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IMF-World Economic Outlook Update, June 2020-A Crisis Like No Other, An Uncertain Recovery
June 24, 2020--Global growth is projected at -4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast. In 2021 global growth is projected at 5.4 percent. Overall, this would leave 2021 GDP some 6½ percentage points lower than in the pre-COVID-19 projections of January 2020.
The adverse impact on low-income households is particularly acute, imperiling the significant progress made in reducing extreme poverty in the world since the 1990s.
As with the April 2020 WEO projections, there is a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty around this forecast. The baseline projection rests on key assumptions about the fallout from the pandemic. In economies with declining infection rates, the slower recovery path in the updated forecast reflects persistent social distancing into the second half of 2020; greater scarring (damage to supply potential) from the larger-than-anticipated hit to activity during the lockdown in the first and second quarters of 2020; and a hit to productivity as surviving businesses ramp up necessary workplace safety and hygiene practices. For economies struggling to control infection rates, a lengthier lockdown will inflict an additional toll on activity.
view the IMF-World Economic Outlook Update, June 2020-A Crisis Like No Other, An Uncertain Recovery
IMF FinTech Notes-Distributed Ledger Technology Experiments in Payments and Settlements
June 24, 2020--Summary:
Major transformations in payment and settlements have occurred in generations. The first generation was paper-based. Delivery times for payment instruments took several days domestically and weeks internationally. The second generation involved computerization with batch processing.
Links between payment systems were made through manual or file-based interfaces. The change-over period between technologies was long and still some paper-based instruments like checks and cash remain in use. The third generation, which has been emerging, involves electronic and mobile payment schemes that enable integrated, immediate, and end-to-end payment and settlement transfers. For example, real-time gross settlement systems have been available in almost all countries. DLT has been viewed as a potential platform for the next generation of payment systems, enhancing the integration and the reconciliation of settlement accounts and their ledgers. So far, experiments with DLT experimentations point to the potential for financial infrastructures to move towards real-time settlement, flatter structures, continuous operations, and global reach. Testing in large-value payments and securities settlement systems have partly demonstrated the technical feasibility of DLT for this new environment. The projects examined analyzed issues associated with operational capacity, resiliency, liquidity savings, settlement finality, and privacy. DLT-based solutions can also facilitate delivery versus payment of securities, payment versus payment of foreign exchange transactions, and efficient cross-border payments.
view the IMF FinTech Notes-Distributed Ledger Technology Experiments in Payments and Settlements
Reopening from the Great Lockdown: Uneven and Uncertain Recovery
June 24, 2020--The COVID-19 pandemic pushed economies into a Great Lockdown, which helped contain the virus and save lives, but also triggered the worst recession since the Great Depression. Over 75 percent of countries are now reopening at the same time as the pandemic is intensifying in many emerging market and developing economies.
Several countries have started to recover. However, in the absence of a medical solution, the strength of the recovery is highly uncertain and the impact on sectors and countries uneven.
Long-term Climate Strategies Critical to Ensuring Sustainable Recovery for Countries, Says New World Bank Report
June 24, 2020--Report identifies key economy-wide actions for long-term decarbonization
Long-term climate strategies that look ahead to 2050 can help countries unlock new economic opportunities while also ensuring a safer climate, says a World Bank report published today.
The World Bank Outlook 2050: Strategic Directions Note proposes a whole-of-economy approach to reaching decarbonization by mid-century through actions across sectors, including food systems, energy, transport, water systems and low-carbon cities.
view the World Bank Outlook 2050: Strategic Directions Note
BIS encourages central banks to continue adapting to the challenge of digital payments
June 24, 2020--Rapid reshaping of payment services requires central banks to keep evolving as they support the safety and integrity of the payment system.
Changes are generating interest in central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which deserve consideration as additional means of payment.
Covid-19 has spurred contactless payments while highlighting shortcomings in payment systems, especially for the poor and unbanked.
Central banks, as guardians of the safety and integrity of the payment system, must keep evolving to meet the challenge of rapidly accelerating digital innovation, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) writes in its Annual Economic Report.
Basel Committee proposes amendment to capital rules for non-performing loan securitisations
June 23, 2020--Proposal sets out a prudent treatment for securitisations of non-performing loans with a risk weight floor of 100% for these exposures
Proposal addresses a gap in the regulatory framework and was being developed before Covid-19
Comments on this technical amendment welcome until 23 August
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision published today the technical amendment Capital treatment of securitisations of non-performing loans. This proposal, which the Committee started developing before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, addresses a gap in the regulatory framework and sets out a prudent treatment for securitisations of non-performing loans.
Basel Committee proposes amendment to capital rules for non-performing loan securitisations
June 23, 2020--Proposal sets out a prudent treatment for securitisations of non-performing loans with a risk weight floor of 100% for these exposures
Proposal addresses a gap in the regulatory framework and was being developed before Covid-19
Comments on this technical amendment welcome until 23 August.
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision published today the technical amendment Capital treatment of securitisations of non-performing loans. This proposal, which the Committee started developing before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, addresses a gap in the regulatory framework and sets out a prudent treatment for securitisations of non-performing loans.
The technical amendment establishes a 100% risk weight for certain senior tranches of non-performing loan securitisations.
Impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy-Statistics & Facts
June 22, 2020--While there is no way to tell exactly what the economic damage from the global COVID-19 novel coronavirus pandemic will be, there is widespread agreement among economists that it will have severe negative impacts on the global economy. Early estimates predicated that, should the virus become a global pandemic, most major economies will lose at least 2.4 percent of the value their gross domestic product (GDP) over 2020, leading economists to already reduce their 2020 forecasts of global economic growth down from around 3.0 percent to 2.4 percent.
To put this number in perspective, global GDP was estimated at around 86.6 trillion U.S. dollars in 2019 – meaning that just a 0.4 percent drop in economic growth amounts to almost 3.5 trillion U.S. dollars in lost economic output. However, these predictions were made prior to COVID-19 becoming a global pandemic, and before the implementation of widespread restrictions on social contact to stop the spread of the virus.
Global Wealth 2020: The Future of Wealth Management-A CEO Agenda
June 20, 2020--The wealth management industry is over 200 years old. Yet for most of that history, providers have operated according to the same general playbook.
It took the massive digital and regulatory disruption of the past 20 years to begin shaking up industry business models, and evidence suggests that most providers have moved slowly, with many still adhering to traditional ways of private banking.
How the Coronavirus Will Reshape World Trade
June 19, 2020--In the post-pandemic world, more economic activity will be designated vital to national security, accelerating pressures on globalization
When the global economy finally gets beyond the pandemic, expect it to be less globalized than before.
Governments, including many longtime advocates of global trade, are using the crisis to erect barriers to commerce and bring manufacturing home. Japan now pays companies to relocate factories from China. French President Emmanuel Macron pledges "full independence" in crucial medical supplies by year-end. In Washington, Republicans and Democrats alike back new "Buy American" requirements for government health spending.