IMF Working paper-Spillovers from the Maturing of China's Economy
November 8, 2016-- Summary: China's transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘'maturing' of China's economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption.
In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China's closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.
Source: IMF
IMF Working Paper-Oil Prices and the Global Economy: Is It Different This Time Around?
November 8, 2016--Summary: The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the United States and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower interest rates and inflation in most countries, and increase global real equity prices.
The effects on real output are positive. although they take longer to materialize (around four quarters after the shock). We then re-examine the effects of low oil prices on the U.S. economy over different sub-periods using monthly observations on real oil prices, real equity prices and real dividends. We confirm the perverse positive relationship between oil and equity prices over the period since the 2008 financial crisis highlighted in the recent literature, but show that this relationship has been unstable when considered over the longer time period of 1946-2016. In contrast, we find a stable negative relationship between oil prices and real dividends which we argue is a better proxy for economic activity (as compared to equity prices). On the supply side, the effects of lower oil prices differ widely across the different oil producers, and could be perverse initially, as some of the major oil producers try to compensate their loss of revenues by raising production. Taking demand and supply adjustments to oil price changes as a whole, we conclude that oil markets equilibrate but rather slowly, with large episodic swings between low and high oil prices.
Source: IMF
World Bank-State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2016
November 7, 2016--This report provides an up-to-date overview of existing and emerging carbon pricing instruments around the world, including national and subnational initiatives
Furthermore, it gives an overview of current corporate carbon pricing initiatives. Another key focus of the report is on the importance of aligning carbon pricing with the broader policy landscape.
Source: World Bank
WGC-Gold Demand Trends Q3 2016
November 7, 2016--Global gold demand amounted to 993t in Q3 2016 (-10%), as high gold prices discouraged consumers.
ETPs were the only bright spot during the quarter, with 146t of inflows helping to counterbalance weak demand elsewhere, notably in jewellery (-21%), bars and coins (-36%) and purchases by central banks (-51%).
Source: World Gold Council
IOSCO consults on Other CRA Products and their use by market participants
November 7, 2016--The Board of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) today published a consultation report titled Other CRA Products, which seeks further insight into how market participants use non-traditional, products or services offered by credit rating agencies (CRAs).
Source: IOSCO
Asset managers confront ethnic diversity problem
November 6, 2016--Fund houses tackle chronic underrepresentation of minorities in their industry.
Source: FT.com
Paris climate agreement enters into force
November 5, 2016--The Paris Agreement on climate change entered legally into force Friday following the EU's ratification, just days before the start of the UN climate conference in Marrakesh, Morocco.
The historic event comes less than a year after the landmark agreement was adopted.
Source: eubusiness.com
WGC-Market Update: Gold price rallies ahead of US election
November 2, 2016--On November 2, 2016 the gold price broke above US$1,300/oz for the first time since early October, as the surprise announcement last Friday October 28th by the FBI relating to Clinton's email probe, injected a new wave of uncertainty into the presidential election.
As investors fly to quality, gold surges The US presidential election has tightened up again, pushing...
Source: World Gold Council (WGC)
Apollo's creed: Bond bears take on ETF buyers
October 30, 2016--Investment firm says ETF and other index investors are glossing over differences in corporate bonds, distorting their values.
Source: Financial News
IOSCO reports on implementation of G20/FSB recommendations to strengthen securities markets
October 28, 2016--The Board of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) today published a report on the implementation of the G20/FSB post crisis recommendations aimed at strengthening securities markets.
The Implementation Report: G20/FSB Recommendations related to Securities Markets was prepared by IOSCO's Assessment Committee, as part of its G20 Markets Reform Review Project. This effort involved working with the Financial Stability Board (FSB) on analysing the responses to the FSB's 2016 Implementation Monitoring Network (IMN) survey.
view the Implementation Report: G20/FSB Recommendations related to Securities Markets
Source: IOSCO