COVID-19: Potential impact on the global economy and gold performance
May 14, 2020--The COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing economic lockdowns have slashed global growth forecasts for 2020.
With varied expectations around the speed of the economic recovery, we analyse the potential performance of gold across four hypothetical scenarios provided by Oxford Economics:1
1) swift recovery
2) US corporate crisis
3) emerging markets downturn
4) deep recession.
Our analysis shows that higher risk and uncertainty combined with lower opportunity cost will likely be supportive of gold investment demand in 2020. This could offset the negative effect of lower consumer demand on gold performance as economic activity contracts.
Source: World Gold Council
Are investors ready for the next systemic risk?
May 12, 2020--Emerging markets should be at the core of climate-focused investment strategies
The economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting market volatility are reminders to governments and investors that ignoring systemic risks is perilous.
Even as the world grapples with the immediate health and economic crises, it's clear this may not be the last time that public health is severely compromised, global supply chains are disrupted and trade paralyzed, as another existential threat looms over humanity-the climate crisis.
Source: responsible-investor.com
Unprecedented collapse in CLIs in most major economies
May 12, 2020--Composite leading indicators (CLIs) in most major economies collapsed by unprecedented levels in April as containment measures for Covid-19 continued to have a severe impact on production, consumption and confidence.
In China, however, where containment measures have already been eased, the CLI for the industrial sector is tentatively pointing towards a positive change in momentum, with April's CLI and a large upward revision for March both pushing the CLI upwards. Some care is needed in interpretation, as only partial information is currently available for China in April.
Source: OECD
Coronavirus will usher in the industrial robots
May 12, 2020--As factory shutdowns darken the outlook for the industrial robots market, one of its biggest players sees little reason for despair.
Hiroshi Ogasawara, the president of Yaskawa Electric, argues that in a post-coronavirus world in which workers have to keep their distance from each other, the trend towards automation will only accelerate.
Coming from the head of Japan's second-biggest maker of factory robots, the projection is clearly self-serving. And in the short term it may also prove misplaced.
Source: technocodex.com
Bitcoin's "halvening" is upon us
May 11, 2020--Today's the day that bitcoiners the world over have been waiting for. It’s the day-which only comes around every four years-that the supply of new bitcoins is cut in half. It's the halvening!
(OK yes, some bitcoiners just call it "the halving", but we prefer the former because we feel it's a nice illustration of the way much of Cryptoland doesn't make a lot of sense.)
This halvening, like all other such halvenings, was actually programmed into the bitcoin protocol when it was invented over a decade ago, as a way of giving the cryptocurrency some scarcity.
Source: ncfacanada.org
World Bank-Mineral Production to Soar as Demand for Clean Energy Increases
May 11, 2020--The more ambitious climate targets, the more minerals needed for a clean energy transition
A new World Bank Group report finds that the production of minerals, such as graphite, lithium and cobalt, could increase by nearly 500% by 2050, to meet the growing demand for clean energy technologies.
It estimates that over 3 billion tons of minerals and metals will be needed to deploy wind, solar and geothermal power, as well as energy storage, required for achieving a below 2℃C future.
The report "Minerals for Climate Action: The Mineral Intensity of the Clean Energy Transition" also finds that even though clean energy technologies will require more minerals, the carbon footprint of their production-from extraction to end use-will account for only 6% of the greenhouse gas emissions generated by fossil fuel technologies. The report underscores the important role that recycling and reuse of minerals will play in meeting increasing mineral demand. It also notes that even if we scale up recycling rates for minerals like copper and aluminum by 100%, recycling and reuse would still not be enough to meet the demand for renewable energy technologies and energy storage.
view the World Bank Minerals for Climate Action:The Mineral Intensity of the Clean Energy Transition
Source: World BAnk
Investors row back on ethical principles, research shows
May 7, 2020--Many put a company's economic recovery before ESG commitments in coronavirus crisis
Nine out of 10 investors would prioritise a company's economic recovery over its ethical principles, in a sign that investor commitment to more responsible forms of investing is faltering in the market downturn.
A new survey by Boston Consulting Group, the management consultants, found that 92 per cent of professional investors would prioritise key business capabilities over its commitment to environmental, social and governance objectives (ESG).
Source: FT.com
World Gold Council-Inflows into gold ETFs for a sixth straight month in April
May 7, 2020--April highlights
Globally, gold-backed ETFs (gold ETFs) added 170 tonnes(t) -net inflows of US$9.3bn (+5.1%)-in April, boosting holdings to a new all-time high of 3,355t.1
Assets under management (AUM) also reached a new record high of US$184bn as gold in US dollars moved higher by 5.8%. Inflows have been strong and consistent in recent months, but not unprecedented. Rolling twelve-month inflows of 879t just surpassed those of 2009 and 2016, while rolling six-month inflows are less than two-thirds of the 457t of inflows in the comparable time periods of 2009 and 2016.
Source: World Gold Council
Leverage ratio squeeze hits options trades
May 7, 2020--Derivatives clearing, bank leverage, and options trades make a potent concoction. Add in the volatility caused by the coronavirus pandemic, shake well, and the result is a cocktail that would give most market-makers a nasty headache.
Proprietary traders are complaining that the leverage ratio is forcing clearing banks to turn down options business, crimping trade volumes and threatening the orderly functioning of markets.
Source: risk.net
BetaShares-Market Trends: May 2020
May 6, 2020--Key global trends-equities rebound
Following heavy losses in March, global equities rebounded in April on hopes that coronavirus-driven economic shutdowns would quickly "flatten the curve" of new infections and allow economies to re-open.
Extreme monetary and fiscal policy responses also supported investor optimism. The MSCI All-Country World Equity Return Index rose by 10.4% in local currency terms, after a decline of 12.8% in March. After some credit market disruptions in March, the yield on the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index edged back down in April, from 1.17% to 1.0% p.a., allowing global bonds to post a modest gain in the month. The $US stabilised after recent solid gains while gold prices pushed higher.
Source: BetaShares