Global ETF News Older than One Year
Deutsche Bank, Guggenheim end talks for RREEF
Deutsche, Guggenheim unable to agree on sale terms
Failure to sell RREEF follows failed asset management sale
Deutsche to give Bank-wide strategy update in September
June 20, 2012--
Deutsche Bank AG and Guggenheim Partners have ended negotiations on the potential sale of RREEF, the German bank's global alternative asset management business, after failing to agree on terms, Deutsche Bank said on Wednesday.
The RREEF business, which has around 47 billion euros ($59.70 billion) in assets under management, was the last one of a range of businesses Deutsche Bank tried but failed to sell to U.S.-based institutional asset manager Guggenheim.
Source: Reuters
Mirae Asset-BRICs weekly-Global Markets Welcome the Greek Election Result
June 20, 2012--China
More policy easing expected.
Hong Kong and China stock markets rose on improving economic data despite persisting volatility. Exports surprised the market with a 15.3% year-on-year growth. Imports rose 12.7%YoY, taking the trade surplus to US$18.7 billion.
On the liquidity front, M2 money supply in May rose 13.2%YoY while new yuan loans added 793.2 billion. The growth in new loans suggests that banks are acting to support the government’s targets on strengthening and improving macroeconomic policy.
India
Worsening economy calls for further measures.
The Indian market rose on speculation that central banks in India, Europe and US may help to stimulate growth giving the current gloomy market outlook. In India, the market is calling for a rate cut as recent data releases disappointed the market.
May inflation came in at 7.6% which was higher than what the market expected. Exports in May were down 4.2% to US$25.7bn. April industrial production of 0.1% growth was below analysts’ expectations.
Brazil
Markets see improving economic data.
Following May’s sharp deterioration in sentiment in response to a deterioration in the global growth outlook, June has thus far seen markets deliver stable performance.
Though the trend of Brazilian economic activity remains weak, it is important to see the 2nd quarter beginning with a positive print of an increase in the Economic Activity Index. The Brazilian government has provided several stimulus measures (tax rebates, lowering labor costs, interest rate cuts) and has room for more.
Russia
Drop in oil prices hinders economic recovery.
Sunday’s Greek elections are to have a globally material impact on near-term market direction. A victory for the New Democracy party and the formation of a pro-bailout coalition government would be well received by markets.
Eurozone finance ministers confirmed that the Spanish banking system is to receive a rescue package worth up to EUR100bn, with no further austerity measures required in exchange. The liability for the loan will ultimately rest with the Spanish Government, causing the country’s sovereign yields to rise further during the week.
Source: Mirae Asset
MSCI: UAE and Qatar remain Frontier Markets, to be reviewed in June 2013
June 20, 2012--The MSCI UAE Index and MSCI Qatar Index will remain under review for potential reclassification to Emerging Markets, at the next Annual Market Classification Review in June 2013,
MSCI said in an e-mailed statement released at 1am local UAE time. Both countries have been under review for an upgrade for the past four years. However, the long expected verdict acknowledged a number of positive developmens in both markets, but hurdles remain. On the UAE, MSCI said that "The MSCI UAE Index meets all requirements besides specific market accessibility issues related to custody and clearing and settlement. Based on current information, the Emirati regulator (Emirates Security and Commodities Authority –“ESCA”), the Dubai Financial Market (“DFM”) and the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (“ADX”) have taken the decision to delay the implementation of a proper false trade mechanism that is expected to remove the requirements for international institutional investors to operate with a dual account structure (...) This dual account structure results in significant operational burdens associated with the need to transfer shares from one account to the other prior to trading." On Qatar, the Geneva-based index developer said "The issue around the very low Foreign Ownership Limit (“FOL”) levels imposed on Qatari companies is expected to be the only remaining impediment to the reclassification of the MSCI Qatar Index to Emerging Markets." The MSCI Emerging Market Index tracks stock markets with a total market capitalisation of $3.2 trillion. An upgrade of the UAE and Qatar to emerging markets would trigger capital inflows from passively and actively managed investment funds covering the emerging markets which under the MSCI scheme include the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China).
