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Forecasts for the UK economy: June 2019

June 19, 2019--Forecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.
Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury's own views.

It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review.

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Source: gov.uk


Invesco expands ETF range with three ESG products

June 19, 2019--'Passive holdings still making an active difference'
The new ETFs will track indices where stock weightings are determined by each company's ESG score, rather than size alone.

The Invesco MSCI ESG Universal Screened UCITS ETFs will track customised versions of the MSCI ESG Universal indices, with a choice of geographical exposures to the USA, Europe and the wider globe.

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Source: investmentweek.co.uk


Vanguard trades blows in fund fee war with M&G.

June 19, 2019-Cut-throat competition escalates in UK investment market.
The fee for the Vanguard Global Balanced fund, which holds a mix of equities and bonds, has also been cut from 60bp to 48bp.

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Source: FT.com


Deutsche Bank reportedly plans revamp with 50EURO B "bad bank"

June 17, 2019--Deutsche Bank plans to place some €50 billion in assets, comprised mostly of long-dated derivatives, into a "bad bank" and slash its non-EU equity and rates trading, sources say.

Germany's biggest lender wins cautious support for plan to shift €50bn of unwanted assets into a 'bad bank'



Source: FT.com


Uncertainty over output gap and structural-balance estimates remains elevated

June 17, 2019--The EU fiscal framework strongly relies on the structural budget balance indicator, which aims to measure the 'underlying' position of the budget. But this indicator is not observed, only estimations can be made. This post shows that estimates of the European Commission, the IMF, the OECD and national governments widely differ from each other and all estimates are subject to very large annual revisions.

The EU should get rid of the fiscal rules that rely on structural balance estimates and use this opportunity to fundamentally reform its fiscal framework. The European fiscal framework involves a complex set of rules and indicators. An important indicator is the so-called structural balance of the general government, which aims to measure the underlying position of the budget balance. Its estimation tries to exclude the impact of the economic cycle (e.g. tax revenues are smaller than usual in an economic downturn) and one-off measures (like bank recapitalisation costs).

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Source: bruegel.org


Making the Euro Area More Resilient Before the Next Recession Hits

June 17, 2019--Growth in the euro area rebounded earlier this year, but it remains fragile, while risks have increased. Now is a good time for euro area economies to strengthen their ability to weather any future economic difficulties.
A new IMF staff paper looks at the resilience of euro area countries and finds that they have had more frequent and severe recessions than other advanced economies over the past 20 years.

An even greater cause for concern is that differences between member countries' growth and unemployment rates after euro area-wide downturns have widened. This widening was most stark following the 2008 global financial crisis.

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Source: IMF


ESMA Publishes 2018 Annual Report

June 17, 2019--The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has published its Annual Report, which reviews its achievements against its 2018 priorities and objectives in meeting its mission of enhancing investor protection and promoting stable and orderly financial markets in the European Union.

In 2018 ESMA's key achievements and highlights included its work on:
Promoting Supervisory Convergence
Brexit preparations including the work of the Supervisory Coordination Network; and
Product Intervention Measures-first use of ESMA's powers to restrict the sale and marketing of CFDs to retail investors and ban binary options;

Assessing risks to investors, markets and financial stability

MiFID II/MiFIR Data Management-successful data collection, processing and analysis with publication of key calculations and data under MiFID II/MiFIR;

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Source: ESMA


Monday Morning Memo: Review of the European ETF Market, May 2019

June 17, 2019--The promoters of ETFs in Europe enjoyed net inflows for May. Despite these, the assets under management in the European ETF industry decreased due to the negative performance of the underlying markets. In more detail, the assets under management in the European ETF industry decreased from €746.7 bn as of April 30, 2019, to €721.6 bn at the end of May.

The decrease of €25.1 bn for May was driven by the performance of the underlying markets (-€27.4 bn), while net sales contributed inflows of €2.3 bn to assets under management in the European ETF segment.

With regard to the overall number of products, it was not surprising equity funds (€494.1 bn) held the majority of assets, followed by bond funds (€196.8 bn), commodity products (€18.5 bn), alternative UCITS products (€6.8 bn), money market funds (€3.6 bn), mixed-asset funds (€1.7 bn), and "other" funds (€0.1 bn).

