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GCC retail sector overall will see 15.7% YoY growth in 2022-Alpen Capital
November 15, 2022--Duty free sales are also soaring in the GCC in 2022
The GCC retail industry will surpass pre-pandemic levels in 2022 as it returns to steady growth after a period of disruption, with 36% year-on-year growth expected for FIFA World Cup 2022 host Qatar.
Mega events including the World Cup, the return of tourism and population growth are among factors cited in the return to growth, with Duty Free Sales at airports also expected to grow by 65.5% year-on-year to reach $2.2 billion in 2022 and further projected to reach $3.0 billion by 2026, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.4%.
GCC Economies Expected to Expand by 6.9% in 2022
October 31, 2022--Investing in green growth could help GCC GDP grow to over US$ 13 trillion by 2050
The economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are projected to expand by 6.9 %in 2022 before moderating to 3.7% and 2.4% in 2023 and 2024, according to the new World Bank Gulf Economic Update (GEU).
Easing of pandemic restrictions, and positive developments in the hydrocarbon market drove strong recoveries in 2021 and 2022 across the GCC. Strong economic recovery and supply chain bottlenecks raised inflation in the GCC to an average rate of 2.1% in 2021- up from 0.8% in 2020.
view the World Bank-Gulf Economic Update Green Growth Opportunities in the GCC
IMF-Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia: Mounting Challenges, Decisive Times
October 31, 2022--Summary:
In a worsening global environment, economies in the Middle East and Central Asia are being buffeted by a confluence of shocks: a global slowdown, high and volatile food and energy prices, faster and stronger than expected tightening of financial conditions, and the risk of fragmentation.
The region's emerging market and middle-income economies (EM&MIs) and low-income countries (LICs) are hit hard, with many facing curtailed access to market financing, while oil-exporting countries are being buffered by still-high energy prices.
The adverse impact of Russia's war in Ukraine on the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) has thus far been milder than expected. Still, the CCA's strong ties to Russia entail substantial risks to the region's outlook. The most urgent policy challenge for all countries is to tackle the cost-of-living crisis by restoring price stability, protecting vulnerable groups through targeted support, and ensuring food security. Policy trade-offs in EM&MIs and LICs have become more pronounced than ever, as they also need to preserve debt sustainability and financial stability. Oil exporters have the opportunity to maximize the benefits of the oil windfall by building buffers and advancing their diversification plans. CCA countries should carefully assess the magnitude and durability of the initial spillovers from the war in Ukraine and adjust their policy mix accordingly. Limited policy space in many countries raises the urgency of structural reforms to bolster economic growth while transforming economies to become more resilient, sustainable, diversified, and inclusive.
GCC economies set to grow at 6.5% this year
October 20, 2022--Economies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are set to grow by 6.5% in 2022 making them one of the strongest performing regions of the world this year, and delivering their strongest growth in at least a decade, HSBC said in a new report.
The annual HSBC Economist Roadshow, which is in the Middle East, said for 2023 the growth forecast for GCC is 5%. In Bahrain, GDP growth of 4.3% is forecast for 2022 and 2.8% in 2023.
Promoting Inclusive Growth in the Middle East and North Africa: Challenges and Opportunities in a Post-Pandemic World
October 11, 2022-Summary:
Despite some pre-pandemic gains in poverty reduction, literacy, and lifespans, many economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have struggled to ensure that the benefits of economic development and diversification accrue equitably to all segments of their populations.
Among the main issues that remain unresolved are the high share of inactive youth (who are not engaged in employment, education, or training); large gaps in economic opportunities for women; fragmented social protection systems; and underdeveloped private sectors with tight regulation, absence of a level playing field, and limited access to credit that stifle the creation of new firms and growth, employment, and incomes.
