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MENA economies to expand at a slower pace in 2023-IMF
April 14, 2023--For GCC oil exporters higher prices will offset impact of lower growth
Growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies is projected to slow to 3.1% this year, from 5.3% last year, according to the IMF.
"Despite the series of global shocks, the MENA region surprised on the upside last year. We estimate that real GDP grew by 5.3%, reflecting strong domestic demand and a rebound in oil production," said Jihad Azour, director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department, at a briefing at IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings on Thursday.
Growth Slows for Most MENA Economies Amid Double-Digit Food Inflation
April 6, 2023-Rising food prices will have an impact on future generations
Economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are expected to grow at a slower pace in 2023, as double-digit food inflation adds pressure on poorer households and the impact of food insecurity can span generations, according to the World Bank's latest economic update.
Titled "Altered Destinies: The Long-Term Effects of Rising Prices and Food Insecurity in the Middle East and North Africa," the report forecasts MENA's GDP will slow to 3.0% in 2023, from 5.8% in 2022. Oil exporters, who benefited from a windfall in 2022, will experience slower growth, but a large gap remains between high-income countries and the rest of the region. Real GDP per capita growth, a better proxy for living standards, is expected to slow down to 1.6% in 2023 from 4.4% in 2022.
Inflation in the region rose dramatically in 2022, especially in countries that experienced currency depreciations.
Gulf economies to slow this year on sluggish oil demand
January 24, 2023--Overall growth in the six GCC economies was forecast to average 3.3% and 2.8% this year and next respectively, the Jan. 9-23 poll showed, down from 4.2% and 3.3% in the previous poll.
Economies in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will grow this year at half the rate of 2022 as oil revenues take a hit from an expected mild global slowdown, according to the median view from a Reuters poll of economists.
Crude oil prices, a major driver for Gulf economies, are down more than a third from last year's highs and were expected to remain under pressure this year over fears of a recession in major economies sapping demand.
World Bank-Weak Governance in MENA Region Worsens Deepening Land Crisis As Commodity Prices Surge Again, MENA Countries Can Draw Lessons from the Past
Our latest Regional Economic Outlook examines how MENA countries are responding to high commodity prices and protecting the vulnerable. This task is much harder for commodity importers, where fiscal space is limited. In contrast, the challenge for commodity exporters is to leverage the surplus from high energy prices to build buffers against future shocks and make progress with their transition and diversification plans.
Gulf Countries Should Maintain Reform Momentum, Despite Oil Boom
Throughout its history, the GCC region has experienced distinct periods of rising oil revenues. During those periods, countries deepened their dependency on oil and gas, increased wages and hirings in the public sector, expanded social safety nets, and ramped up capital expenditure. During 2002-08 and 2010-14 for example, the public sector wage bill increased by 51 and 40 percent respectively. Mideast Stocks: Major stock markets extend losses as oil falls GCC retail sector overall will see 15.7% YoY growth in 2022-Alpen Capital GCC Economies Expected to Expand by 6.9% in 2022 view the World Bank-Gulf Economic Update Green Growth Opportunities in the GCC
IMF-Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia: Mounting Challenges, Decisive Times The adverse impact of Russia's war in Ukraine on the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) has thus far been milder than expected. Still, the CCA's strong ties to Russia entail substantial risks to the region's outlook. The most urgent policy challenge for all countries is to tackle the cost-of-living crisis by restoring price stability, protecting vulnerable groups through targeted support, and ensuring food security. Policy trade-offs in EM&MIs and LICs have become more pronounced than ever, as they also need to preserve debt sustainability and financial stability. Oil exporters have the opportunity to maximize the benefits of the oil windfall by building buffers and advancing their diversification plans. CCA countries should carefully assess the magnitude and durability of the initial spillovers from the war in Ukraine and adjust their policy mix accordingly. Limited policy space in many countries raises the urgency of structural reforms to bolster economic growth while transforming economies to become more resilient, sustainable, diversified, and inclusive.
January 18, 2023--New World Bank Report Calls for Holistic Land Policy Reforms
Weak governance exacerbates the deepening land crisis in the Middle East and North Africa region, according to a new World Bank report that urges broad reforms to improve land use and access amid increasing stress from climate change and population growth.
Titled "Land Matters: Can Better Governance and Management of Scarcity Prevent a Looming Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa?", the report shows how continuing land deterioration in a region that is 84 percent desert worsens water scarcity issues that threaten food security and economic development.
December 7, 2022--Policymakers have been more restrained in their response to surging commodity prices this time around
The current commodity price boom is affecting the region's commodity exporters and importers differently.
Commodity exporters are benefiting from a marked improvement in their terms of trade, while commodity importers are feeling the pain of higher imported energy and food prices. A key question is how countries are managing this boom relative to past experience, particularly as the current commodity price shock is occurring in a global and regional context that is distinct from previous episodes.
November 29, 2022--Additional revenues from higher energy prices could help the region achieve long-term prosperity by maintaining the recent reform momentum
GDP growth for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries-Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE-is expected to more than double, reaching 6.5 percent in 2022, according to our recent Policy Paper.
Surging commodity prices have limited the spillovers from the war in Ukraine and the impact from tighter global financial conditions, and have allowed for a more positive outlook for GCC economies.
November 15, 2022--Saudi Arabia's benchmark index fell 0.6%
Major Gulf stock markets fell in early trade on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session as oil prices slid.
Crude prices-a key catalyst for the region's financial markets- dropped as rising COVID-19 cases in China sparked fears of lower fuel consumption from the world's top crude oil importer and after OPEC cut its 2022 global demand forecast.
November 15, 2022--Duty free sales are also soaring in the GCC in 2022
The GCC retail industry will surpass pre-pandemic levels in 2022 as it returns to steady growth after a period of disruption, with 36% year-on-year growth expected for FIFA World Cup 2022 host Qatar.
Mega events including the World Cup, the return of tourism and population growth are among factors cited in the return to growth, with Duty Free Sales at airports also expected to grow by 65.5% year-on-year to reach $2.2 billion in 2022 and further projected to reach $3.0 billion by 2026, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.4%.
October 31, 2022--Investing in green growth could help GCC GDP grow to over US$ 13 trillion by 2050
The economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are projected to expand by 6.9 %in 2022 before moderating to 3.7% and 2.4% in 2023 and 2024, according to the new World Bank Gulf Economic Update (GEU).
Easing of pandemic restrictions, and positive developments in the hydrocarbon market drove strong recoveries in 2021 and 2022 across the GCC. Strong economic recovery and supply chain bottlenecks raised inflation in the GCC to an average rate of 2.1% in 2021- up from 0.8% in 2020.
October 31, 2022--Summary:
In a worsening global environment, economies in the Middle East and Central Asia are being buffeted by a confluence of shocks: a global slowdown, high and volatile food and energy prices, faster and stronger than expected tightening of financial conditions, and the risk of fragmentation.
The region's emerging market and middle-income economies (EM&MIs) and low-income countries (LICs) are hit hard, with many facing curtailed access to market financing, while oil-exporting countries are being buffered by still-high energy prices.