An Imbalance in Global Banks' Dollar Funding
June 12, 2018--For companies and investors outside the United States, the dollar is often the currency of choice. Surprisingly, though, US banks play only a limited role in lending dollars to international borrowers.
Most of the $7 trillion in banks' dollar lending outside the United States is handled by banks based in Europe, Japan and elsewhere.
This is significant because these banks can't easily tap the dollars deposited at their US subsidiaries to finance dollar lending outside of the country.
Source: IMF
ETf Securities Weekly Flows Analysis: Likely supply disruptions lead to industrial metals rally
June 11, 2018-- Industrial metal basket ETPs see largest inflows since February. Industrial metals gained a strong tail-wind last week, rising 2.9%, as trade-wars....
Source: ETF Securities
IMF-Fiscal Affairs Department How-To Notes-How to Manage the Fiscal Costs of Natural Disasters
June 11, 2018--Summary:
This how-to note focuses on the management of the fiscal costs associated with natural disaster risks. Unlike other types of fiscal risks (for example, unexpected macroeconomic changes or materialization of contingent liabilities), a natural disaster presents a unique challenge to fiscal risk-management and budget processes because of its exogenous nature and potentially overwhelming scale.
This note discusses how governments can build fiscal resilience against natural hazards and strengthen fiscal management after a disaster, including through budgeting frameworks and other fiscal policies. The note aims to answer three central questions: How large should fiscal buffers be? How should fiscal buffers be built up? How should fiscal buffers be used efficiently and transparently once a natural disaster has struck? These three questions directly relate to fiscal policy, fiscal risk management, and the budget process-all core areas of IMF expertise. To address them, the note focuses on fiscal strategies for financing recovery efforts and considers approaches to mitigate disaster impact. The note also provides guidance on how to conduct regular risk analyses of natural disasters’ potential fiscal consequences and outlines best practices for defining and accounting for the contingent liabilities associated with natural disasters in budgeting frameworks. Finally, the note touches on approaches for risk reduction, disaster risk financing strategies, and risk transfer mechanisms, such as various insurance instruments.
Source: IMF
DECPG Global Weekly
June 8, 2018--TAKING STOCK
The World Bank projects global growth to remain steady in 2018, but to slow over the next two years
U.S. trade deficit fell to a 7-month low in April; non-manufacturing growth picked up in May
Euro Area Q1 GDP growth slowdown confirmed; investor confidence tumbled in June.
Japan Q1 GDP growth revised down; services PMI fell in May
China's export growth edged down in May; foreign reserves fell
The World Bank projects global growth to remain steady in 2018, but to slow over the next two years. According to the World Bank's June 2018 Global Economic Prospects report, released on Tuesday, the global economy will expand by 3.1 percent in 2018, the same pace as in 2017, before gradually slowing down over the next two years. Activity in advanced economies is expected to grow 2.2 percent in 2018, and 2 percent in 2019.
Source: World Bank
Bitcoin trading rules leave Plus500 to make an educated guess
June 7, 2018--ew trading limits may prove tough test for would-be 'professionals'
Attention all bitcoin traders with Plus500 and CMC Markets! A new study from Warwick Business School has found that:
"Cryptocurrency prices are not influenced by any economic factors and instead are driven purely by the mood swing of investors...research studying the weekly trading patterns of 14 of the largest cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin...found no correlation with any economic indicators
Source: FT.com
ESG Water Risk Index launched by Thomas Schumann Capital
June 7, 2018--Thomas Schumann Capital LLC (TSC) has launched a Water Risk Index, a smart beta solution for asset allocation, based on its own proprietary models.
Source: etfexpress.com
Exchange traded fund boom increases operational challenges for asset servicers
June 6, 2018---Latest Temenos Multifonds Every Fund Survey finds:
78% of the asset management industry believe ETFs will sustain current growth rates
62% predict increasing convergence between ETFs and mutual funds
Operational systems seen as the top challenge and risk
1 in 4 feel asset servicers are not keeping pace with ETF growth and complexity
Temenos (SIX: TEMN), the banking software company, today announces the launch of its 2018 Every Fund Survey: ETF challenges and opportunities. With ETFs breaking through the US$5 trillion mark at the beginning of this year, the increasing complexity of products is ratcheting up the technical and operational pressures on asset servicers, such as fund administrators, according to the findings of the latest Temenos Multifonds Every Fund Survey.
view the ETF challenges and opportunities -The Temenos Multifonds Every Fund Survey 2018-Part 1
Source: Temeno
BetaShares Global Market Outlook: Recovery continues
June 6, 2018--Month in Review-easing interest rate risk supports stocks
Global equities continued their rebound in May, after good gains in April, as interest rate and geopolitical risks eased somewhat, while the tail end of the US corporate earnings remained strong.
The MSCI All-Country Net-Return Index returned 0.8% in local-currency terms, after a gain of 1.8% in May. Forward earnings also rose 1.4%, implying the price-to-forward earnings ratio eased slightly from 14.9 to 14.8 – down from a recent high of 16.4 at end-January. On a month-end basis, the MSCI Index is now down only 3.2% from its January peak.
Source: BetaShares
19 Global foreign direct investment flows fell sharply in 2017
June 6, 2018--Negative trend is sign of slowdown in international production and global value chains, World Investment Report 2018 reveals.
Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows fell by 23% in 2017, to $1.43 trillion from $1.87 trillion in 2016, according to UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2018. The decline is in stark contrast to other macroeconomic variables, which saw substantial improvement in 2017.
"Downward pressure on FDI and the slowdown in global value chains are a major concern for policymakers worldwide, and especially in developing countries," UNCTAD Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi said.
Source: UNCTAD.org
World Gold Council-Global gold-backed ETF inflows driven by Europe and Asia
June 6, 2018--Global gold-backed ETF holdings added 15 tonnes(t) to 2,484t in May. Europe and Asia drove inflows as European funds have responded strongly in the past two months. North American fund flows reversed their early 2018 trend as they lost 2.3% of assets, likely a result of the volatile prices in the gold market which left gold lower by 60bps (in dollar terms) on the month.
Volatility and weakness in the gold market were largely driven by a stronger dollar (DXY +2.3% on the month). However, USD-hedged gold was higher by 1.4% on the month. This highlights our view that having some allocation to USD-hedged gold helps risk-adjusted returns by lowering price volatility in periods when currency prices fluctuate.
Source: World Gold Council (WGC)