Investment Update: Using gold to hedge emerging market risk
May 10, 2018--Over the long run, economic growth is a key driver of gold demand, especially in emerging market countries where there is high affinity for gold as jewellery and investment. At the same time, gold tends to perform well in period of crisis.
Having a strategic position in gold helps improve EM portfolio performance as it can be used to:
capture EM upside through gold's link to rising incomes
protect against systemic risks, which reduce portfolio volatility and losses- producing gains in some systemic sell-offs
hedge foreign-exchange risk at a lower cost than traditional currency hedges
Source: World Gold Council
IMF Working Papers-Cross-Border Transmission of Fiscal Shocks: The Role of Monetary Conditions
May 9, 2018--Fiscal stimulus was widely advocated during the global crisis, a period characterized by monetary policy constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) in many countries, in part because of expected positive spillovers.
Standard New Keynesian models predict the cross-border transmission of fiscal shocks is stronger when monetary policy is constrained in recipients. However, the empirical evidence is scarce. This paper bridges this gap by looking at the impact of fiscal shocks in systemic (source) economies on output and demand components in a large group of (recipient) countries, under different monetary policy conditions. Empirical results are compared to simulations with a state-of-the-art estimated open-economy New Keynesian model. Our results corroborate model predictions, finding larger spillovers when recipients are at the ELB, driven by stronger responses of investment and consumption relative to normal times.
Source: IMF
ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis: Gold ETPs took the lions share of flows amidst the ongoing risk-off environment
May 9, 2018--Gold ETP inflows surged to their highest level at US$62.8mn in 25 weeks after a tepid jobs report.
Gold ETPs took the lions share of flows after a tepid jobs report and ongoing trade tensions.
Source: etfsecurities.com
World Gold Council-Gold-backed ETFs had their strongest inflows since early 2017
May 9, 2018--Global gold-backed ETFs holdings added 72.2 tonnes(t) to 2,481t in April. This is the strongest month of net inflows in more than a year.
Growth in global holdings was led by significant North American and European inflows and supported by a small increase in Asia.
ETF inflows were steady throughout the month even though the gold price retraced early gains, finishing April 1% down, after reaching an intra-day high of approximately US$1,360/oz mid-month.
Source: World Gold Council
World Bank-Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, May 2018: Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain
May 8, 2018--With growth in Europe and Central Asia likely at its peak, this report addresses two questions. How well is the region prepared for an expected slowdown? How well has the economic upswing been used to adjust to the digital revolution? The report specifically focuses on cryptocurrency and blockchain activities in the region.
Source: World Bank
SPDR Blog- April ETF Flows: Will Markets' Sideways Climb Persist?
May 7, 2018--Rock climbing is a physically and mentally demanding sport that tests one's strength, endurance, agility and mental control. Such a complex and high-risk activity makes technique critical. The rock's façade may require the climber to move sideways or backwards before advancing to find better footing and form a strong base before pivoting to the next move.
Markets climbed sideways in April, struggling to find their footing and searching for the next catalyst to propel them further up the mountain. Global equities bounced around all month, finishing with a gain of less than 1%, while bonds posted a 0.74% loss. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note broke past 3% but ended the month lower.
Source: SPDR.com
DECPG Global Weekly
May 4, 2018--TAKING STOCK
U.S. non-farm job growth rebounded in April; Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold
Euro Area GDP growth slowed in 18Q1; inflation decelerated in April
Japan's consumer sentiment worsened in April
China's manufacturing PMIs were broadly steady in April
EMDE currencies and stocks fell in April
U.S. non-farm job growth rebounded in April; Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold. U.S. non-farm payrolls expanded by 164,000 in April, somewhat below expectations, while March numbers were revised up to 135,000 from an earlier estimate of 103,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent in April after staying at 4.1 percent for six straight months. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose 2.6 percent (y/y), the same pace as in March.
Source: World Bank
World Economic Forum-Maximizing the Return on Digital Investments
May 3, 2018--Digital technologies offer new ways for companies to grow and be more productive. However, it is not completely clear how investments in new technologies impact productivity.
This White Paper addresses that issue by analysing the business value impact of new technology investments and providing recommendations for maximizing that value. It includes an econometric analysis of the productivity impact of new technologies using data from a sample of over 16,000 companies from 14 industries and an analysis, through interviews and workshops with industry leaders, of key enablers and execution principles to maximize the return on digital investments.
view the World Economic Forum-Maximizing the Return on Digital Investments white paper
Source: World Economic Forum
World Gold Council-Gold Demand Trends Q1 2018
May 3, 2018--Soft start to 2018: Q1 demand down 7%
Gold demand of 973.5t was the lowest Q1 since 2008. The main cause was a fall in investment,demand for gold bars and gold-backed ETFs, partly due to range-bound gold prices.
Jewellery demand was steady at 487.7t, as growth in China and the US compensated for weaker Indian demand. Central banks bought 116.5t of gold (+42% y-o-y). Technology demand extended its recent upward trend, growing 4% y-o-y to 82.1t. The total supply of gold increased by 3% to 1,063.5t, primarily due to a modest increase in producer hedging. Mine production was fractionally higher at 770t.
Source: World Gold Council
Liquidity ousts leverage as the big market worry
May 3, 2018--Some say banks' retreat from their role as market makers will amplify the next crisis.
Source: FT.com