The COVID-19 pandemic not only risks wiping out some of the progress made in the region over the past decades, but could also exacerbate inequality in a durable way. There is evidence that the impact of the pandemic has been uneven across groups, with the recession having a disproportionate effect on the low-skilled, the young, women, and migrant workers in employment and incomes. With widespread inequality, high unemployment, and the expected entry of 27 million young people into the labor force over the next 10 years, countries across the MENA region need to evolve their economic models to boost job creation and make sure that the benefits of economic development are shared more widely among all their citizens. This book's objective is to reassess the inclusive growth agenda in the MENA region in light of the rapidly changing pandemic-influenced world. It argues that countries need to embrace global trade and technological advances and evolving demographics at home as an opportunity to successfully implement policies that foster higher and more inclusive growth. It underscores that a return to the old social contract is neither desirable nor feasible. The book presents a comprehensive view of policies suited to the regional context that would boost job-rich and inclusive growth within a resilient macroeconomic policy framework. Its goal is to provide guidance to policymakers in the region to frame how best to promote inclusive growth, including in their engagement with all stakeholders.
MENA Economies Grow by 5.5% But Benefits are Uneven
October 5, 2022--Energy, food inflation, higher global interest rates add stress for oil importers
The economies of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are expected to grow by 5.5% this year-the fastest rate since 2016-followed by a slowing of growth to 3.5% in 2023.
Yet this growth is uneven across the region, as countries, still struggling to overcome the lasting effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, face jolting new shocks from higher oil and food prices brought on by the war in Ukraine, rising global interest rates, and slowdowns in the United States, China, and the Euro area.
The World Bank's latest economic update, titled "A New State of Mind: Greater Transparency and Accountability in the Middle East and North Africa," finds that the region's oil exporting countries are benefitting from high hydrocarbon prices, but oil importing nations confront different circumstances. Oil importers face heightened stress and risk from higher import bills, especially for food and energy, and tightening fiscal space as they spend more on price subsidies to cushion the pain of price rises on their populations.
Inflation-at-Risk in in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia
September 2, 2022--Summary:
This paper investigates inflation risks for 12 Middle East and Central Asia countries, with an equal share of commodities exporters and importers. The empirical strategy leverages the recent developments in the estimation of macroeconomic risks and uses a semi-parametric approach that balances well flexibility and robustness for density projections.
The paper uncovers interesting features of inflation dynamics in the region, including the role of backward versus forward-looking drivers, non-linearities, and heterogeneous and delayed exchange rate pass-through. The results have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy and central bank communication in the Middle East and Central Asia and emerging markets in general.
Saudi Arabia to Grow at Fastest Pace in a Decade
August 17, 2022--Maintaining reform momentum is pivotal for prosperity in the long run
Saudi Arabia is likely to be one of the world's fastest-growing economies this year as sweeping pro-business reforms and a sharp rise in oil prices and production power recovery from a-pandemic-induced recession in 2020.
Gross domestic product is expected to expand by 7.6 percent, the fastest growth in almost a decade, according to our recent Article IV consultation report.
Despite higher prices for imported commodities, inflation will remain contained at 2.8 percent in 2022 as the central bank tightens policy in line with the US Federal Reserve. Public finances and the external position will strengthen substantially thanks to increased non-oil revenue and higher proceeds from oil exports. Reserve buffers will remain ample.
Saudi gold ETFs fell by $2.1mln in June; year-to-date global demand still strong
July 12, 2022--Gold has soared 10 percent in six weeks, but shares in gold mining companies have fallen and analysts believe potential investors might be concerned the precious metal's surge will not last.
Gold investing faces headwinds like high interest rates, strong US dollar, says World Gold Council
Mideast Stocks: Gulf bourses rebound from selloff, follow Asia higher
June 21, 2022--Saudi Arabia's benchmark index gained 1.9%
Most stock markets in the Gulf rose on Tuesday, rebounding from a recent selloff, with the Qatari index on track to snap four sessions of losses.
The markets also followed Asian shares higher. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1.3%, edging up from a more than five-week low and set for its best day in around two weeks.
