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Food and Energy Price Shocks from Ukraine War Could Last for Years
April 26, 2022--Shift to more costly trade patterns has begun; transition to cleaner energy could be delayed
The war in Ukraine has dealt a major shock to commodity markets, altering global patterns of trade, production, and consumption in ways that will keep prices at historically high levels through the end of 2024, according to the World Bank's latest Commodity Markets Outlook report.
The increase in energy prices over the past two years has been the largest since the 1973 oil crisis. Price increases for food commodities-of which Russia and Ukraine are large producers-and fertilizers, which rely on natural gas as a production input, have been the largest since 2008.
view the World Bank April 2022 Commodity Markets Outlook
ETFGI reports assets invested in Active ETFs listed globally reached a record 453 billion US Dollars at the end of March 2022
April 26, 2022-- ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm covering trends in the global ETF/ETP ecosystem, reported today that assets invested in Active ETFs listed globally reached a record US$453 billion at the end of March. Actively managed ETFs gathered net inflows of US$10.12 billion during March.
Assets invested in actively managed ETFs/ETPs increased by 2.6%, from US$442 billion at the end of February 2022 to US$453 billion, according to ETFGI's March 2022 Active ETF and ETP industry landscape insights report, an annual paid-for research subscription service. (All dollar values in USD unless otherwise noted.)
Highlights
Assets invested in Active ETFs listed globally reached a record $453 Bn at the end of March 2022.
Assets increased 3.4% in Q1 2022, going from $438 Bn at the end of 2021 to $453 Bn.
Actively managed ETFs gathered net inflows of $10.12 Bn during March.
Q1 net inflows of $32.97 Bn are the 2nd highest on record, behind only Q1 2021 with $48.16 Bn in net inflows.
$116.22 Bn in net inflows gathered in the past 12 months.
24th month of consecutive net inflows.
ETFGI reports ESG ETFs listed globally gathered net inflows of 7 billion US dollars during March 2022
April 25, 2022--ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm covering trends in the global ETFs/ETPs ecosystem, reported today that Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) ETFs and ETPs listed globally gathered net inflows of US$7.00 billion during March, bringing year to date net inflows to US$24.88 Bn which is much lower than the US$53.48 Bn gathered at this point last year.
Total assets invested in ESG ETFs and ETPs increased by 3.2% from US$378 billion at the end of February 2022 to US$390 billion, according to ETFGI's March 2022 ETF and ETP ESG industry landscape insights report, the monthly report which is part of an annual paid-for research subscription service. (All dollar values in USD unless otherwise noted.)
Highlights
Assets of $390 Bn invested in ESG ETFs listed globally at the end of March 2022 are the 2nd highest.
Assets decreased 0.03% YTD in 2022, going from $390.098 Bn at the end of 2021 to $389.997 Bn.
Q1 net inflows of $24.88 Bn are the second highest on record, after 2021 Q1 net inflows of $53.48 Bn.
$131 Bn in net inflows gathered in the past 12 months.
39th month of consecutive net inflows.
ESG Equity ETFs and ETPs gathered $5.45 Bn in net inflows in March.
Euro Notches Biggest Drop as Global Payment Currency Since 2011
April 20, 2022--The euro is being used less often as a global payment currency, posting its biggest percentage-point drop in more than a decade in March, as inflation and the war in Ukraine weigh on its appeal for transactions.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remained in the top spot for a 10th consecutive month, and has dominated global payments for the most part since 2013, according to data from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, or SWIFT.
IMF-Shockwaves from the War in Ukraine Test the Financial System's Resilience
April 19, 2022--Financial stability risks have risen as war tests the resilience of the financial system through various channels
Chapter 1 looks at the implications of the war in Ukraine on the financial system. Commodity prices pose challenging trade-offs for central banks. Many emerging and frontier markets are facing especially difficult conditions. In China, financial vulnerabilities remain elevated amid ongoing stress in the property sector and new COVID-19 outbreaks.
