wednesday, July 27, 2011. The new record surpasses the previous best of 20,112 contracts set on July 21, 2011.
While, trading activity on DGCX's Indian Rupee/US Dollar futures continues to grow rapidly, with a new daily volume record of 19,596 contracts achieved on July 27, 2011, with a value of US $886.4 million. The previous record was on June 23, 2011 with 15,509 contracts.
DGCX also reached its highest ever daily total open interest of 23,489 on the same day.
Source: DGCX
Qatar's top banks help equity market to stabilise
July 28, 2011--The Doha-based QE Index finished flat at 8,377.00 points. Qatar National Bank added 0.78% to reach QR141.90. The country's second lender Commercial Bank of Qatar gained 1.93%, ending at QR74.00.
Doha Insurance surged 4.38% to reach QR29.80. Weak performing industry shares, however, weighed on the index. Industries Qatar declined 1.22%, finishing at QR138.20. Regarding the Holy month of Ramadan, the QE management announced today that "Trading hours will remain unchanged from 09:30 to 13:15 with a pre-opening session starting at 09:00 and ending at 09:30. Settlement and Delivery-versus-Payment service times will be unchanged as well."
Source: AME Info
Kuwait market falls for the second day straight
July 28, 2011--There was no let-up in selling pressure at the KSE, whose Market Index dipped 0.48% to 6,036 points. Shares of Dar Al-Thuraya Real Estate posted the largest advance, closing 8.6% higher at KD0.063. Munshaat Real Estate,
on the other hand, lost the most (down 9.25% at KD0.0245). Year-to-date, the KSE plummeted 13.22%, the highest loss among GCC equity indices.
Source: AME Info
Dana Gas shares soar on takeover rumors
July 28, 2011--The Abu Dhabi bourse ADX fell by half a percent and closed at 2,627.99 points on Thursday. Dana Gas, based in the Emirate of Sharjah, gained the most (up five percent at Dhs0.61)
amid media rumors that "Vallares, the investment vehicle backed by Nat Rothschild and ex-BP boss Tony Hayward, is exploring a bid for Dana Gas," The National reports. Gulf Pharmaceutical Industries, known as Julphar (the old name of the Emirate of Ras al-Khaima) ended flat at Dhs2.11. Earlier in the day, Julphar reported a profit for the second quarter of Dhs102.4m, a 17.9% year-on-year increase.
Source: AME Info
Dubai market defends 1,500 points-level
July 28, 2011--The DFM General Index ended 0.09% lower at 1,506.13 points. While bank Emirates NBD exted to rally (up 2.14% at Dhs4.29),
shares of Emaar Properties declined further, closing 1.40% lower at Dhs2.82). Emaar were also the most liquid stocks. Around 64.47m shares were traded, valued at Dhs77.47m.
Source: AME Info
Kuwait inflation reaches 15.4%
July 28, 2011--According to data from Kuwait's Central Statistics office, the country's annual inflation has slowed to a ten-month low of 5% in
June helped by a fall in food prices, Reuters has reported. Inflation in the world's fourth-largest oil exporter has been hovering above 5% since the beginning of this year, well below double-digit levels seen in 2008.
Source: AME Info
Saudi investors book profits ahead of Ramadan
July 27, 2011-The Tadawul All Share Index, known as Tasi, declined half a percent lower to close at 6,445.17 points.
Sabic declined for the third day straight, finishing 1.25% lower at SR104.25. Insurance firms supported the index somewhat such as AXA Cooperative (up 4.55% at SR57.50) and Sagr Insurance (1.45% higher at SR20.95).
Source: AME Info
DP World gains slightly on possible U. S. listing plans
July 27, 2011--The FTSE NASDAQ Dubai UAE 20 index declined 0.42% to 1,614.39 points as around 2.14m shares changed hands.
Dubai Gold Securities (up 0.55% at $160.83) gained the most, while DP surged 0.33% to $12.24 amid low trading volumes. DP World CEO Mohammad Sharaf announced yesterday that the global port operator might eye a listing at U. S. equity markets, Gulf News reported. DP World dual-listed its shares at London's LSE on June 1st, which had no positive share price impact as yet. Interior designer Depa Ltd. and jewelry trader Damas ended both flat at $0.51 and $0.11, respectively.
Source: AME Info
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