Interest Rate Controls, Capital Flow Restrictions, and Other Potentially Costly Financial Market Regulatory Tools
April 6 2020--With the surge in public debt in the wake of the global financial crisis, financial repression-administrative restrictions on interest rates, credit allocation, capital movements, and other financial operations-has come back on the agenda.
In our recent working paper, we argue that countries would be better-off without financial repression.
Source: IMF
IMF An Early View of the Economic Impact of the Pandemic in 5 Charts
April 6, 2020--The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed the world into a recession. For 2020 it will be worse than the global financial crisis. The economic damage is mounting across all countries, tracking the sharp rise in new infections and containment measures put in place by governments.
China was the first country to experience the full force of the disease, with confirmed active cases at over 60,000 by mid-February. European countries such as Italy, Spain, and France are now in acute phases of the epidemic, followed by the United States where the number of active cases is growing rapidly. In many emerging market and developing economies, the epidemic appears to be just beginning.
Source: IMF
Graphic: 'Sustainable' funds a safer harbour in coronavirus market meltdown
April 6, 2020--Funds focused on buying stocks that score well on environmental, social and governance-related metrics proved a safer harbour for investors during the coronavirus-fuelled market rout last month, Morningstar data shows.
With trillions of dollars wiped off stock market values during March, there were few places to hide completely for funds only allowed to bet on rising prices, yet investors in funds focused on environmental, social and governance metrics (ESG) lost less money than their non-ESG peers.
Source: reuters.com
The economic effects of COVID-19 around the world
April 3, 2020--Latest developments:
More than 6.6 million Americans filed unemployment claims last week.
The Asian Development Bank warns the global cost of the outbreak might reach $4.1 trillion.
More than 900,000 people have lost their jobs in Spain amid the coronavirus lockdown.
Half of jobs in Africa are at risk due to the pandemic
With more than 1 million confirmed cases of COVID-19, businesses are coping with lost revenue and disrupted supply chains as factory shutdowns and quarantine measures spread across the globe, restricting movement and business activity.
Here are a few ways the outbreak is sending ripples around the world.
Global financial shocks
As the world grapples with the coronavirus, the economic impact is mounting-with the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors having a conference call on 23 March to discuss how to address the emergency.
Source: World Economic Forum (WEF)
March 2020 Report Into Cryptocurrency Exchanges (From CryptoCompare)
April 3, 2020--13 March Market Crash Saw Highest Daily Volumes Ever
The massive market crash on March 12-13 saw daily volumes hit $75.9bn in a single day (13 March)-the single greatest daily volume recorded in cryptoasset history.
Most of this figure came from lower-tier exchanges ($54.3bn), with volume from Top Tier exchanges totalling $21.6bn (28.5%)-one of the highest Top-Tier volumes recorded.
Spot Volumes Have Surged in Q1 2020
Since December 2019, volumes from Top-Tier exchanges have continued to increase month on month. In March, volume from many of the largest Top Tier exchanges increased 35% on average (vs February).
Derivatives Volumes Hit All-Time-High in March 2020
Source: blog.bitmex.com
Cboe Global Markets Reports March 2020 Trading Volume
April 3, 2020--All business lines post year-over-year increases: Options ADV up 69%, Futures up 35%, U.S. Equities up 129%, European Equities up 29% and Global FX up 43%
Cboe's four options exchanges combined set a new monthly ADV record with nearly 12 million contracts traded
S&P 500 Index (SPX) options set a new monthly total volume record with more than 43.4 million contracts traded.
Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) options and futures ADV up 112% and 36% year-over-year, respectively
Cboe FX set a new monthly ADNV record with nearly $55 billion in notional value
Source: Cboe Global Markets, Inc
RI Survey: Pandemic could be tipping point for ESG
Poll reveals a fascinating array of reactions to the Covid-19 crisis
The coronavirus pandemic could prove a tipping point for ESG, according to roughly two-thirds of the respondents to Responsible Investor's recent survey on the outbreak and ESG.
And more than three-quarters say it helps the case for long-termism-although a narrow majority said no lessons have been learnt from the global financial crisis.
They are some of the top line findings of the snap survey, which ran last week as the sustainability investment field started to absorb the full implications of the crisis.
The survey was in a simple yes/no format, so there's limited scope for detailed interpretation-but it gives a sense of ESG market sentiment.
Source: responsible-investor.com
First-of-a-kind ocean debt swap proves huge success
March 30, 2020--Innovative deal structure can now hit the capital markets with benchmark blue bonds
A pioneering $21.6m (€19.3m) sovereign debt restructuring deal to finance marine conservation in the Seychelles has met its impact targets with a third of the Seychelles' ocean now designated as 'protected'.
Source: responsible-investor.com
The World Federation of Exchanges warns against short-selling bans
March 30, 2020--The World Federation of Exchanges ("WFE"), the global industry group for exchanges and CCPs, has today issued a statement, criticising recent bans on short-selling as damaging to markets and failing to achieve their desired effect. WFE CEO Nandini Sukumar said:
"Banning short-selling interferes with price formation, thereby increasing uncertainty.
That can only artificially amplify volatility and probability of default, the opposite effect to that claimed, and hampers the ability of markets to serve the real economy. It is not-and never has been -true that bans have any other, positive effect on market activity or price levels."
Unlike circuit breakers and other safeguards put in place by exchanges to slow markets down in times of stress, short-selling bans inhibit orderly markets rather than promote them.
Source: world-exchanges.org
OECD updates G20 summit on outlook for global economy
March 27, 2020--Efforts to contain virus and save lives should be intensified, and governments should plan stronger, more coordinated measures to absorb growing economic blow
Increasingly stringent containment measures needed to slow the spread of the Coronavirus (Covid-19) will necessarily lead to significant short-term declines in GDP for many major economies, according to new OECD projections.
OECD Secretary-General Angel GurrĂa, in preparation to the G20 Virtual Summit that took place yesterday, unveiled the latest OECD estimates showing that the lockdown will directly affect sectors amounting to up to one third of GDP in the major economies. For each month of containment, there will be a loss of 2 percentage points in annual GDP growth. The tourism sector alone faces an output decrease as high as 70%. Many economies will fall into recession. This is unavoidable, as we need to continue fighting the pandemic, while at the same time putting all the efforts to be able to restore economic normality as fast as possible.
Source: OECD