OECD sees stronger world economy, but risks loom large
May 30, 2018--The global economy is experiencing stronger growth, driven by a rebound in trade, higher investment and buoyant job creation, and supported by very accommodative monetary policy and fiscal easing, according to the OECD's latest Economic Outlook.
The pace of global expansion over the 2018-19 period is expected to hover near 4%, which is close to the long-term average.
However, the Outlook also underlines that significant risks posed by trade tensions, financial market vulnerabilities and rising oil prices loom large, and more needs to be done to secure a strong and resilient medium-term improvement in living standards.
Low, albeit gradually rising interest rates coupled with fiscal easing in many countries will continue underpinning the expansion, which will see moderate rises in both wage growth and inflation. Unemployment in the OECD area is expected to drop to the lowest levels since 1980, but more can be done to bring more people into the workforce.
view the OECD Economic Outlook and Interim Economic Outlook
Source: OECD
JPMorgan Dethrones Citigroup to Become Biggest Currency Trader
May 30, 2018--JPMorgan rises from second place in Euromoney survey
Citigroup falls to fifth in survey featuring new methodology
JPMorgan Chase & Co won the title of world's largest currency trader by market share, ending Citigroup Inc.'s four-year run at the top, according to a Euromoney Institutional Investor Plc survey that featured a new methodology.P>view more/a>
Source: Bloomberg
MSCI Weighs Capping India, Brazil Weights Over Investor Access
The two countries, along with Turkey and South Korea, are "potential future examples" of markets whose weights could be capped on MSCI indexes, the New York-based company said in a presentation on its website Wednesday.
Source: Bloomberg
New food index sets roadmap for better health and sustainability; meat and fish companies worth $152 billion labelled 'high risk'
Major suppliers to McDonalds and KFC, including Chinese firm Fujian Sunner and Indian firm Venky’s, among those graded 'high risk'. Sanderson Farms, third largest poultry producer in the US, also given bottom--tier ranking.
Source: fairr.org
World Economic Forum-It's not about the technology. Faster, better internet needs different financing models
To connect the as yet unconnected around the world to the internet is only a first step towards ensuring that all societies participate in an increasingly digital world economy. Best-connected users benefit from internet capacity that is 200 times greater than that of the worst-connected in parts of Africa and Asia. Those left behind will not benefit from many of the productivity innovations brought by the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Closing that gap is not a matter of technology. The technical solutions are available and time-tested. What's needed to help countries improve their internet infrastructure are new sources of financing and various types of financing models. view the Financing a Forward-Looking Internet for All report
Source: World Economic Forum
Deloitte-New tech on the block Planning for blockchain in the Retail and Consumer Packaged Goods industries
While we fully expect blockchain technology to achieve widespread, mainstream adoption in these sectors sooner rather than later, we firmly believe that long-term, sustainable success is only possible through careful planning and prioritisation of work programmes. The ability of blockchain to track, trace, and authenticate products, record contracts, guarantee the movement of information and record transactions means it can be put to use across the entire value chain, with the benefits consequently being passed on to the consumer in the form of savings, increased trust and transparency, and safer and higher quality products.
Source: Deloitte
FTSE Russell launches 2018 STEP Change Initiative
Reaffirms FTSE Russell's 15+ year commitment to promoting sustainable investment
FTSE Russell, the global index, analytics and data provider, today launches STEP Change, its Stewardship, Transition and Engagement Program initiative, which aims to help drive better global standards in sustainable investment.
Source: FTSE Russell
IMF Working Papers-On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism
To examine this question, we look at the medium-run effects of instances of over-optimism or caution in IMF forecasts. To isolate the causal effect of over-optimism we take an instrumental variables approach, where we exploit variation provided by the allocation of IMF Mission Chiefs across countries. As a necessary first step, we document that IMF Mission Chiefs tend to systematically differ in their individual degrees of forecast-optimism or caution. The mechanism that transforms over-optimism into a later recession seems to run through higher debt accumulation, both public and private. Our findings illustrate the potency of unjustified optimism and underline the importance of basing economic forecasts upon realistic medium-term prospects. view the IMF Working Papers-On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism
Source: IMF
DECPG Global Monthly-May 2018
Oil prices rose amid heightened geopolitical concerns.
Special Focus: Drivers of the rise in oil prices
The outlook for oil prices in 2018 is uncertain, and depends on the reach of the sanctions on Iran, the prospects for production in Venezuela, and a possible supply response from OPEC. By 2019 the removal of capacity constraints should facilitate increases in U.S. shale oil production, which is likely to weigh on prices.
Source: World Bank
Time to Move from FAANGs to SEPTICS?
Not so with today's "nifty" group, the FAANGs: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google's parent, Alphabet. And being in or out of them will be critical for U.S. equity success in coming years.
Source: WisdomTree
May 30, 2018--Korea and Turkey may also be hit, a client presentation shows
MSCI will consult its clients with results due by Dec. 31
MSCI Inc., one of the world's biggest index compilers, is placing emerging markets including India and Brazil on notice for limiting investor access
May 30, 2018--New index, backed by $5.9 trillion investor network, analyses 60 global intensive farming companies on health, environmental and social issues
60% of meat and fish companies in the Index-36 large companies worth $152 billion-are categorized as 'high risk' by research aimed at world's largest investors.
Sector is creating a health risk by not responding to antibiotics crisis: 77% of sector (46 companies worth $239bn) rank 'high risk' on antibiotics stewardship, with little or no measures in place to reduce excessive use of antibiotics-despite emerging regulation on issue.
Index also highlights global best practices in areas such as greenhouse gas emissions and alternative proteins. Norwegian firm Marine Harvest is top ranked company, with Europe-based aquaculture producers leading the sector on sustainability.
May 30, 2018--Best-connected users have 200 times greater internet capacity than do users in parts of Africa and Asia. By 2040, closing the connectivity gap will require a $1 trillion investment
There is a disconnect between the exponential growth of internet use, infrastructure demands of next-generation technologies and current financing models
New World Economic Forum report highlights latest findings of Internet for All project.
May 30, 2018--A new insight report explores the potential for blockchain technology to underpin a transformation in the retail and consumer packaged goods value chain.
May 30, 2018--Stewardship, Transition and Engagement Program (STEP) for Change initiative issued today alongside new detailed analysis on the size and scale of the Green Economy
STEP Change to help drive better global standards in sustainable investment
New tool for listed companies launched today to enable ESG comparisons against their peers
Growing numbers of investors now routinely considering stewardship and sustainability themes as core investment priorities
Green economy now represents 6% of the market capitalisation of global listed companies – approximately US$4 trillion
May 30, 2018--Summary:
Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or does over-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we provide evidence that recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countries where past growth expectations have been overly optimistic.
May 29, 2018--Overview
Growth stumbled in many countries in 18Q1. The deceleration was most noticeable in advanced economies, but emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) were also affected.
The rise in the U.S. dollar has been accompanied by financial market pressure on a few emerging markets, but the stress remains contained at present.
Oil prices have more than doubled since their trough in 2016, reflecting strong global demand and production restraint, as well as, more recently, geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.
May 28, 2018--A half-century ago, when investors fell in love with the "Nifty Fifty," the darling U.S. mega-caps of the era that many advised to buy and hold forever, they at least had the ability to choose from among companies spanning numerous industries (companies like PepsiCo, Schlumberger, Pfizer, etc., were in completely different businesses).
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