Central banks should act decisively to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched without jeopardizing the recovery. Policymakers will need to confront the structural issues brought to the fore by the war, including the trade-off between energy security and climate transition.
Chapter 2 discusses the sovereign-bank nexus in emerging markets.
Financial Stability Risks Grow as War Complicates Push to Contain Inflation
April 19, 2022--While no systemic event has materialized, the balance of risks has tilted more firmly to the downside.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine raises financial stability risks for the world and poses questions about the longer-term impact on economies and markets.
The war, amid an already slowing recovery from the pandemic, is set to test the resilience of financial markets and poses a threat to financial stability as discussed in our latest Global Financial Stability Report.
Ukraine and Russia face the most pressing risks. Yet it is already clear that the severity of disruptions in commodity markets and to supply chains are creating downside risks by weighing adversely on macrofinancial stability, inflation, and the global economy.
Is the environment or economy a bigger priority? A view from the US
April 19, 2022-- Data shows how US attitudes on whether to prioritize the environment or the economy has changed over time.
The chart below shows how public opinion has shifted.
The battle in the minds of people in the U.S. between prioritizing the environment (even at the risk of curbing economic growth) or the economy (even if the environment suffers), has been a bit of a rollercoaster over the last few decades.
As Gallup survey data shows, back in the 80's and 90's, the environment was the clear winner in this moral dilemma when looked at nationally. This however, started to change as the new millennium commenced.
As our infographic illustrates, the struggle in the U.S. between the two really came to a head as the effects of the 2008 financial crisis started to bite. In March 2009, the economy had shifted to the forefront of most people's minds, with a majority (51 percent) choosing the economy as a priority, compared to 42 percent favoring the environment. Mother Earth did eventually start to gain control over American hearts and minds again between 2015 and 2019, but the Covid-19 pandemic appears to have shifted the balance once again in 2020 and 2021.
War Dims Global Economic Outlook as Inflation Accelerates
April 19, 2022--The effects of the war will propagate far and wide, adding to price pressures and exacerbating significant policy challenges.
Global economic prospects have been severely set back, largely because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
This crisis unfolds even as the global economy has not yet fully recovered from the pandemic.
Even before the war, inflation in many countries had been rising due to supply-demand imbalances and policy support during the pandemic, prompting a tightening of monetary policy. The latest lockdowns in China could cause new bottlenecks in global supply chains.
In this context, beyond its immediate and tragic humanitarian impact, the war will slow economic growth and increase inflation. Overall economic risks have risen sharply, and policy tradeoffs have become even more challenging.
view the IMF World Economic Outlook-
War Sets Back the Global Recovery-April 2022
Private Debt to Weigh on Global Economic Recovery
April 18, 2022--A record rise in private debt could slow the economic recovery, but the drag on growth will vary across countries and within them.
Governments succeeded in lessening the economic pain of the pandemic by providing plenty of liquidity to stricken consumers and businesses through credit guarantees, concessional lending and moratoriums on interest payments.
But although these policies proved effective in supporting balance sheets, they also led to a spike in private debt, extending a steady increase in leverage spurred by supportive financial conditions since the global financial crisis of 2008.
Global private debt surged by 13 percent of the world's gross domestic product in 2020-faster than the rise seen during the global financial crisis and almost as fast as public debt.
Global Economic Uncertainty, Surging Amid War, May Slow Growth
April 15, 2022--As the war in Ukraine unfolds, global uncertainty has surged, according to the latest reading of the World Uncertainty Index-a quarterly measure across 143 countries. This increase is a bad sign for growth. Our research finds that such increases foreshadow significant output declines. Based on our estimates, the rise in uncertainty in the first quarter could be enough to reduce full-year global growth by up to 0.35 percentage point.
While global uncertainty reached unprecedented levels with the initial coronavirus outbreak, it then fell sharply. However, the World Uncertainty Index rebounded in the first quarter, reaching levels close to what was seen around the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks in the United States and the United Kingdom's 2016 vote to leave the European Union.
