GDP Growth-First quarter of 2022, OECD
May 23, 2022--OECD GDP growth slows sharply in the first quarter of 2022
In the first quarter of 2022, gross domestic product (GDP) in the OECD rose by just 0.1% quarte-on-quarter according to provisional estimates, a sharp slowdown compared with the 1.2% increase in the fourth quarter of 2021.
In the G7, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth turned negative in Q1 2022, falling by 0.1% compared with an increase of 1.2% in Q4 2021. The G7 result in the first quarter of 2022 reflects negative GDP growth in the United States (minus 0.4%), Italy (minus 0.2%) and Japan (minus 0.2%), as well as zero growth in France and weaker positive growth in the United Kingdom (0.8%) and Canada (1.4%) than in the previous quarter.Germany was the only G7 country where the pace of growth increased, with GDP growth of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2022 compared with a contraction of 0.3% in the previous quarter.
Source: OECD
WEF-Chief Economists Outlook: May 2022
May 23, 2022-The May 2022 edition of the Chief Economists Outlook comes out amid extremely high uncertainty about geopolitical developments, the trajectory of the global economy and the next steps for economic policy.
Instead of entering a post-COVID recovery phase, economies are experiencing additional shocks, first and foremost from the war in Ukraine and associated geopolitical repercussions, but also from new outbreaks of COVID-19 and lockdowns in major industrial centres.
Source: weforum.org
BIS Working Paper-Banking in the shadow of Bitcoin? The institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies
May 18, 2022--Summary
Focus
The market capitalisations of cryptocurrencies and related economic activities have grown phenomenally in recent years. While the role of retail investors has received much attention,we know less about the role of financial intermediaries in this sector. How significant is the presence of traditional intermediaries such as banks and investment funds in crypto markets,and what motivates them to take on cryptocurrency exposures? And how important are novel intermediaries such as crypto exchanges?
Contribution We gauge the significance of financial intermediaries in crypto markets,using a novel global supervisory database of banks' cryptocurrency exposures and a range of additional data sources.
We assess the factors that determine banks' holdings of cryptocurrencies. In addition,we investigate the role played by novel crypto exchanges,and examine the cross-country drivers of institutionalisation.
Findings
The potential for cryptocurrencies to scale up quickly calls for a comprehensive approach to assessing and mitigating risks,even though the interlinkages between crypto markets and mainstream finance have remained limited. The exposures of major banks to cryptocurrency exposures are currently still very modest,amounting to less than USD 200 million in 2020. We find that banks are more likely to hold cryptocurrencies when country indicators for greater innovation capacity,more advanced economic development,and financial inclusion are high.
Source: BIS.org
BIS-Commodity market disruptions, growth and inflation
May 18, 2022--Key takeaways
Higher commodity prices will erode global growth, as the modest growth boost for commodity exporters will only partly offset the output losses of commodity importers.
Rising commodity prices will also intensify global inflationary pressures. The effects will be strongest for food and energy prices, but spillovers to other components of inflation are likely.
Recent shocks have been smaller than the 1970s oil shocks but broader-based, encompassing food and industrial commodities as well as energy. Nonetheless, structural changes, as well as stronger policy frameworks and nominal anchors, make stagflation less likely to return.
Source: BIS
Climate change is hurting insurers, report says
May 17, 2022--Climate change is hurting the insurance industry and only 8% of insurers are preparing adequately for its impact, consultants Capgemini and financial industry body Efma said in a report on Tuesday.
Insured losses from natural catastrophes have increased 250% in the last 30 years, with perils such as wildfires and storms, seen as particularly impacted by climate change, causing an even faster rise in insured losses, the report said.
Insurers' main catastrophe risk in the past was typically from hurricanes in U.S. states such as Florida and Texas, Seth Rachlin, global insurance industry leader at Capgemini, told Reuters.
