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Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange Weekly Market Commentary
March 4, 2012--Economic Data Overview
Gold fell sharply last week as a lack of physical demand to sustain the well-established gains of recent months was undermined by the fact that the mention of a QE3 program was to be omitted by Ben Bernanke in statements.
Gold bulls want low US bond yields and a weak dollar. The prospect of continued low interest rates and but no further new bond purchases had the impact of capping bond markets and supporting the dollar.
European leaders have signed a growth agenda and a deficit control treaty. "We're not out of the economic crisis yet but we are turning the page of the financial crisis," French President said this week, after the latest summit on the European crisis. The private debt issue which asks institutions to take a 70% haircut on Greek debt has yet to be agreed. A further Greek related issue is the news that credit default swaps will not be triggered by this move. This had the impact of allowing investors to move funds out of safe haven markets like treasuries and gold.
European Finance ministers will hold a conference call on March 9 to gauge the take-up of the debt swap offer. Failure to accept could lead to even bigger losses for European banks. This week's ECB debt tenders had a take-up of an estimated 215 billion euro as banks continue to repair balance sheets with cheap ECB funds. This type of easing within the financial system helps European banks but may do very little to filter credit through the broader economic system. There is an increased consensus in the market that due to the continued debt tenders being issued by the ECB, interest rates in Europe will stay at 1% through this year.
The problem of generating growth in economies which are already crippled, by imposing further austerity measures also showed signs of breaking this week. Spain independently increased their budget deficit target from 4.4% to 5.8% of GDP and told reports it was a sovereign decision made by Spain upon which they did not consult with European authorities
Source: Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange (DGCX)
DP World dives over three percent as worries over possible instabilities in the Middle East loom
March 01, 2012--United Arab Emirates: The FTSE NASDAQ Dubai UAE 20 Index closed at 1735.70, off 1.76% from the previous close. Dubai Ports (DP) World, the world's third largest container port operator, retreated 3.17% to $11.90.
DP World hit a seven-month high last Monday, but meanwhile many analysts increasingly express worries the sharp surge in GCC stock markets in the last two months might fickle due to a possible escalation in the row between the West and Iran on Tehran's nuclear energy program. "One of the challenges for markets is the rise in oil prices, Gary Dugan, CIO Private Banking at Emirates NBD, said in his weekly market commentary published Wednesday. "In the last few days oil prices have risen to a nine-month high. In our view higher oil prices are here to stay. Much has being made of the potential greater geopolitical risks but the 'high' oil prices are also due to an ongoing fundamental imbalance between supply and demand."
Source: AME Info
Kuwait market extends its step-by-step rally
March 01, 2012--The KSE Market Index added 0.11% to reach 6,133.6 Thursday.
Fujairah Cement Industries Co. gained the most (up nine percent), while most banks underperformed, such as Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait (ABK), ending down 1.53%. The northern Gulf state's largest lender by assets National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) gained 1.7%. Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects the Kuwait economy's to grow by 5% in 2012, up from 4.1% in the previous year.
Source: AME Info
DP World dives over three percent as worries over possible instabilities in the Middle East loom
March 01, 2012--The FTSE NASDAQ Dubai UAE 20 Index closed at 1735.70, off 1.76% from the previous close.
Dubai Ports (DP) World, the world's third largest container port operator, retreated 3.17% to $11.90. DP World hit a seven-month high last Monday, but meanwhile many analysts increasingly express worries the sharp surge in GCC stock markets in the last two months might fickle due to a possible escalation in the row between the West and Iran on Tehran's nuclear energy program. "One of the challenges for markets is the rise in oil prices, Gary Dugan, CIO Private Banking at Emirates NBD, said in his weekly market commentary published Wednesday. "In the last few days oil prices have risen to a nine-month high. In our view higher oil prices are here to stay. Much has being made of the potential greater geopolitical risks but the ‘high’ oil prices are also due to an ongoing fundamental imbalance between supply and demand."
SOurce: AME Info
Sorouh Real Estate publishes corporate governance report, shares dip slightly
March 01, 2012--In contrast to the Dubai bourse, the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) remained buoyant Thursday, ending up half a percent at 2,623.87 points depite negative market breadth (seven shares advanced, 18 declined).
