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Even without sanctions, flows of oil, coal and gas will be disrupted by Ukraine crisis
March 2, 2022--Very few companies appear prepared to take the risk of doing business with Russia, meaning trade could dry up even without international sanctions.
Europe is heavily dependent on Russia for energy commodities, including for 40% of its natural gas.
It could instead buy liquefied natural gas (LNG) from other countries, but this will be expensive, with prices up by nearly 30% in a week.
China may continue to buy Russian crude oil, but it is unlikely to take anywhere near enough to cover Russia's lost shipments to Europe.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine will disrupt the global movement of energy commodities, even if Western powers don't impose sanctions on exports from Russia.
So far none of the retaliatory measures against Moscow have been targeted at exports of crude oil, coal or natural gas, the latter either by pipeline or by ships as liquefied natural gas (LNG).
That's perhaps tacit acknowledgment of Russia's importance to the global supply of these commodities, especially with regard to natural gas, with Russia meeting about 40% of Europe's annual demand.
Sustainable Finance in Emerging Markets is Enjoying Rapid Growth, But May Bring Risks
March 1, 2022-- Financial stability concerns include potentially higher sensitivity to global financial conditions.
Most of the activity in the rapidly growing world of sustainable finance has been previously concentrated in advanced economies, but emerging markets, while still a small share of the total, saw a surge last year.
As a result, their market share has increased for the first time since 2016, underscoring the growing investor appetite for environmental, social, and governance (ESG) products, but this growing opportunity also poses new risks.
ESG's rising prominence
Sustainable finance incorporates ESG principles into business decisions and investment strategies, covering issues from climate change to labor practices. It has become more mainstream in emerging markets in part because of pandemic-related financing needs, such as healthcare, as well as Latin America's surge in climate-related borrowing.
Key takeaways from the IPCC report on climate impacts and adaptation
March 1, 2022--A new major report has been released by the U.N. climate panel.
The report details the already stark effects of climate change and the worsening conditions for the majority of life on Earth.
Inferences include the destruction of habitats, the significant decline of biodiversity and the risk to global food supplies.
The report also underlines the need to conserve 30% to 50% of the Earth's land, freshwater and ocean areas-echoing the 30% goal of the U.N's Convention on Biodiversity.
The U.N. climate panel's latest major report, details how climate change is impacting nature, societies and economies, as well as what we can do to adapt in a warming world. read more
Here are some of the report's main conclusions:
'Widespread' damage is already occurring
People and other animals are already dying in heatwaves, storms and other disasters fuelled by global warming, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns. Hundreds of plant and animal species have disappeared from local areas, both on land and at sea.
Climate change: a threat to human wellbeing and health of the planet
February 28, 2022--Taking action now can secure our future
Human-induced climate change is causing dangerous and widespread disruption in nature and affecting the lives of billions of people around the world, despite efforts to reduce the risks. People and ecosystems least able to cope are being hardest hit, said scientists in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, released today.
"This report is a dire warning about the consequences of inaction. " said Hoesung Lee, Chair of the IPCC. "It shows that climate change is a grave and mounting threat to our wellbeing and a healthy planet. Our actions today will shape how people adapt and nature responds to increasing climate risks."
The world faces unavoidable multiple climate hazards over the next two decades with global warming of 1.5 ℃ (2.7℉). Even temporarily exceeding this warming level will result in additional severe impacts, some of which will be irreversible. Risks for society will increase, including to infrastructure and low-lying coastal settlements.
view the IPCC Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability full report
IMF Working Paper-The Effect of Tariffs in Global Value Chains
February 25, 2022--Summary:
This paper empirically investigates the impact of tariffs when production is organized in global value chains. Using global input-output matrices, we construct four different tariff measures that capture the direct and indirect exposure to tariffs at different stages of the production chain for a broad set of countries and industries. Our results suggest that tariffs have significant effects on economic outcomes, including on countries and sectors not directly targeted.
We find that tariffs higher up and further down in the value chain depress value added, employment, labor productivity and total factor productivity to varying degrees. We find no benefits for the sector that enjoys additional protection, yet there is some evidence of economic activity being diverted, i.e. positive effects on value added and employment from tariffs imposed on competitors. Our paper relates to recent innovations in theoretical gravity models and provides an empirical assessment of possible long-term effects of recent trade tensions.
IMF-Economic Indicators Signal Diminished Growth Momentum at Start of Year
February 24, 2022--The economic recovery continues, though the pace of the recovery has slowed. Notably, our global forecast was lowered in January to a still-healthy 4.4 percent expansion this year. This was down from an October projection of 4.9 percent, amid reduced growth prospects for the United States and China, the two largest economies.
Meanwhile, inflation has been higher than expected in many economies, while financial markets remain volatile as geopolitical tensions have increased.
High-frequency economic indicators offer evidence that the growth momentum has slowed going into 2022-in line with expectations of a weak start to the year, owing to the spread of the highly contagious Omicron variant and persistent supply-chain disruptions. In this respect, we project activity to pick up in the second quarter of the year as the variant’s impact fades.
Proof of stake-This alternative method for securing digital currency could end crypto's energy consumption woes
February 22, 2022--Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin use huge amounts of electricity. In 2021, the Bitcoin network consumed upwards of 100 terawatt-hours, more than the typical annual energy budget of Finland.
Proof of stake offers a way to set up such a network without requiring so much energy. And if all goes as planned. Ethereum. which runs all sorts of applications in addition to the world's second-largest cryptocurrency, will transition to it in the first half of 2022. The shift has been projected to cut energy use by 99.95%.