Source: AME Info
IMF Working paper-Monetization in Low-and Middle-Income Countries
June 19, 2012--Summary: The degree of an economy's monetization, which has an important implication on economic growth, can be affected by the conduct of monetary policy, financial sector reform, and episodes of financial crises.
The paper finds that monetization--measured by the ratio of broad money to nominal GDP-- in low- to middle-income countries is significantly correlated with per-capita GDP, real interest rates, and financial sector reform. It suggests that maintaining an upward momentum in monetization can be an important policy objective, particularly for low-income countries, and that monetary and financial sector policies need to be conducive to enhancing monetization.
view the IMF Working paper-Monetization in Low-and Middle-Income Countries
Source: IMF
FSB publishes study on the effects of regulatory reforms on Emerging Market and Developing Economies
June 19, 2012--The Financial Stability Board (FSB), in collaboration with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, published today a study identifying potential unintended consequences of regulatory reforms on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).
The study, which was prepared in response to a February 2012 request by G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, focuses primarily on internationally agreed regulatory reforms whose implementation may affect EMDEs.
The intent of the study is not to re-open those reforms but to better understand their possible effects on EMDEs in the context of broader post-crisis developments and to facilitate their timely, full and consistent implementation.
Input for this study was received from national authorities in 35 EMDEs that are members of the FSB or an FSB Regional Consultative Group, as well as from the private sector. There is widespread support among surveyed EMDEs for the objectives of the agreed reforms. At the same time, there is a range of views about the extent to which these reforms are having, or expected to have, an impact on their financial systems. This heterogeneity in perspectives reflects the early stage of implementation of these reforms and the diversity of EMDE financial systems, which give rise to different considerations and concerns. Most of the responses reflect expectations regarding potential future effects, rather than observed impacts.
Source: FSB
EDHEC-Risk Institute Warns against "Speculative' Regulatory Proposals for Commodities Markets in Europe
June 19, 2012--In a robust critique of a recent paper by the public interest group Finance Watch ("Investing Not Betting: Making Financial Markets Serve Society," April 2012), EDHEC-Risk Institute has taken issue with a number of positions that this paper deems to be self-evident,
e.g. that speculators must have a minority role in futures markets; that excessive speculation undermines the commodity price formation mechanism; and that there should be a linear relationship between a commodity’s supply-and-demand data and its price.
Drawing on the theoretical and empirical evidence in the academic literature, the EDHEC-Risk Institute position paper, entitled “Who Sank the Boat?” (in reference to the difficulty in apportioning causality for commodity price spikes), shows that the above assertions are simply wrong.
According to the author of the EDHEC-Risk paper, Hilary Till, “modern commodity futures markets are the result of 160 years of trial-and-error efforts. One result has been the creation of an effective price discovery process, which in turn assists in the coordination of individual efforts globally in dynamically matching current production decisions with future consumption needs in commodities.
a href="http://www.edhec-risk.com/edhec_publications/all_publications" TARGET="_top">read more
view the Who Sank the Boat?" Response to the Finance Watch paper "Investing Not Betting"
Source: EDHEC
Monitoring Systemic Risk Based on Dynamic Thresholds
June 18, 2012--Summary: Successful implementation of macroprudential policy is contingent on the ability to identify and estimate systemic risk in real time.
In this paper, systemic risk is defined as the conditional probability of a systemic banking crisis and this conditional probability is modeled in a fixed effect binary response model framework. The model structure is dynamic and is designed for monitoring as the systemic risk forecasts only depend on data that are available in real time. Several risk factors are identified and it is hereby shown that the level of systemic risk contains a predictable component which varies through time. Furthermore, it is shown how the systemic risk forecasts map into crisis signals and how policy thresholds are derived in this framework. Finally, in an out-of-sample exercise, it is shown that the systemic risk estimates provided reliable early warning signals ahead of the recent financial crisis for several economies.
view the IMF working paper-Monitoring Systemic Risk Based on Dynamic Thresholds
Source: IMF
Deutsche Boerse Asks EU Court to Cancel NYSE Merger Ban
June 18, 2012--Deutsche Boerse AG (DB1) asked a European Union court to overturn a ban on its planned merger with NYSE Euronext, saying regulators made errors when reviewing the deal that would have created the world's biggest exchange.
