Global ETF News Older than One Year
The Effects of Economic Shocks on Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations
July 1, 2022--Summary:
In this paper, we examine how economic shocks affect the distribution of household inflation expectations. We show that the dynamics of households' expected inflation distributions are driven by three distinctive functional shocks, which influence the expected inflation distribution through disagreement, level shift and ambiguity.
Linking these functional shocks to economic shocks, we find that contractionary monetary shocks increase the average level of inflation expectation with anchoring effects, with a reduction in disagreement and an increase in the share of households expecting future inflation to be between 2 to 4 percent. Such anchoring effects are not observed when the high inflation periods prior to the Volcker disinflation are included. Expansionary government spending shocks have inflationary effects on both short and medium-run inflation expectations, while an increase in personal income tax shocks is inflationary for mediumrun. A surprise increase in gasoline prices increases the level of inflation expectations, but lowers the share of households with 2 percent inflation expectations.
SOurce: imf.org
Central banks look to China's renminbi to diversify foreign currency reserves
June 30, 2022--Dollar's dominance could gradually decline as a result of geopolitical flare-ups, UBS survey shows
Central banks are looking towards the renminbi to diversify their foreign currency holdings in a sign that geopolitical flare-ups could chip away at the dollar's dominance.
Source: ft.com
Greenhouse Emissions Rise to Record, Erasing Drop During Pandemic
June 30, 202--Emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases plunged 4.6 percent in 2020, as lockdowns in the first half of the year restricted global mobility and hampered economic activity. Many hoped that this would mark the beginning of a more permanent shift downwards in emissions.
The latest data, however, dashed those hopes. As the Chart of the Week shows, annual global greenhouse gas emissions rebounded 6.4 percent last year to a new record, eclipsing the pre-pandemic peak as global economic activity resumed.
Source: IMF.org
The inflation story differs across major economies
June 30, 2022--The return of inflation has touched off an unusual public debate among policymakers around the world, but there are important differences in inflation across economies that call for radically different policy responses. Inflation may be caused by a reduction in an economy's ability to supply goods and services, an increase in the demand for goods and services, or both. Reductions in supply appear to be widespread, but increases in demand are limited mainly to the United States and the United Kingdom.
Policies to increase supply are often hard to implement, but releasing oil and grain from official reserves can be a useful temporary measure. Tighter monetary and fiscal policies are needed to restrain demand, notably in the United States and the United Kingdom. So far, Japan has been the exception to the global pattern, with declines in demand and inflation. Continued easy monetary and fiscal policies are needed there.
Source: piie.com
World Economic Forum-What next for travel and tourism? Here's what the experts say
June 30, 2022-- In 2020 alone, the travel and tourism sector lost $4.5 trillion and 62 million jobs globally.
But as the world recovers from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, travel and tourism can bounce back as an inclusive, sustainable, and resilient sector.
Two experts highlight some of the key transformations in the sector going forward during the World Economic Forum's Our World in Transformation series.
The Travel & Tourism sector was one of the hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving not only companies but also tourism-driven economies severely affected by shutdowns, travel restrictions and the disappearance of international travel.
In 2020 alone, the sector lost $4.5 trillion and 62 million jobs, impacting the living standards and well-being of communities across the globe. Moreover, the halt in international travel gave both leisure and business travellers the chance to consider the impact of their choices on the climate and environment.
Source:wef.org
COVID-19 Drives Global Surge in use of Digital Payments
June 29, 2022--Three quarters of adults now have a bank or mobile money account; gender gap in account ownership narrows
The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred financial inclusion-driving a large increase in digital payments amid the global expansion of formal financial services.
This expansion created new economic opportunities, narrowing the gender gap in account ownership, and building resilience at the household level to better manage financial shocks, according to the Global Findex 2021 database.
As of 2021, 76% of adults globally now have an account at a bank, other financial institution, or with a mobile money provider, up from 68% in 2017 and 51% in 2011. Importantly, growth in account ownership was evenly distributed across many more countries. While in previous Findex surveys over the last decade much of the growth was concentrated in India and China, this year's survey found that the percentage of account ownership increased by double digits in 34 countries since 2017.
Source: worldbank.org
Rise of ETFs 'destabilising' emerging markets
June 27, 2022--Passive money most likely to be withdrawn during times of global stress, analysis finds
The explosive growth of index-tracking exchange traded funds has destabilised emerging economies, increasing their vulnerability to global shocks, according to economists at the Italian central bank.
Their analysis found that investment funds were far more likely than other sources of private sector funding, such as banks, insurance companies and pension funds, to withdraw funding from developing countries during global shocks.
Source: FT.com
BIS Annual Economic Report-No respite
BIS Annual Economic Report-No respite
June 26, 2022--Introduction
There is no respite for the global economy. Two years ago, it was shaken by the onset of the pandemic, as an overwhelming health crisis turned into an overwhelming economic crisis. While the after-tremors of the pandemic still reverberate, two new shocks hit home in the year under review: the unexpected resurgence of inflation and the tragic war in Ukraine.
Last year's Annual Economic Report (AER) raised the prospect of a bumpy pandexit; bumps have turned out to be a one-two punch.
These tumultuous events are bound to have far-reaching consequences. Are we perhaps witnessing a regime change, from a low- to a high-inflation regime? Is the global economy flirting with stagflation? And are we seeing signs of an end to the post-World War II globalisation era? Meanwhile, the crypto universe is in turmoil, reminding us that there are important developments in the monetary system that we cannot neglect.
On the macro front, policy is facing daunting challenges. In some ways, they are not new; but in others, they are unique. As Mark Twain quipped, "History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes." The world economy experienced stagflation in the 1970s, following a shift away from a low-inflation regime. The new element is that, against the backdrop of historically low interest rates, debt levels- private and public- have never been as high. This is far from inconsequential. Moreover, the monetary and financial system is in the throes of the digital revolution. This, too, albeit in a different way, is far from immaterial.
Source: BIS.org
WTO rolls out Trade Connectivity Heatmap to highlight bilateral trade between economies
June 23, 2022--The WTO is launching today (23 June) the Trade Connectivity Heatmap, a new visualisation tool designed to give a broad overview of the trade relationships between different economies across different product categories, with the possibility of honing in on data for bilateral product-by-product relationships.
Available via the WTO Stats Dashboard, the Heatmap utilises bilateral trade flow data from more than 180 economies aggregated into around 70 product groups. When a user selects an economy from the drop-down menu, a heatmap is generated. Each square tile represents a share of imports or exports sourced from, or destined for, the selected economy.
Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)
The BIS presents a vision for the future monetary system
June 21, 2022--A monetary system based on central bank public goods, using a digital version of sovereign currency as its foundation, could foster innovation while safeguarding stability and security.
As part of a two-tiered monetary system, central bank digital currencies and fast payments systems could enhance efficiency and financial inclusion, while buttressing data privacy.
Recent turmoil in the crypto universe is a reminder of cryptocurrencies' financial vulnerabilities, but their deeper structural inadequacies have been apparent for some time, the report warns.
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) today set out a blueprint for a future digital monetary system. In a special chapter of its Annual Economic Report 2022, the BIS said a system grounded in a digital representation of central bank money could combine innovation with essential attributes such as safety, stability, accountability, openness and efficiency. Such a system would be capable of adapting continuously to serve the public interest. This vision is built on the foundation of trust in central banks, with a digital version of sovereign currencies at its core.
Source: bis.org
