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Spain: Selected Issues

July 29, 2011--I. HOW MUCH HAS SPAIN’S PRIVATE SECTOR REBALANCED?
EXITING FROM A CREDIT AND HOUSING BOOM1
Rebalancing is underway, with flows adjusting significantly, but with more modest progress on reducing stocks. The weight of construction and real estate in GDP, employment, and new lending has largely adjusted from previous excessive levels, but will likely remain weak as overhangs (including of housing prices and unsold units) persist. Private sector debt levels have stabilized at high levels – how much they have to fall is unclear, but it could be significant and long lasting.

1. The Spanish economy has built several imbalances that markets have identified as potential vulnerabilities (fiscal deficits/debt, external deficit/debt, high household and corporate debt/ borrowing, the oversize construction sector, low private savings). These are being unwound. Until they have fully done so, the economy will face headwinds. But what exactly were the imbalances, how much have they unwound, how much further have they to go, and how much longer will this take?

2. Rebalancing is a concept in search of a theory. There is limited literature on rebalancing per se. There is an ongoing discussion on rebalancing at the global level, for example within the G20, but the country level discussion of rebalancing is incipient. 2 Still, if rebalancing is sometimes hard to define (what does it cover? what is the balance we are looking for? have economies ever been balanced?), imbalances are slightly easier to identify.

view the Spain: Selected Issues paper

Source: IMF


Moody's Sees Contagion Risks, Puts Spain Under Review

July 29, 2011-- Rise in funding costs remains central concern
Regional deficit risk is a big factor
Greek bailout package seen as ratings negative for Spain, others
Moody's Investors Service Friday put Spain's Aa2 ratings on review for possible downgrade, saying the euro zone's fourth-largest economy faces rising contagion risks as the area's debt crisis may keep funding costs on the upswing.

The warning hit Spanish debt. In early trade Friday, the yield on Spain's 10-year government bond was up 1.7 percentage points to 6.136%. The spread between this Spanish bond and similar German debt widened to 354.2 basis points.

In comments that underline concerns over the impact of last week's deal for a second Greek bailout package on other troubled European economies, Moody's said the arrangement--which includes provisions for private-sector debt holders to swap Greek bonds for others with longer maturities--may fail to remove pressure on Spanish ratings. Moody's added the Greek agreement has mostly negative implications for sovereign debt in the euro zone as a whole.

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Source: Wall Street Journal


Flash estimate - July 2011 Euro area inflation estimated at 2.5%

July 29, 2011--Euro area1 annual inflation2 is expected to be 2.5% in July 2011 according to a flash estimate issued by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. It was 2.7% in June3.

Computation of flash estimates

Euro area inflation is measured by the Monetary Union Index of Consumer Prices (MUICP). To compute the MUICP flash estimates, Eurostat uses early price information relating to the reference month from Member States for which data are available4 as well as early information about energy prices.

The flash estimation procedure for the MUICP combines historical information with partial information on price developments in the most recent months to give a total index for the euro area. No detailed breakdown is available. Experience has shown the procedure to be reliable (19 times exactly anticipating the inflation rate and 5 times differing by 0.1 over the last two years). Further information can be found in Eurostat News Release 113/2001 of 5 November 2001.

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Source: Eurostat


STOXX Limited launches Global Rare Earth Index

July 28, 2011--STOXX Limited, the market-moving provider of innovative, tradable and global index concepts, today introduced the STOXX Global Rare Earth Index, which consists of companies that generate at least 30% of their revenues in the rare earth sector globally.

The importance of what is known as “rare earth” metals is growing as these elements are used in a multitude of high-tech products such as mobile telephones, hard drives, lasers and electric car batteries.

The STOXX Rare Earth Index is designed to underlie exchange-traded funds and other investable products, as well as to be used to assess the performance of global equity portfolios.

“The demand for rare earth metals is increasing exponentially as they are used in a wide range of modern technology, from iPods to hybrid cars, wind turbines and batteries,” said Hartmut Graf, chief executive officer, STOXX Limited. “With the launch of the STOXX Global Rare Earth Index, we offer market participants an innovative, transparent and completely rules-based tool to participate in the performance of companies that are involved in this rapidly growing sector.”

Rare earth metals are part of a group of 17 chemically similar elements found in the earth’s crust. Despite their name, rare earth metals are more abundant than gold, platinum or lead. The term “rare” is derived from the fact that these elements are rarely found in high concentration in a single reserve and are primarily mined in China at present. The metals are found almost exclusively in connection with other minerals or metals, as they are often extracted as a by-product in the mining of other raw materials.

All companies that generate at least 30% of their revenues in the rare earth sector globally, or are estimated to do so based on their current operating activities, and have an average daily value traded (ADVT) of at least 1 million US dollars are eligible for inclusion in the index. The rare earth sector covers companies with operations involving exploration, extraction, transport, processing or any other business involving any of the following 17 rare earth elements: Scandium, Yttrium, Lanthanum, Lutetium, Ytterbium, Thulium, Erbium, Holmium, Dysprosium, Terbium, Gadolinium, Europium, Samarium, Promethium, Neodymium, Praseodymium, and Cerium.

