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WTO-Goods barometer declines further, hinting at fourth quarter trade slump
March 1, 2023--World merchandise trade growth appears to have lost momentum in the fourth quarter of 2022 and is likely to remain weak in the first quarter of 2023, according to the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer issued on 1 March. The overall barometer index continues to point to weakening trade growth in volume terms after falling to 92.2, down from 96.2 in the previous release and well below the baseline value of 100.
The volume of world merchandise trade was up 5.6% in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the same quarter in the previous year. Meanwhile, cumulative year-on-year growth for the first three quarters of 2022 stood at 4.4%, above the WTO's forecast released last October of 3.5% for the whole year. A downturn in the fourth quarter would bring actual trade growth more in line with the WTO's forecast for 2022. Any slowdown may prove to be short lived since container throughput of Chinese ports and new export orders from Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) have already started to pick up.
In Major Economic Shocks, Best Response Combines All-Out, Large-Scale Policies
February 27, 2023--Bank lending grew faster in countries with policy packages combining large fiscal, monetary, and prudential measures.
Economists will be studying the pandemic for generations to learn from the dramatic global downturn and the ensuing credit crunch, but one important lesson about the scope of action needed to contain the next global crisis is already coming into focus.
During the pandemic, countries often used all-out responses that combined large fiscal, monetary, and prudential policies like grants, credit facilities, and relaxed capital requirements. As we demonstrate in a new working paper, this kind of expansive response may be needed to support corporate borrowing and credit growth in major future crises that combine global supply and demand shocks.
A woman dies every two minutes due to pregnancy or childbirth: UN agencies
February 23, 2023--New data show major setbacks for maternal health in many parts of the world, highlighting stark disparities in healthcare access
Every two minutes, a woman dies during pregnancy or childbirth, according to the latest estimates released in a report by United Nations (UN) agencies today. This report, Trends in maternal mortality, reveals alarming setbacks for women's health over recent years, as maternal deaths either increased or stagnated in nearly all regions of the world.
WTO note finds global trade resilient following one year of war in Ukraine
February 23, 2023--A new WTO information note released on 23 February reports that global trade remained resilient and performed better than pessimistic predictions for 2022 as economies greatly affected by the war in Ukraine found alternative sources of supply.
For the longer-term outlook, new WTO simulations show the importance of strengthening the multilateral trading system, with least-developed countries likely to be hardest hit if international cooperation were to break down.
The note titled"One year of war in Ukraine: Assessing the impact on global trade and development" estimates that trade growth in 2022 was above the WTO trade forecast of 3% issued in April and substantially higher than its estimates for more pessimistic scenarios for the year. The stability of global trade was also evident in global supply chains, confirmed by the 4% year-on-year growth of trade in intermediate goods in the second quarter of 2022.
Is blockchain really secure? Here are four pressing cyber threats you must consider
February 21, 2023--Blockchain is a key technology of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, creating new innovative opportunities and disrupting existing systems.
Decentralized digital transformation is achieved by creating trust between parties and eliminating intermediaries, thus facilitating easy data sharing.
But while blockchain uses security primitives such as cryptography, extra efforts must be made to secure its architecture and mitigate threats.
Blockchain is a key technology of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, blurring the lines between physical and digital spaces. It creates new innovative opportunities and disrupts existing businesses by enabling decentralized digital transformation.
This decentralization is achieved by creating trust between parties and eliminating intermediaries, to facilitate efficient data sharing and value exchange.
Blockchain is commonly associated with bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, but its use cases go beyond financial applications to include various business domains such as agriculture, mining, manufacturing, energy, supply chains and healthcare.
Bond ETFs suck liquidity out of market in a crisis, academics say
February 20, 2023--Paper contradicts prevailing view that exchange traded funds help find fixed-income buyers and sellers in times of stress
Fixed-income exchange traded funds can suck the liquidity out of corporate bonds during times of market stress, potentially worsening price dislocations during crises, academics have claimed.
Bond ETFs are generally perceived as innovations that have enhanced liquidity and aided price discovery during market ruptures, offering a superior option than attempting to trade in the underlying bonds.
IMF F&D-Gold, Silver, and Monetary Stability
February 19, 2023--An almost-forgotten 19th century episode shows that international cooperation can be essential for a stable global monetary system
The year 1873 marks a turning point in monetary history. In July, the new German Empire Reichstag replaced an array of silver-based currencies with the gold mark.
In September, the Paris mint limited silver coinage, ending the double gold-silver monetary standard France had maintained for decades. And earlier that year, the US Congress legislated the phasing out of the temporary paper currency of the Civil War years, to replace it with a gold dollar once the government resumed specie (coin) payments (which happened in 1879).
With the United Kingdom already on gold, by the end of the 1870s all the world's leading industrial nations used gold currencies. Silver-which, until 1873, had been on an equal footing with gold-became a secondary currency metal used mostly by periphery countries.
40% of the Forest 500 have yet to set a single policy on deforestation
February 15, 2023-Global Canopy's 9th annual Forest 500 report and ranking finds that the companies and financial institutions with the most influence on deforestation are taking insufficient action on deforestation, with the finance sector "woefully behind".
Global Canopy's latest Forest 500 report and ranking, which tracks the policies and performance of the 350 most influential companies and 150 financial institutions most exposed to deforestation risk in their supply chains and investments, has been published.
The latest assessments show very slow progress on deforestation action.
None of the companies and financial institutions in the Forest 500 are deforestation-free, and 40% (201 companies and financial institutions) haven't set a single policy on deforestation.
Ending deforestation is essential to achieving urgent global goals on climate, nature and human rights. Deforestation impacts global temperatures, emissions, biodiversity, rainfall, displacement of communities and food security.
Emerging market and Europe equity ETFs jolt back into life
February 9, 2023--Funds enjoy highest monthly net inflows for a year while investors pull money from US
Emerging market and Europe-focused equity exchange traded funds both enjoyed their highest monthly net inflows for a year in January even as US equity ETFs suffered their first outflow since April 2022.
The flows, recorded in data from BlackRock, reflect a tentative reversal in global stock market leadership. They show Wall Street -long the pre-eminent driver of worldwide equity returns-handing over the baton as fears of a European recession recede and a weaker dollar allows emerging markets their time in the sun.
Low-emissions sources are set to cover almost all the growth in global electricity demand in the next three years
February 8, 2023--The world's electricity demand growth slowed only slightly in 2022, despite headwinds from the energy crisis, and is expected to accelerate in the years ahead
Renewables are set to dominate the growth of the world's electricity supply over the next three years as together with nuclear power they meet the vast majority of the increase in global demand through to 2025, making significant rises in the power sector's carbon emissions unlikely, according to a new IEA report.
After slowing slightly last year to 2% amid the turmoil of the global energy crisis and exceptional weather conditions in some regions, the growth in world electricity demand is expected to accelerate to an average of 3% over the next three years, the IEA's Electricity Market Report 2023 finds. Emerging and developing economies in Asia are the driving forces behind this faster pace, which is a step up from average growth of 2.4% during the years before the pandemic.