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Forecasts for the UK economy: October 2020
October 21, 2020--Forecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.
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Source: www.gov.uk
IMF-Regional Economic Outlook: Europe
October 21, 2020--The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is exacting a severe social and economic toll on Europe. By mid-October 2020, more than 240,000 people have lost their lives in Europe, while nearly 7 million people are estimated to have been infected with the virus. Early spring lockdowns, voluntary social distancing, and associated disruptions in supply chains and lower demand led to a record collapse in economic activity.
Real GDP fell by about 40 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (annualized quarter-over-quarter), with deeper contraction in advanced Europe, where the virus spread first, relative to emerging Europe.
The pandemic's toll on Europe could have been much larger without the unprecedentedly strong and multifaceted response to the crisis. Across Europe, governments deployed large fiscal packages to support households and firms, with job retention programs preserving at least 54 million jobs.
view the IMF-Regional Economic Outlook: Europe
Source: IMF
ECB-Euro area monthly balance of payments: August 2020
October 20, 2020--Current account recorded €20 billion surplus in August 2020, up from €17 billion in previous month[1]
Current account surplus amounted to €224 billion (1.9% of euro area GDP) in 12 months to August 2020, down from €265 billion (2.2%) one year earlier
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Source: ECB
Almost 60% of Mutual Fund Assets Will Be ESG by 2025, PwC Says
October 19, 2020--ESG investing is the most significant development in money management since the creation of the exchange-traded fund two decades ago and it will reshape finance just as passive funds have.
That's the finding of a new report from PwC that forecasts as much as 57% of mutual fund assets in Europe will be held in funds that consider environmental, social and governance factors by 2025, or 7.6 trillion euros ($8.9 trillion), up from 15.1% at the end of last year.
In addition, 77% of institutional investors surveyed by PwC said they plan to stop buying non-ESG products within the next two years.
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Source: bloomberg.com
ESMA Newsletter-Nº17
October 19, 2020--In September, ESMA has appointed its CCP Supervisory Commitee staff, published the TRV and reviewed the Market Abuse Regulation. In this edition, we also take a look at our full list of ESMA staff external appearances taking place in October and finally catch up on the latest publications.
Along with the TRV report published on 2 September 2020, ESMA has published two working papers on Closet Index Funds and MIFIDII research unbundling.
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Source: ESMA
London Stock Exchange Welcomes Quikro, Tematica Research and HANetf Celebrating its Digital Infrastructure and Connectivity UCITS ETF
October 16, 2020--Europe's first thematic ETF focusing exclusively on digital infrastructure and connectivity has listed on London Stock Exchange.
A first-to-market thematic ETF focusing on digital infrastructure and connectivity1 sponsored by Quikro will launch across Europe via the HANetf platform. The Digital Infrastructure and Connectivity UCITS ETF (DIGI) has listed on London Stock Exchange today.
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Source: londonstockexchange.com
UK: spending to address COVID-19 and Brexit should fit with productivity, social and environmental goals
October 14, 2020--The United Kingdom faces major challenges from the COVID-19 crisis and leaving the EU Single Market. Ramping up investment in the digital economy, the service sector, green infrastructure and adult skills would strengthen the recovery and help to boost productivity and environmental sustainability for the long term, according to a new OECD report.
The latest OECD Economic Survey of the United Kingdom underlines the importance of the emergency support measures put in place to address the coronavirus crisis, but also stresses the need to address longer-term challenges. Active labour market spending for displaced and low-skilled workers should be increased to help workers in sectors with uncertain futures move into quality jobs, and infrastructure spending should focus on the most deprived regions. Low interest rates mean there is room for more stimulus, if needed. Public investment should build on existing efforts to revive productivity growth and transition to a low-carbon economy.
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Source: OECD
New life for an old framework: redesigning the European Union's expenditure and golden fiscal rules
October 14, 2020--This briefing paper focuses on two aspects of the EU fiscal framework: whether an expenditure rule would be more reliable than a structural budget balance rule and the possible benefits and drawbacks of introducing a golden rule to exclude certain types of investment from the operational fiscal rule.
In the context of the review of the EU economic governance framework, this study recommends a multi-year ahead expenditure rule anchored in an appropriate public debt target, augmented with an asymmetric golden rule that provides extra fiscal space only in times of a recession. An improved governance framework should strengthen national fiscal councils and include a European fiscal council, while financial sanctions should be replaced with instruments related to surveillance, positive incentives, market discipline and increased political cost of noncompliance.
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Source: bruegel.org
For the euro there is no shortcut to becoming a dominant currency
October 13, 2020--As an international currency, the euro has always been a distant second to the dollar. The idea of a greater international role for the euro has been floated, but without major institutional reform the euro will not challenge dollar hegemony.
When created two decades ago, the euro immediately became the world's second most important currency. But it has remained a distant second to the US dollar. Its internationalisation peaked in 2005 and went into reverse with the euro crisis, never fully recovering since. Although some predict the demise of the dollar, its global hegemony persists.
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Source: bruegel.org
UK active managers fail to prove their mettle in a bear market
October 12, 2020--Only half of stock pickers outperformed in 2020's volatile markets
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Source: FT.com
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