The STOXX Global Rare Earth Index is weighted by free-float adjusted market capitalization. The index currently consists of 14 components. It is rebalanced quarterly, and component review takes place semi-annually in March and September. The new index is available in price, gross and net return versions in euro and U.S. dollar. Daily history is available back to June 19, 2009.

For further information on the STOXX Global Rare Earth Index, please visit www.stoxx.com.

Source: STOXX


HSBC adds trio of physical ETFs to GEMs range

July 28, 2011--HSBC is launching three emerging market exchange traded funds, focusing on Hong Kong, global emerging Europe and global emerging markets.
HSBC head of ETFs Farley Thomas says the Hong Kong ETF will be based on the Hang Seng index.

He says all three will be physical ETFs rather than swap-based. Thomas says: “There will be regulatory action at some point on swap-based ETFs. You can track most markets physically and trading in this simple way has real value.

“HSBC has a good insight into how emerging markets work and investors expect us to have a good line-up.”

HSBC is also considering launching an India ETF but Thomas says it is more complicated to create a physical ETF for the country as it is problematic because of tax issues.

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Source: Money Marketing


Growth Review -UK Economy

July 28, 2011--The Government’s economic policy objective is to achieve strong, sustainable and balanced growth that is more evenly shared across the country and between industries. In November 2010 the Growth Review was launched by the Chancellor and Business Secretary. As part of this, the Chancellor and Business Secretary are undertaking a thorough assessment of policy that is holding back growth of investment and hiring by business – both by looking at cross-economy issues and through considering the challenges faced by particular sectors.

It is a rolling programme, to last the whole of the Parliament, and it calls on business and industry to challenge government departments on the measures they are taking to allow the private sector to flourish.

Phase one
The first phase of the Growth Review reported alongside the Budget in the Plan for Growth. Departments will be accountable for implementation of more than 100 actions across 15 themes, and progress will be published in monthly progress updates of their Business Plans, available from http://transparency.number10.gov.uk/transparency/srp/ .

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view the The Plan for Growth

Source: HM Treasury


Deutsche Börse AG achieves earnings growth in Q2/2011

EBIT improves 7 percent to €276.5 million Costs down 19 percent year-on-year, at €289.2 million Sales revenue of €528.6 million Earnings per share up 11 percent to €0.96
July 28, 2011--: On Thursday, Deutsche Börse AG published its figures for the second quarter of 2011. Compared to the same period in the previous year earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) rose by 7 percent to €276.5 million. The Group’s total costs decreased to €289.2 million, 19 percent below the costs in the previous year.

Sales revenue amounted to €528.6 million, 6 percent lower than in the second quarter last year, when trading volumes were particularly high due to market volatility. Earnings per share climbed 11 percent to €0.96 compared to the previous year.

Sales revenue for the first half of the year rose slightly compared with the prior year, from €1,083.6 million in H1/2010 to €1,087.2 million in the first six months of 2011. Total costs in the first half of 2011 amounted to €560.5 million, a year-on-year decline of 14 percent. As a result, EBIT improved by 18 percent to €592.8 million and earnings per share rose by 23 percent to €2.10.

Gregor Pottmeyer, Deutsche Börse AG’s CFO and Executive Board member for Human Resources: “We maintained our rigorous cost discipline in the second quarter of 2011, enabling us to further optimize costs for the half-year period. Coupled with a slight rise in sales revenue, this increased earnings significantly in the first half of 2011.”

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Source: Deutsche Börse


Source ETFs pass $10bn asset milestone

July 27, 2011--Source, the specialist exchange traded products provider, has announced that its assets under management have passed the $10bn milestone in a little over two years since the launch of the company in April 2009.

“This landmark is proof that our approach is working,” said Ted Hood, chief executive of Source.

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Source: FT.com


July 2011: Business Climate Indicator continues to decline in the euro area

July 28, 2011--The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area fell for the fifth month in a row in July 2011. The current level of the indicator remains comparatively high, but the steady fall observed since March indicates that euro-area industry has entered a phase of growth moderation.

The drop in the BCI in July reflects primarily weakening production expectations and worsening assessments of production trends observed in recent months. These developments went along with managers being more pessimistic about overall order books and export order books. Appraisal of stocks continued to increase from historic lows.

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Source: Europa


July 2011: Economic sentiment drops in both the EU and the euro area

July 28, 2011--The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the EU and the euro area declined in July but remains above its long-term average. It fell, by 2.2 points respectively, to 102.4 in the EU and to 103.2 in the euro area.

In the euro area the fall resulted from a decline in confidence in all sectors, with strong losses in industry and services. In the EU confidence also declined notably in industry, retail trade and among consumers, with marginal falls in services and an improvement in the construction sector.

Most Member States recorded a drop in sentiment. Among the seven largest EU Members States, confidence in Italy fell the most (-4.5), followed by Spain (-2.7). The confidence indicator fell less significantly in the Netherlands (-2.1), Germany (-1.8), the UK (-1.4) and France (-0.5), while it improved slightly in Poland (+0.4). In July, the ESI remains above its long-term average only in Germany and France.

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Source: Europa


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