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European Commission-Autumn 2019 Economic Forecast: A challenging road ahead
November 7, 2019--The European economy is now in its seventh consecutive year of growth and is forecast to continue expanding in 2020 and 2021. Labour markets remain strong and unemployment continues to fall. However, the external environment has become much less supportive and uncertainty is running high. This is particularly affecting the manufacturing sector, which is also experiencing structural shifts.
As a result, the European economy looks to be heading towards a protracted period of more subdued growth and muted inflation.
Euro area gross domestic product (GDP) is now forecast to expand by 1.1% in 2019 and by 1.2% in 2020 and 2021. Compared to the Summer 2019 Economic Forecast (published in July), the growth forecast has been downgraded by 0.1 percentage point in 2019 (from 1.2%) and 0.2 percentage points in 2020 (from 1.4%). For the EU as a whole, GDP is forecast to rise by 1.4% in 2019, 2020 and 2021. The forecast for 2020 was also revised down compared to the summer (from 1.6%).
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Source: European Commission
Italy surpasses Greece as euro area's riskiest borrower
November 7, 2019--Yield-hungry investors have snapped up debt from former euro area crisis spots
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Source: FT.com
BOE-Monetary Policy Report-November 2019
November 7, 2019--In a nutshell:
Growth has slowed in the UK and abroad
Inflation is a little below our 2% target
UK and EU flags
Brexit uncertainty has been high
If growth stays weak, interest rates could fall. If growth recovers as expected, rates may need to rise
The interest rate decision
We set interest rates to influence spending in the economy to ensure inflation (the pace of price rises) returns to our 2% target sustainably.
Low and stable inflation supports jobs and growth.
Over the past decade, our economy has needed interest rates to stay very low.
Recently, the UK economy has slowed as firms' uncertainties about Brexit have become entrenched and growth in the world economy has slowed. UK inflation has fallen back to just below our 2% target. This month we have kept interest rates unchanged.
view the Bank Of England-Monetary Policy Report-November 2019
Source: BOE (Bank Of England)
Pace and Sustainability of Turkey's Economic Recovery is Subject to Reducing Uncertainty and Restoring Investor Confidence, Says World Bank
November 5, 2019--The World Bank issued today its new Turkey Economic Monitor (TEM), which takes stock of recent economic developments and provides the World Bank's analysis of economic prospects in Turkey.
Turkey has emerged from a difficult economic period though the real sector remains deeply affected. Over the past twelve months, narrowing current account imbalances, declining external debt of banks, and global monetary easing have helped reduce external risks. The economy started to recover in early 2019 though challenges persist-investment has declined, prices have remained elevated, and unemployment has increased. These factors have hurt households, and poverty may increase slightly in 2019, before declining gradually over the forecast period.
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Source: World Bank
Deutsche Bank appoints global head of Wealth Management
November 4, 2019--Deutsche Bank has appointed Claudio de Sanctis as global head of Deutsche Bank Wealth Management, succeeding Fabrizio Campelli who joins the group Management Board as chief transformation officer.
De Sanctis, who assumes the role with immediate effect, was previously head of Wealth Management in Europe, which serves clients in around 30 countries including Deutsche Bank's home market of Germany. He was also chief country officer of Switzerland, a role he will retain.
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Source: investmenteurope.net
Solactive appoints Head of Product Development and announces further evolution of Management Structure
November 4, 2019--Solactive is pleased to announce the addition of a new senior position to its organization. Peter Diel joined the firm as Head of Product Development on November 1st, 2019, running Solactive's index development departments.
The appointment runs alongside further alignments of responsibilities, while the company keeps evolving its business and organization.
Peter Diel will assume combined responsibility for all three of Solactive’s product development teams across Equity, Fixed Income, and Complex Index Development. The consolidation of responsibilities allows Solactive to frame its processes in favor of higher efficiency and transparency of its index development business. Before joining Solactive, Peter Diel worked for 23 years at DWS and Deutsche Bank, where he has held various management positions, most recently serving as Managing Director in charge of Passive Portfolio Management for institutional clients in Europe and Asia.
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Source Solactive
IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Europe
November 2019
November 4, 2019--Economic activity in Europe hasslowed on the back of weakness in trade and manufacturing. For most of the region, the slowdown remains externally driven. However, some signs of softer domesti, demand have started to appear, especially in investment. Services and domestic consumption have been buoyant so far, but their resilience is tightly linked to labor market conditions, which, despite some easing, remain robust.
On balance, Europe's growth is projected to decline from 2.3 percent in 2018 to 1.4 percent in 2019. A modest recovery is forecast for 2020, with growth reaching 1.8 percent, as global trade is expected to pick up and some economies recover from past stresses. This projection, broadly unchanged from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook, masks significant differences between advanced and emerging Europe. Growth in advanced Europe has been revised down by 0.1 percentage point to 1.3 percent in 2019, while growth in emerging Europe has been revised up by 0.5 percentage point to 1.8 percent.
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Source: IMF
IMF Working Paper-German Bond Yields and Debt Supply: Is There a "Bund Premium"?
November 1, 2019-Summary:
Are Bunds special? This paper estimates the "Bund premium" as the difference in convenience yields between other sovereign safe assets and German government bonds adjusted for sovereign credit risk, liquidity and swap market frictions. A higher premium suggests less substitutability of sovereign bonds.
We document a rise in the "Bund premium" in the post-crisis period. We show that there is a negative relationship of the premium with the relative supply of German sovereign bonds, which is more pronounced for higher maturities and when risk aversion proxied by bond market volatility is high. Going forward, we expect German government debt supply to remain scarce, with important implications for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy.
view the IMF Working Paper-German Bond Yields and Debt Supply: Is There a "Bund Premium"?
Source: IMF
ESMA report sees decrease in prospectus activity for 2018
October 31, 2019--The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), in its annual report on prospectus activity, reports that in 2018 the number of prospectus approvals across the European Economic Area (EEA) decreased by almost 5% compared to 2017 (from 3,567 to 3,390).
This decrease in prospectus approvals follows a decade-long trend observed since the start of the financial crisis.
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Source: ESMA
Climate change: Significant drop in EU emissions in 2018 but further effort needed to reach 2030 target
October 31, 2019--The European Union (EU) cut its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2% in 2018, according to preliminary estimates released today by the European Environment Agency.
However, rising energy consumption continues to hamper progress on the share of energy generated by renewable sources and on energy efficiency. As in previous years, the transport sector remains a particular concern with rising GHG emissions, low uptake of renewable energy sources and insufficient reductions of transport fuels' life-cycle emissions.
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Source: eea.europa.eu
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