Source: reuters.com
IMF Working Paper-Bilateral Trade Imbalances
May 13, 2022-Summary:
If sectoral trade flows obey structural gravity, countries' bilateral trade imbalances are the result of macro trade imbalances, "triangular trade", or pairwise asymmetric trade barriers. Using data for 40 major economies and the Rest of the World, we show that large and pervasive asymmetries in trade barriers are required to account for most of the observed variation in bilateral imbalances.
A dynamic quantitative trade model suggests that eliminating these asymmetries would significantly reduce bilateral (but not macro) imbalances and have sizeable impacts on welfare. We provide evidence that the asymmetries we measure are in part related to the policy environment: trade inside the European Single Market appears to be subject to more bilaterally symmetric frictions. Extending the same symmetry to all parts of the global economy would give a large boost to the real incomes of several non-E.U. countries.
Source: IMF.org
Amid Multiple Crises, Major Transformation of Commodity Markets Is Underway
May 12, 2022--Demand growth to decline over next three decades; energy transition will be challenging
Global commodity markets are being reshaped in lasting ways as a result of COVID-19, the war in Ukraine,and the impacts of climate change-a transformation that is likely to have profound implications for developing economies over the coming decades, a new World Bank study has found.
The study, Commodity Markets: Evolution, Challenges, and Policies, offers the first comprehensive analysis-encompassing all major commodities-of how these markets evolved over the past 100 years and the directions they are likely to take over the next 30. It predicts that growth in overall global demand for commodities is likely to decelerate as population growth slows and developing economies mature, although demand for some commodities is likely to rise.
Source: worldbank.org
ETF assets will surpass $20tn by 2026, PwC predicts
May 11, 2022--The accountancy firm canvassed executives representing more than 80% of global ETF assets
Assets managed by exchange traded funds globally could grow to more than $20tn by 2026, according to a PwC report, which revealed executives expect the ETF market's "phenomenal momentum" of the past five years to continue.
In its new report, entitled ETFs 2026: The next big leap, the accountancy giant predicts that assets will grow to more than $20tn, representing a 17 per cent compound annual growth rate is achievable.
Source: ft.com
ETFGI reports the global ETFs industry gathered US$31.42 billion in net inflows in April 2022
May 11, 2022-ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm covering trends in the global ETFs/ETPs ecosystem, reported today that the global ETFs industry gathered US$31.42 billion in net inflows in April, bringing year-to-date net inflows to US$337.11 billion.
During April 2022, assets invested in the global ETFs industry decreased by 7.4%, going from US$10.09 trillion at the end of March to US$9.34 trillion, according to ETFGI's April 2022 global ETFs and ETPs industry landscape insights report, the monthly report which is part of an annual paid-for research subscription service.
Highlights
Assets of $9.34 Tn invested inglobal ETFs industry at the end of April.
Assets decreased 9.0% YTD in 2022, going from $10.27 Tn at end of 2021 to $9.34 Tn.
Global ETFs industry gathered $31.42 Bn in net inflows in April
YTD net inflows of $337.11 Bn are the second highest on record, after YTD net inflows in 2021 of
$464.60 Bn.
$1.16 Tn in net inflows gathered in the past 12 months.
35th month of consecutive net inflows.
Equity ETFs and ETPs listed globally saw $1.75 Bn net outflows in April 2022.
Source: ETFGI
WEF-Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2022
May 11, 2022--This special edition report on global energy transition builds on the trends from the Energy Transition Index to provide perspective on the current challenges and recommendations on how to navigate the transition through a turbulent macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. A series of compounded shocks pose short-term risks to energy affordability, sustainability, and energy security.
However, the window to prevent the worst consequences of climate change is closing fast, and the transition must be supercharged by ramping up clean energy investments, raising policy ambitions, and transforming consumer and industrial energy consumption. Strengthening energy security is paramount, dual diversification - in import partners in the short-term, and in fuel mix in the long-term-can improve resilience.
Source: World Economic Forum (WEF)