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Source: Refinitiv


New SPDR ETFs on Xetra: US government bonds and smart beta investment each with currency hedging

June 17, 2019--Since Monday two new Exchange Traded Funds issued by State Street Global Advisors are tradable via Xetra and Börse Frankfurt.
The SPDR S&P U.S. Dividend Aristocrats EUR Hdg UCITS ETF (Dist) allows investors to participate in the performance of US shares with high dividend payments. The Smart-Beta-ETF weights these shares based on the respective income levels and is tradable as a distributing and currency-hedged share class.

The SPDR ICE BofAML 0-5 Year EM USD Government Bond EUR Hdg UCITS ETF (Acc) offers a replica of US dollar-denominated emerging markets government bonds issued in the local US market and the Eurobond markets. The underlying index considers bonds with a fixed interest rate and a residual maturity of less than five years.

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Source: Deutsche Börse Cash Market


Ireland: Selected Issues

June 17, 2019--PERSONAL INCOME TAX REFORM: PAST AND PRESENT1
Ireland's personal income tax has undergone significant changes in the last fifteen years. From reductions during the boom, through introduction during the crisis of an additional tax-the Universal Social Charge that broadened the tax base and increased revenues-, to tax reductions with tax base narrowing in the recent recovery years.

These changes resulted in a currently less efficient personal income tax system, with a high administrative burden and narrow tax base. Consideration should be given to an income tax reform, aiming at a broader tax base, reduced disincentives to work more, while preserving the overall tax yield and progressivity.

view the IMF Ireland: Selected Issues report

Source: IMF


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Americas


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Asia ETF News


August 24, 2026 Australia Launches First Bond & Credit Index Futures
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August 20, 2026 Hong Kong First! Global X Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Enhanced Income ETF
August 19, 2026 Mirae Asset Securities Launches WTI Leverage ETNs in First Partnership with Solactive
August 11, 2026 Korea Investment Launches ETF Bundling Five Strategic Industries

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Global ETP News


August 25, 2026 STARTRADER Adds 30 U.S. Stock and ETF CFDs as 2026 Product Expansion Accelerates
August 25, 2026 The $150 Trillion Global Economy in 2030
August 25, 2026 Clear Street Launches Electronic Execution Across Europe and Asia-Pacific
August 24, 2026 Active ETF Assets Reach Record US$ 2.59 Trillion as Industry Posts Highest-Ever YTD Inflows of US$ 590 Billion at end July
August 21, 2026 ETFGI Reports Global Thematic ETF Industry Gathered a Record USD 43.99 Billion in July as YTD Net Inflows Reach All-Time High of USD 112.26 Billion

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Middle East ETP News


August 25, 2026 Mideast Stocks: Gulf stock markets muted as investors assess fresh US measures on Iran
August 20, 2026 Mideast Stocks: Most Gulf markets rise as oil gains amid Iran war jitters
August 19, 2026 Saudi economy contracts 4.8% in Q2 as oil output slumps
August 19, 2026 Kuwait's return to bond markets is a sign of resilience
August 05, 2026 Qatar ETF net asset value dips to $109.6mln in H1 2026

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Africa ETF News


August 10, 2026 West Africa growth projected at 4.6% in 2026, remains resilient-AfDB Regional Economic Outlook Report
August 10, 2026 Africa: 'Nigeria's Fintech Ecosystem Has Become One of Africa's Largest'
August 06, 2026 Africa: Zimbabwe Overtakes Nigeria As Africa's Best-Performing Stock Market
August 05, 2026 Nairobi Securities Exchange Plans East Africa's First AI ETF- But Its CEO Is Watching for a Bubble
July 29, 2026 Regional Economic Outlook 2026: Southern Africa Must Mobilise Development Finance at Scale to Close Annual $55 Billion Financing Gap

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ESG and Of Interest News


August 10, 2026 Infographic Ranked: The World's Biggest Mineral Fuel Producers
July 30, 2026 Ranked: The World's Biggest Mineral Producers
July 21, 2026 Sovereign Wealth Funds Need Legal Clarity as Their Scale and Mandates Expand

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White Papers


July 20, 2026 IMF Staff Country Report Singapore: Selected Issues

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