United Arab Bank gained the most (10% higher), while RAK Ceramic posted the largest decline (off 8.90%). First Gulf Bank, the UAE's fourth largest lender by assets, was the most liquid share, gaining one percent to reach Dhs21.40. Sorouh Real Estate fell 1.60%. Earlier in the Sorouh published its annual corporate governance (cg) report. UAE markets upgraded their cg standards in recent years. Listed firms are required to report every year to report about their cg activities, such as increasing transparency in management operations or social and ecological responsability. "CG is key to increase trust into capital markets among share- and stakeholders, the public and employees and to attract foreign direct investment," said Dr. Nasser Saidi, Chief Economist and Head of External Relations of the DIFC Authority and founding Director and Board Member of the DIFC-based Institute of Corporate Governance Hawkamah.
Source: AME Info
Dubai market declines --profit booking or halt of the rally?
March 01, 2012--The local Dubai bourse showed some form of exhaustion Thursday, closing 1.64% lower at 1,702.
But losses among blue chips were not immense and market breadth turned not in deep red territory like during previous market declines, as eight shares advanced and 19 declined. Emaar Properties (off 2.85%) and Arabtec Construction (down 3.60%) weighed on the gauge. According to analysts, the sharp rise in GCC indexes (Dubai added 25% year-to-date) was mostly based on rising oil prices, among other factors, but the global research team of Bank of America Merrill Lynch warned in a market study 'World at a glance, March' released earlier today: "In some sense, the rise in oil prices feels similar to last year, when rising growth expectations were dashed by high oil prices as well. Similar to 2011, the most recent surge in oil is not the result of strong demand growth but Middle East supply conditions stemming from tensions about Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, as well as Syria. In this US election year, higher oil and gasoline prices will be a continual focus, potentially dampening sentiment and spending appetite." At the DFM, around 565m shares were traded, valued at Dhs695.7m.
Source: AME Info
Lackluster Bahrain Bourse closes unchanged
March 01, 2012--Bahrain: Manama's market measure, the Bahrain All Share Index, ended off 0.06% Thursday, closing at 1,147.99 points.
Bahrain Duty Free Shop Complex was the only stock which added value (up 2.19%). National Bank of Bahrain closed 0.90% lower at BD0.57. Despite today's sluggish trading, the Bahrain gauge defended its tiny year-to-date gain during this week. Since January 1st, the Bahrain All Shares Index gained 0.40%.
Source: AME Info
NBAD prepared for long haul on ETF fund
March 1, 2012--Investors had little enthusiasm for National Bank of Abu Dhabi's exchange-traded fund (ETF) last year.
High expenses and a lack of appetite for the recently introduced OneShare Dow Jones UAE 25 ETF caused the investment vehicle to report a widened full-year loss of Dh3.06 million, from a loss of Dh726,974 the previous year. The fund was launched in April 2010.
Source: The National
Saudi Stock Exchange advances on bullish Emirates NBD statements
February 29, 2012--The Riyadh-based measure Tadawul finished Wednesday 0.80% higher at 7,226.43 points as oil prices remained on the bullish path.
Earlier in the day Emirates NBD's CIO Private Banking Gary Dugan said in his weekly comment: "The rise in oil prices is good news for GCC economic growth and financial markets. The Saudi Taduwal index in particular could have a lot further to rise (...) All the hallmarks of previous rampant bull markets are in place again." The influential British private banker from Dubai added: "The valuation of the market remains at a reasonable level. The prospective PE of the market at around 14.0x is not that cheap relative to global markets. However for local investors maybe only a PE multiple closer to 18.0x would represent a point at which they might pull back from further purchases. The potential is for a further 30% upside in the market." Market bellwether Sabic closed 0.78% higher at SR101.50. Shares of Abdullah A. M. Khodari Sons Co. slipped half a percent to SR53.75. Earlier in the day, the real estate contractor announced the signing of an Islamic credit agreement for additional facilities with Saudi Arabia's largest lender National Commercial Bank (NCB) on Tuesday. The facilities are worth SR567m. Al Khodari Sons said in a statement: "The purpose of these credit facilities is to provide bonding commitments and to fund capital requirements and working capital needs for the company's specific projects."
Source: AME Info
Insurers, industrials help Qatar Exchange to regain territory
February 29, 2012--The QE 20 Index advanced half a percent to reach 8,746.98 points.
Market heavyweight Industries Qatar gained 1.44%. Qatar Insurance soared two percent. United Development Company, the real estate firm behind man-made Pearl Qatar, closed unchanged. Earlier in the day, UDC announced the Annual General Assembly has approved the distribution of 64.35k shares as bonus shares at the rate of four shares for each ten shares (40 percent of the capital), resulting in an increase of UDC's capital of QR2.25bn.
Source: AME Info
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