Regulators “failed to properly assess” offers made by the companies to eliminate antitrust concerns and wrongly ruled that the two exchanges’ rivalry limits fees for customers, Deutsche Boerse argued in a filing at the EU’s General Court in Luxembourg published in the EU’s Official Journal on June 16. NYSE isn’t a party to the appeal and said in March that it was focused on its strategy as a standalone company.
Source: Bloomberg Business
Investment Perspective-European Bank Leverage-Winthrop Capital
This is a summary of a recent conference call with Oliver Sarkozy, Head of Global Financial Services for the Carlyle
Group.
June 18, 2012--The U.S. Financial Crisis
The United States capital markets during the periods of 2008 and 2009, which represented the height of the
Financial Crisis, were characterized by serious and volatile dislocations.
The equity, sub-prime loan, corporate bond and high yield markets experienced severe price swings which proved to be a symptom of a bigger problem. The turning point was the Lehman/AIG weekend in which the U.S. government allowed Lehman to fail and quickly purchased a majority stake in AIG. The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) allowed the US Treasury to invest directly in the US banks through the purchase of preferred stock.
The real issue was the lack of liquidity and low capital levels in the US banking system. The US banking system is roughly $13 trillion in size and is funded largely though retail deposits of $9 trillion. Sarkozy points out that this represents roughly 90% of the GDP of the country. This has no analytic point except to illustrate the relative size of the banking system relative to the economy.
Socialism and the European Banking System Sarkozy made an interesting point about the difference between the US banks and the European banks. Whereas the US banks exist to serve the consumer and the shareholder, the European banks exist to serve the government. In our Investment Perspective - A Context for Understanding the Global Debt Crisis, we discuss the link between democracy and capitalism and the roots of socialism and monarchy in Europe. The growth in the European banking system was a result of demand for the governments to issue more debt to fund their social programs. Thus, the government issues debt, the banks buy the debt and fund the purchase through a large wholesale funding base which is commercial paper and institutional certificates of deposit.
visit www.winthropcm.com for more info.
Source: Winthrop Capital Management
ETFS Precious Metals Weekly: Greece Steps Back from the Abyss, but Spain Remains Vulnerable
June 18, 2012--Greece avoids immediate worst case scenario, but Spain is now the epicentre of the crisis. Spain voted in the pro-reform New Democracy
party by a decent margin on Sunday, reducing the risk of an imminent
break-up of the Euro.
Spain, however, is now contending with 10 year government bond yields near 7%, a level that threatens to drive the country into a self-perpetuating debt confidence crisis. The situation in Spain is of particular concern as it follows a Euro 100bn bank bailout loan package only two weeks ago, indicating that only extreme measures have a chance of pulling Spain bank from the brink that Greece has temporarily stepped back from. If the European authorities and the ECB do not step in forcefully, the crisis risks spiralling out of control. At the same time, weaker US growth and inflation prints are opening up room for the Fed to consider implementing another round of quantitative easing. Both of these scenarios are likely to be bullish gold and this has been reflected in rising physical gold ETP purchases and increasing net long positions in gold futures.
Platinum and palladium prices hit 5-week highs as labour unrest adds to South African production problems. Last week, reports of violent clashed at South African mines raised the spectre of strikes, likely resulting in production stoppages, and lifting platinum and palladium prices to 5-week highs. The platinum price jumped 5%, while palladium rallied 3% last week. Additionally, Aquarius Platinum, the world’s fourth largest producer of platinum, announced its intention to cease production at its Marikana mine. The shutdown, just weeks after Eastern Platinum cut investment at another South African mine, highlights the ongoing cost pressures affecting the miners. Citing poor economic conditions, Aquarius has shut down the mine until, ‘an improved economic climate merits their extraction in the future’. The combintion of mine closures and strikes at operating mines continues to add support to the palladium, and partularly the platinum price.
visit www.etfsecurities.com for more info
Source: ETF Securities
