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IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Europe
November 2019
November 4, 2019--Economic activity in Europe hasslowed on the back of weakness in trade and manufacturing. For most of the region, the slowdown remains externally driven. However, some signs of softer domesti, demand have started to appear, especially in investment. Services and domestic consumption have been buoyant so far, but their resilience is tightly linked to labor market conditions, which, despite some easing, remain robust.
On balance, Europe's growth is projected to decline from 2.3 percent in 2018 to 1.4 percent in 2019. A modest recovery is forecast for 2020, with growth reaching 1.8 percent, as global trade is expected to pick up and some economies recover from past stresses. This projection, broadly unchanged from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook, masks significant differences between advanced and emerging Europe. Growth in advanced Europe has been revised down by 0.1 percentage point to 1.3 percent in 2019, while growth in emerging Europe has been revised up by 0.5 percentage point to 1.8 percent.
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Source: IMF
IMF Working Paper-German Bond Yields and Debt Supply: Is There a "Bund Premium"?
November 1, 2019-Summary:
Are Bunds special? This paper estimates the "Bund premium" as the difference in convenience yields between other sovereign safe assets and German government bonds adjusted for sovereign credit risk, liquidity and swap market frictions. A higher premium suggests less substitutability of sovereign bonds.
We document a rise in the "Bund premium" in the post-crisis period. We show that there is a negative relationship of the premium with the relative supply of German sovereign bonds, which is more pronounced for higher maturities and when risk aversion proxied by bond market volatility is high. Going forward, we expect German government debt supply to remain scarce, with important implications for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy.
view the IMF Working Paper-German Bond Yields and Debt Supply: Is There a "Bund Premium"?
Source: IMF
ESMA report sees decrease in prospectus activity for 2018
October 31, 2019--The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), in its annual report on prospectus activity, reports that in 2018 the number of prospectus approvals across the European Economic Area (EEA) decreased by almost 5% compared to 2017 (from 3,567 to 3,390).
This decrease in prospectus approvals follows a decade-long trend observed since the start of the financial crisis.
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Source: ESMA
Climate change: Significant drop in EU emissions in 2018 but further effort needed to reach 2030 target
October 31, 2019--The European Union (EU) cut its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2% in 2018, according to preliminary estimates released today by the European Environment Agency.
However, rising energy consumption continues to hamper progress on the share of energy generated by renewable sources and on energy efficiency. As in previous years, the transport sector remains a particular concern with rising GHG emissions, low uptake of renewable energy sources and insufficient reductions of transport fuels' life-cycle emissions.
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Source: eea.europa.eu
Brexit deal would leave Wales-sized hole in UK economy, experts warn
October 30, 2019--October 30, 2019--Economists say Boris Johnson's 'Brexit dividend' does not exist.
Boris Johnson's Brexit deal would leave a hole in the U.K. economy the size of Wales, economists warned.
The agreement struck between the U.K. government and Brussels will leave gross domestic product 3.5 percent lower every year than if Britain remained an EU member, according to new analysis by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).
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Source: politico.eu
Euro area economic and financial developments by institutional sector: second quarter of 2019
October 29, 2019--Euro area net saving increased to €828 billion in the four quarters to the second quarter of 2019, compared with €824 billion in the four quarters to the previous quarter.
Euro area net non-financial investment increased to €590 billion (from €533 billion previously), mainly due to increased investments by non-financial corporations. Euro area net lending to the rest of the world decreased to €251 billion (from €301 billion previously).
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Source: ECB
ECB-Monetary developments in the euro area: September 2019
October 28, 2019-Annual growth rate of broad monetary aggregate M3 decreased to 5.5% in September 2019 from 5.8% in August (revised from 5.7%)
Annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1, comprising currency in circulation and overnight deposits, decreased to 7.9% in September from 8.5% in August
Annual growth rate of adjusted loans to households stood at 3.4% in September, unchanged from previous month
Annual growth rate of adjusted loans to non-financial corporations decreased to 3.7% in September from 4.3% in August.
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Source: ECB
Brexit update: EU agrees to extension as UK election looms
October 28, 2019--The European Union agreed to grant the UK a three-month Brexit delay to January 31, removing the risk of a damaging no-deal split on Thursday as the British government tries to end the impasse in Parliament.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is pushing a vote in the House of Commons on Monday to trigger an early general election, saying it’s the only way to resolve the deadlock that has stopped the UK ratifying the divorce deal with Brussels and prolonged the uncertainty for businesses as Brexit drags on.
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Source: FIN24
European Commission-Juncker Plan has made major impact on EU jobs and growth
October 22, 2019--The Investment Plan for Europe, the Juncker Plan, has played a key role in boosting jobs and growth in the EU. Investments by the European Investment Bank (EIB) Group backed by the Juncker Plan's European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI) have increased EU gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.9% and added 1.1 million jobs compared to the baseline scenario.
By 2022, the Juncker Plan will have increased EU GDP by 1.8% and added 1.7 million jobs. These are the latest calculations by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Economics Department of the EIB Group, based on financing agreements approved until the end of June 2019.
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Source: European Commission
ECB-Euro area monthly balance of payments: August 2019
October 18, 2019--In August 2019 the current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €27 billion, compared with a surplus of €22 billion in July 2019.
In the 12-month period to August 2019, the current account recorded a surplus of €312 billion (2.7% of euro area GDP), compared with a surplus of €398 billion (3.5% of euro area GDP) in the 12 months to August 2018.
In the financial account, euro area residents made net acquisitions of foreign portfolio investment securities totalling €153 billion in the 12-month period to August 2019 (down from €411 billion in the 12 months to August 2018).
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Source: ECB
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